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This board for a long time was unusual as it contained many knowledgeable, thoughtful and eloquent contributors - thankfully they are all still here (for now). But it has become noticeable as the SP has soared, the quality of posts has been inverse.
I currently don't have anyone on filter, but there's a couple of strong candidates now. Try and cut the BS and *****ing and just post relevant facts and thoughts about ITM.
Thanks Toney man. Oyster project completes in 2024, hopefully ITM will release useful real-world data before that time. Wow can you imagine what the introduction of floating turbine rigs would mean? Instead of North Sea Oil rigs, multiple hectares of anchored windmills in the sea! They'll also provide useful habitat for oceanic fish looking to shelter from those pesky Orca; and Norwegian fishermen.
Boaty, Oyster is one such project that ITM are involved in. There are similar projects from other companies, like the Dolphyn project. This BBC link summarises a few. But you'll have to dig a bit deeper if you want to find some numbers to play with.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55763356
Given all the debate regarding whether turbines possessing onboard electrolysers and ship-shore pipework, produce more energy pound for pound than the traditionally cabled windmills; are there any future studies that people could point to or that are ongoing?
Gigastack, for instance, is more traditional in layout in that the electrolysers are based on land. The same goes for Fife's H100 study into 100% renewable h2 supplying domestic heating (under construction early 2021). The maths for 10MW turbines requiring 2 x 5MW electrolysers goes without saying. £500K per MW in 2-3 years means £5 mn per 10 MW turbine. 300 10MW turbines for the Crown estate offshore of Anglesey and Barrow-in-Furness sites alone = (Potentially) £600 million in revenues for ITM. Plus the subsidiary services mentioned before by Mr Toneman.
https://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/en-gb/media-and-insights/news/2021-offshore-wind-leasing-round-4-signals-major-vote-of-confidence-in-the-uk-s-green-economy/
I'm sure in an ideal ITM world every Watt generated would first be converted to H2. If that were the case then the last 7GW seabed auction would mean 7000MW @ £500k = £3.5Bn revenues (before profit)
I'm naturally still not sure on the comparative efficiencies of the energy lost through generation, alternator conversion to 240AC, (immediate use) cable resistance losses and then restorage of electricity versus say DC wind generation, PEM conversion to H2, transportation by pipes, storage and later reversion to. Brain go pop.
Matter cannot be created or desroyed.Therefor even if a bubble does burst it still exists in another form, possibly an upswing as energy is released.
Mercmark, I base my 1500p on what the market cap of Plug Power in the the USA is standing at.
As far as revenues go, Plug is a little ahead of the game , bit over the next 5 years ITM has the potential to not only catch up but overtake Plug.
That may sound simplistic, but you have to start somewhere in having a stab at the future . One thing is for certain in my mind , ITM as a future growth company in the production of green hydrogen will not be going backwards from its current point , just as I thought it wouldn't be 6 years ago when I first invested after doing a bit of research on Hydrogen generally when it was well under the radar.
1500p in my mind is quite conservative for the 5 year period.
mercmark, we've been given plenty of figures from ITM (and others) to be able to estimate a valuation. They are aiming for £500k per MW in about three years. That places the full factory at £500m target revenue for electrolysers alone. Allowing up to £150m for alternative revenue sources (warranty, service, spares, consultancy, grants) then a direct comparison against similar FTSE 100 industrial manufacturers calculates to £5bn market cap for one GW factory. With today's shares in issue that's a share price of 907p (by 2025).
Now if that's where ITM were going to stop then, sure, today's price is a bit high as we perhaps haven't proven the ability to manufacture at scale yet (or you could argue that we haven't proven the orders will come in). But if you're willing to accept both those things for now, then the next point is how much can ITM grow. A second identical factory by 2030 approximately doubles the market cap, so equivalent to 1800p. Also GC is talking about the next factory being 2GW not 1GW, so combined 3GW business potential by, say, 2032. That would be more like 2700p by 2032.
So the question really is what should the share price look like between now and 2025, then 2030? And the only reason the share price should drop from here is if ITM fail to live up to that expectation. So far they haven't failed. GW factory - check. Large partnerships - check. Massive projects - check. Worldwide potential - check.
There are a couple of reasons to slightly reduce the above figures, but nothing that would materially suggest today's price is too high. I'd like to see a counter argument that values the business lower than today for an open comparison, but if it's based on current production I don't see why that's relevant.
Combined MCAP of BP and Shell is £175 Billion. They are just part of the FF brigade , future demise determined. Their profits are determined by POO , impossible to be certain of , and are considerably held back by exploration and development not to mention infrastructure costs etc. ITM should benefit. Gas grid opportunity at just 20% of supply is how much? Certainly hundreds of Billions. ITM should benefit majorly here too. Replacement of brown , blue H2 on the cards. Some unknowns but the one figure I can see is today’s ITM MCAP of £2.9B. Seems high? Could be the opposite. That’s why the SP is holding up despite the ‘B’ word. People can see the likes of ITM as the next Apple , Tesla , BP and are trusting their vision of the future. Nothing is certain but you either take your best guess or you buy premium bonds. GLA
Sounds to me like the music has changed. Been waiting for ITM to move for over ten years. Its been a no brainer, and suddenly in the last year everyone's woken up Hydrogen has a massive future. But now everyone IS now on board the question is no longer that, but what the price should be. Assertions here, and elsewhere, reasoning that the SP ought to be £15 in five years is based on what ? I have my doubts and that's why I've sold down a lot recently. 600 is a fine return for those who bought a long time ago at around 30p.
Hi Bilbo! But you meant to write 'Bilbao' (the alternate spelling for the Basque city in Spain) not 'Bilboa' I think? Although the character in The Hobbit is just called Bilbo, which I think is what your profile name is named after...
...Anyway thanks for your input and yes happy to stay and contribute. I invested in ITM at an average of 122p, with a plan of holding for a min. of 5 years, and didn't expect it to get to this level this quickly, so thinking I should have sold at the 700p range and cashed in early to buy back lower, but missed that train. My 5 year target is 2000p, so buying more if it goes down to the 300-400p range sounds like a good plan - thanks to everyone for their responses.
However not sure whether I'd want to invest more at this stage as even at 300-400p it is still overvalued, whereas e.g. McPhy Energy has more contracts than ITM I think but a much lower valuation. So why is ITM so popular? Is it bc of the nature of the partners/contracts they have? Or special things about their specific technology?
I thought Jedi might like the spelling ;-)
The two obvious trigger dates (apart from real money) are the
22 April where Biden celebrate Earth Day which will occur after he squares things away with Canada in the next month or so https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-day-summit-will-mark-u-s-return-to-global-climate-talks/ this will be a virtual G20 meeting where the US starts to layout where it is going to be welcomed back into Paris.
then our own great leader will pratt-fall to victory on the virtual G7 on the 11--13 June n Cornwall (as far as you can get from Whitehaven as you can get unless assuming the local council has grown a pair to stop that coal getting out.
Meanwhile, even the great Yorkshire Post has reported today that a sister plant (IN FRANCE) is going Hydrogen/Methane followed by Hydrogen only. I can hear thousands of Yorkshire men spinning in thier grave.
The day we ever get anyone in the Department of Trade who has a scientific background will be the day I jump for joy.
I agree with Tone, it will need the rumour of an important change to get above 740 (but 700 between friends). My June objective is 821-570 if that helps, that is at least 40p higher than here.
Sea, gosh shucks.
I'm always amazed at what everyone else finds out, every morning it is like reading "Electrolyser News" to which I can add only a small weak commentary.
Thanks, I know I spelt the word burgler "wrong" but I spelt my name correctly. You could also argue that I should have spelt Bilbo as Bilboa but I didn't.
BTW I expect the SP to stay this month between 513 and 743 for 97% of the time. Why, because I'm assuming a bell curve of distribution. I have no idea about 300 to 400 but if we assume a bell curve with that 6 sigma distibution I would think that the chance of going into 300 to 400 is just this side of sfa. (probably in the 0.5% chance say, but if I had crystal balls...)
You have to understand we get people on the BB asking the same questions day after day, normally claiming they have been invested with ITM since 27p and they bring very little to the party. Meanwhile the "usual readers" bring massive amounts of information day after day even walking past the factory to advise.
So please stay and contribute, your views are important to us.
Jedi, the drop to 430 yesterday showed that 300-400 is possible especially if the 'so-called bubble' does actually burst. 360p would be approx 50% below peak so to my mind that would make a reasonable support level. Will that happen? Who knows?
Back above 700p could take the UK Hydrogen Strategy paper as the trigger. That government release isn't now expected until end of spring/early summer. I would be surprised if news out of ITM would be enough alone to drive it, unless it was confirmation of a mahoosive order that brings the factory production on target or ahead.
The way I would treat it is this. Pure luck if basic news lifts it over 700 in the near term. Buying opportunity if it falls into 350
territory. And just about any price around here will do if you think, like I do, that the share price will be 1000p in 2 years time.
Jedi. What people feel, think , hope , suggest , etc. on this board quite obviously has no effect whatsoever on the SP. Most of us threw any crystal balls away yonks ago. Good luck trying to work it out and trust Smithy at your peril..... :-)
Thanks everyone for the replies. And thank you bilboburgler for your 'kind' note. I don't think a bunch of people on the internet know the exact answer to those questions given that no one has developed to see a way accurately see into the future yet, obviously. I just wanted to gauge the sentiment on this board and hence the market sentiment for ITM. You do know that investor opinions have an effect on stocks, right?! ...Oh and btw you spelt burglar wrong
Doli. Bilbs made a polite , valid comment in my opinion. Basically who knows how this thing will move , so why ask? If he has filtered you , that is his choice. If you don’t like it I’d suggest reading back through some of your posts. Mostly unrelated to ITM and mostly a biased view on US politics which from memory no-one has bothered to agree with you on. Bilbs is probably the most useful , knowledgeable and relevant poster on this board.
Bilbo lolNo just listen 2 u A person who openly posts how he delights in filtering anyone new to the board or has opinions different to your own pathetic know it all ones I know I’m one of the filtered ones But I also have little doubt u have a few aliases
Well Jedi, JP Morgan seem to believe. So does whoever spent £1 million buying shares this morning!
JP Morgan Cazenove has initiated coverage of renewable energy specialist ITM Power with an 'overweight' rating.
The bank said the Aim-listed hydrogen electrolyser manufacturer was a leader in its field with "strong partnerships and growth", and was now well placed to benefit from a new 1GW manufacturing facility in Sheffield.
It said: "This new facility should help ITM significantly increased electrolyser output and lower unit costs. We expect ITM to turn earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation positive by the 2023 full year, and free cashflow positive by the 2025 full year, as plant utilisation improves and demand for green hydrogen solutions rapidly increases."
JP Morgan concluded: "With global hydrogen electrolyser shipments likely to grow significantly to 2030, we estimate 34% average upside based on our three macro scenarios."
As at 1145 GMT, shares in ITM were ahead nearly 8% at 535.0p. JP Morgan has set a price target of 700p for the stock.
Jedi, just a kind note, why do you think a bunch of strangers on t'internet know the answer to these questions?
Anything is possible in the short term JediJD , but inside the next 5 years today's SP will look very cheap.
I will stick my neck out and way 1500p has to be possible inside the next 5 years at some time with the way green hydrogen is going and the tie ups ITM have with Linde, SNAM and Shell to name but a few.
National Grid are seriously upping the anti to get Hydrogen in the network across the UK, initially 20% , leading to 100% when possible.
That's going to need a lot of Electrolyzers and already ITM are involved with gas to grid projects.
I am not worried about what is happening now , my next review of my long term holding will be in 5 years when I expect to take some more profit out , at at 1500p whatever is the sooner.
How long do people think this will take to recover to the 700-800p range? Will it fall again to the 300-400p range in the short term?