The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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I agree with the need for an update tbh, as this was expected well before q1 end and if honesty was promised then unless it's been rushed through at the 11th hour to avoid the need for a "delay" RNS then most likely the update will be a notification of a further delay like 2nd Feb was. If there's reason to hang around and the waiting time is clearly defined then I may average down off the inevitable drop due to a further delay to getting the 300k in the bank. Hopefully the less likely scenario is going to happen and we get a RNS at 3pm confirming the 300k deal is sorted and have a crazy final 1.5 hours :) lets see how it goes.
and also he did state he will be honest with investors - so an update required today - regardless of outcome
As the boss did state in the video back in early February 'I believe it will come within this quarter and fingers crossed a lot earlier' - today is the deadline.
Knic - if an update doesn't come today why would you consider it a failure ?
Or will consider it a failure
Thanks very much for the very informative posts lads, both recommended by myself.
Given that an agreement us in place subject to DD they would need a good reason not to go ahead. I can't help feeling that if it was obvious that DD was a problem we would have heard about it before now. We are beholden to the Canadian firm and they are taking their time to pay us, which us the same as any small organisation is treated when dealing with a bigger firm.
As far as I remember depending on the value of the first deal or deals ( $30m ) its $300k upfront then $300k paid over 5 years. Chatting to IC and BH at TWs evening its a fairly complex deal totally in the hands of the Canadian company which has a patented algorithm for buying these life policies. Inc will run them and reinsure them with Lloyds (£500m cover already in place) then issue AA rated bonds to pay the investor back. He did say the Canadian side was slow. This is a total punt on the Canadians marketing their wares but if it comes off the longer term benefit for Inc will be substantial considering their present market cap. The Canadian company want to float when they are up and running and Inc already have an 18% stake in them, could be worth many times the present MCap but a very patient punt all the same.
Morning Terrafin, that's it mate. Forgive me if my figures are a little bit out but essentially it's $300k paid every quarter for either 3 or 5 years (one of the two) so a lot of money being handed over ultimately. So because of this they're not just gonna hand over the initial payment until the partners are 100% satisfied with the DD and that the processes / benefits suit their needs. It's a budding company and IC hasn't been there long either so it'll take time. Plus dealing 'transatlanticly' will slow the whole process down too. It'll take time and unfortunately means a lot of us will have our patience tested waiting for news. Best thing to do is switch off or concentrate on other shares in the meantime. I do believe it'll be worth the wait so I'm hanging around for a whole yet. Thanks for your post Terrafin :)
Morning SMS - I see things the way you do - Due Dil takes time ( esp if these are big contracts) - unfortunately Ivan has no control at present over the DD - nothing has changed for me - patience pays .....
Many thanks. ATB
Morning Smudge, very sorry you feel like this but you have to go with your gut. It is taking a while I agree but I don't feel spooked enough yet into selling so I'm hanging around for a while longer yet. You have to do what you think is right. Best of luck with your future investments.
to sell here. Taking far too long to get this £300k through the door imv. Hope it works out for all remaining holders. GL
IC I mean, think I got mixed up between Ivan and IC lol
Great posts lads, I don't think IV would have said well before the end of Q1 if he didn't believe it. Sadly the DD has took well longer than he (or us) would have expected. I totally agree that if there was something fundamentally wrong it would have to be mentioned in a RNS due to price sensitivity. It will just happen for us when we least expect it, and yes I do think that the longer it goes on the more short term traders will sell and move on. Personally I'm not watching a 3 hour movie and missing the ending, that's why the Green Mile and Shawshank were such great movies, because they had powerful endings as well as a great story-lines. I'm here till the end, at least of the 300k saga then review my investment then. If there's more to come then I might stay further.
Ivan mentioned Q1, the problem is that TW speculated that the timeline would be much shorter and a number of people have managed to read far too much into it. There are a number of people here for a quick buck and may well get bored and leave in the next few weeks but with the increased free float following the recent conversions the effects shouldn't be as extreme as we have seen in the past. Ignore the rampers and derampers who will become deafening as the next few days progress and listen to a number of the reasoned posters such as Notperfect who try to put things into perspective.
Ivan's problem is that he set the expectation of Q1 in the TW presentation. In reality he isn't in control of the process as the partners are the people carrying out the due diligence and they'll take as long as they need for such a complex product. If there was anything specifically wrong then INC would have had to put out an RNS by now, and I suspect the two increased holdings RNS wouldn't have happened either. But I agree with you that people will get nervous if nothing positive is released before April. No bad news either might make for an interesting punt later next week.
Quote from Tom Winnifrith 09/02/15: "So where now? We expect the $300,000 to arrive a lot sooner than the “during Q1” Mr Couchman said during the seminar. Having been caught with his trousers down once on this sum we think he is underpromising to over-deliver this time. And we also expect other contracts to follow. On the maths Mr Couchman explained when quizzed by TW at the end of his formal presentation that makes the shares look cheap." With the end of the 1st quarter 2 days away this is now surely a gamble on whether INC receive $ or contracts before the 31st. If not they will have to put out some kind of explanation for the delay, and if they do the SP will tank. I sold out a while back but kept an eye on it. There is really something wrong here IMO, if you don't get an RNS by 31st then huge drop I fear.
Yup, nice 2x 3.5m buys too. Surely it won't be long now before the re-rate occurs...
The price goes up - we live in interesting times
Indeed. 6.6m volume out of nowhere. Part of me wants to think this is someone in the know building a position before news but in realty it is someone just taking a punt like us and hoping for impending news.
ment
Evening rural I can't explain it from a level two perspective. But it's normally mms trying to cause panic by dropping it off every small sell, a bit like a shake. Only it doesn't work either as everyone is either too stubborn to sell and is waiting for the 300k RNS only and / or has totally switched off from the share in the meantime lol. Either way it had no effect. I guess it was a way to try and create volume, but it failed.
That is a massive price change for such a small volume. Can anyone with L2 explain this?
Nice summary Rural - indeed recent buy ins , updated websites etc all seems to point this in one direction ...