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Seeing I was asked my opinion of share price...here it is.
I respect others views but IMO there HAS been a far from positive (neutral at very best but leaning far more toward negative) news flow/news blackout.....masking setbacks since Christmas. Mainly concerning licence...we should have been FULLY in the picture regarding the issues there. There are many that will continue to say nonsense...everything was to plan re that issue..but I'm not having a bar of that...but that's personal opinion.
I can"t for the life of me see any reputable company signing anything until that is done and dusted So in that respect I believe we"ve been strung along a bit.
There are many that have and will continue to not have a word said against the mantra that the company can do no wrong.
Having said all that...I believe we will prevail....not sure if the FID will be on time. But one thing I AM sure of is that WHEN the licence IS granted after all o jections have been considered, all contracts will immediately fall into place and the SP will take off like an Exocet missile.....make sure you are loaded and strapped in because IMO it will be meteoric.
I though about it for a bit and I'm not sure if that's the case.
Remember that there were parties back in 2018 interested in proceeding with funding deal, despite marine licence process being less advanced back then. For me it shows that negotiations can be successfuly concluded on the provision that licence will be granted and a letter of intent or an agreement in principle can be signed. I'm not quite convinced that the licencing process is holding funding or offtake decision back.
Kibuc,
Exactly, and in my mind if the licence was as big an issue as some have tried to make out and the company had fallen short in it's diligence regarding this then an RNS would have to be issued to the market stating such. I am of the opinion everything is as it should be and it will be resolved as and when it should be. It certainly has nothing to do with the other discussions ongoing at the moment. If it had Infa would have had to say so at the time the other offer arrived, ie discussions are ongoing and other offers are on th table but due to an issue with the full licence application discussions are on hold or may take longer than anticipated!
Nothing of the sort has been stated, in fact all updates point to everything being on track albeit finance discussions are taking longer due to the late arrival of the latest offer.
Therefore nothing to discuss and the next two months should enlighten both shareholders and the market. As i say, be nice if the sp had a little upswing between now and then, I think it will eventually.
Good luck
Mr T
Agree 100% MrT, the Marine License was always known about. The draft license allowed for findings and studies to be carried out as part of the FEED process. This was a pre-req to final submission to request the full license. There is no reason why financing discussions and offtakes cannot be concluded ahead of any license award. In the O&G and mining industry farm outs and financing deals can be completed whilst enviro and survey permit processes are run in conjunction. This is the basis of avoiding delays. The mining license is a lot of noise about nothing created by the NIMBYs because it is the only scrap they can cling to. I have added today.
One of the conditions to convert draft to full licence is finance in place. I'm guessing news on this fairly soon
Spud
That makes perfect sense.
Mr T
Didn’t realise that was also a pre-req Spud but makes even more sense. A lot of noise being created about nothing and all from those with a bias.
"One of the conditions to convert draft to full licence is finance in place."
Are you sure about it? I went through some of the docs available here
https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/articles/marine-licensing
but there's no mention of financing being secured as a pre-requisite. In fact, I don't see why a regulating body would be interested in finances at all. It would be like passing your driving test but only getting your driving licence after you prove that you can afford a car.
Kib,
Put it this way, if you are applying for the licence and you agree to meet all of the standards within the document you are submitting then I would guess you would have to explain where the financing is? to be able to meet all of the standards you would be agreeing to. We are not talking about a Pontoon licence here we are talking about a new infrastructure project worth hundreds of millionsof pounds! if you simply submit the necessary forms and documents with no form of financing in place then it would be dismissed? and quite rightly so?
The Company has to follow the correct procedures here as it has with the draft licence in order to proceed to FEED, look at the application forms and the conditions that have to be adhered to? you will need money and plenty of it, believe me in order to facilitate the conditions.
It may not be a pre requiste of submitting the actual licence application, but in my view it would be pointless applying unless you have the finance in place to be able to act in accordance with the conditions set out within the application.
That's my view.
Mr T
MrT
I agree it would be pointless to apply without having a follow-up plan, but that's a separate issue. Once you've applied, I don't see why the regulator should care whether you have money to complete (or even start) your project. It's job is to determine whether your project, as described in the documentation provided, meets certain environmental standards and requirements prescribed by law.
Preparing and submitting your application takes time and money so, again, I agree it would be unwise to do so only to sit on a licence afterwards, with no money to actually kick things off. That's, however, none of DAERA's concern. Spud said quite clearly that "one of the conditions to convert draft to full licence is finance in place" so I'm curious where it's coming from as I couldn't find any mention of that in available guidance materials.
I'm also trying to draw parallels to the mining industry, explorers in particular, where it's quite common to complete all the permitting work without money in sight. It actually makes a lot of sense - building an underground mine costs some serious dough, which explorecos, being small as they are, simply don't have. Their game plan is to raise money via new share placings after all the paperwork is cleared (which usually boosts share price).
Sometimes, however, market conditions drag the entire sector down and our exploreco is unable to rise enough cash through placing, so they sit iddly on the fully permitted project until conditions improve or sell it to someone who's in better financial position.
In mining it's not the company that receives a mining permit, it's the project itself that gets permitted. It means that the project is green to go regardless of who owns it or runs it, and can be sold without losing its permit. But that also means that financial backing of the project is a non-factor in the permitting process, because:
a) a project is not a legal entity and has no finances of its own
b) a project can be easily sold between companies in completely different financial positions
Spud's incorrect I think Would be interested to get that clarified.
Drawing on my own feild. The local authority/planning dept. don't care if a client can afford an extention/new build. They just want yours plans to meat requirements and adhere to building code. And take a fee, obviously.
Just sayin'
I think I read it somewhere but I of course could be mistaken.
Hi Spud - from memory someone did a series of tweets about the marine licence form and once of questions it showed was about adequate funding for project - did a tweet search and didnt find it but was definitely shown - not much help im sure but i remember seeing it at the time (maybe a month or so ago)
https://twitter.com/FabulousFuture2/status/1115168807016902658?s=19 Found it!
I found this document on DAERA page, a Q&A pdf which has been recently updated (April the 17th).
https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/daera/QUESTIONS%20%26%20ANSWERS%20%20version%202%2C%20April%202019%20%20ML%2028_12%20applic....pdf
"The total Environmental Statement, which will include updated
documents from the original have been requested. Once the Company has submitted these,
DAERA will review and instruct the Company to make the documents available for public
consultation in due course. "
If I understand it correctly, they are still waiting for some paperwork to be delivered by Infa which will be then assessed and only then public consultations will start. Which makes me think that the consultations and workshops that occured in March were not part of the process.
Thanks spud, interesting stuff.
that's the one Spud - im not senile after all - phew
Thanks Spud.
As I said earlier all makes perfect sense to me.
Mr T