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Dinoken, just checked the board to see what’s happening, I really hope that the regulators pull them through the mill. As I’ve said in previous posts, why have the board excepted this offer, when the previous offer similar to this one greatly under valued the company. Anyway, it seems the board is happy to do a deal with their friends.
Morbox - thx for pointing out the Telegraph article.
Got past the paywall and can scarcely believe the content. Conclusion is that this is not a done deal whatsoever. Highly likely this will drag on for ages and there may well be another (US fund) bidder or even no deal at all.
Key points :
a) "US and UK security and technology watchdogs are gearing up for MONTHS (yes MONTHS) of scrutiny amid heightened sensitivities over critical communications".
b) Deal to be reviewed by secretive branch of the US government (clearly not so secret) known as the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS), which derailed Broadcom’s $117bn (£90bn) offer for Qualcomm last year over concerns about Chinese involvement.
c) Whitehall to assess impact of a private equity takeover on Britain’s industrial strategy (what strategy ? thought strategy was to flog everything off) given ISAT’s investment in hi-tech research.
d) one regulatory expert believes “There is still time for another bidder to enter the process. There are plenty of large US funds that could do this deal by themselves and would be less of a risk to CFIUS”.
e) The Federal Communications Commission is also due to investigate.
f) ISAT ownership of scarce radio spectrum in the US, as well as US Navy reliance on its network, is likely be flagged by security officials.
Expecting brexit extension and sterling rise.
I agree. I'm hanging on the basis of one more Brexit sterling drop. The ex rate is all that will move this. Then who knows, we may cancel this misguided self abuse, have a Bobby Ewing moment, revoke article 50, the pound spring back to $1.50 and I could make a real world profit.
Basscadet, I bailed out today, I decided that the pound could get stronger if a soft brexit gets the vote by the kids in parliament. Of course it could go the other way but after Flybe, I'm a bit shy of risk at the moment.
It's a shame that another tech company is sold off. I would have stayed long on Inmarsat as imo it's got a good future. Could be a chance that the deal falls through, if so I'll be back.
Think it might. Have been shorts closing that pushed this up. Above the offer. I sold out, think the fact the board is so quiet suggests most others have too.
Interesting they think there are other companies that could be interested. I think the picture amongst ISAT's close competitors is that they just don't have the cash.
Basscadet, no I don't pay, but for some reason this morning the article was free to read, the main point was the security fears that the US could have with this equity set-up, but further in the article it states that there's big cash rich US companies that could still be interested in Inmarsat. I personally think it's a done deal and as I said before the old boy's club again.
Not a great deal to say. We're in stasis for the next three weeks.
I don't have the will to get through the Torygraph's paywall Morbox. Seems odd that a mix of UK/US private equity and Canadian pensioners might be seen as potentially more of a security risk than a UK company. If the investigation goes ahead I suppose it could tie our money up a lot longer than the current 30th May payment date.
Weird, very quiet, anyway yesterdays Telegraph article https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/30/us-security-fears-inmarsat-buyout/
Its funny, some of the boards I read have dozens, sometimes over a hundred, of posts everyday even when there is no news for days or weeks. Everyone is so fed up her that in the middle of a takeover no one has posted since Wednesday!
It's going to stay exactly here until Apr 25 unless someone else breaks cover or the market gets word that the deal won't be voted through.
The share has consolidation at 5.50 based on the bid. I can't see any big movement above 5.50 unless a rival bid emerges.
Yep... flybe, ophr now isat same modus operandi i'm at the wrong end of all of them and deep underwater, is it just me or what !!
Very interesting, the boys club, again! Small private investors mean nothing in this game.
Anyone not see this https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-6849133/ALEX-BRUMMER-cosy-Inmarsats-capitulation-private-equity-buyers.html
Is there a margin for error here though? It's only a couple of pence above the offer price.I would think the bidders will try to make sure it doesn't go above here. I'm not sure what tools they have to carry out such manipulation but they will do everything they can.Also, why would anyone buy above this price when there's a very good chance their shares will be sold at it in a few weeks time whether they like it or not?It would take very concerted buying by a very confident bidder to drive it up IMO. If it happens there's almost certainly another bid on but it has be a strong and committed rise.
Seems to be trading today in excess of the bid price, though you have to add in the due dividend and adjust for £/$ movements since the RNS which obviously have an effect. Given the uncertainty and delay between now and final settlement I would have expected a discount, say SP currently in the 520-530 range if the current bid was not expected to be beaten. So what I am saying in a rambling shambolic way is that the Market appears to be expecting another bid
The Echostar bid was regarded by most observers as being lowball. However, it was significantly higher than current bid such that Echostar could easily return with a lower bid than last year which is still at a premium to what Apax are offering. Cannot see current bid not being topped IMO
I too am down, about 15% on this. I do wonder whether the bid is under value or whether the heights of £10+ were simply the opposite - ie the share was never worth anything like that much. Conversely the company does not seem to be ailing since the previous bid was so comprehensively rejected, so it isn't a decision by the board that I feel happy with because of its inconsistency. Hey ho, as small shareholders we don't in all honesty have much of a say and we will have to accept what has happened and move on. Its certainly better than going back to the mid 300's, so some consolation.
Do abstentions count as voting for the deal?
well done Morbox and the Count.........response seems to confirm intent, and another bid is unlikely.
well down on this one.
what sort of timescales are we talking about if another bidder wanted to come in? days rather than weeks? I've no idea on the protocol for this.
Yes I thought it was a standard reply, but at least we got something, Flybe ignored everyone! I think I will be moving on tomorrow, lots of opportunities out there.
I got the very same response from Rupert Pearce. Word for word.