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New British Airways 747
https://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2022-01-21/inside-the-british-airways-747-thats-been-turned-into-a-party-plane
people forget that day 2 test removal will be another boost to the airline...and its coming soon...
GLA.
An Irishman who refused to wear a Covid mask during a flight from Dublin to New York and exposed his rear end to a flight attendant faces up to 20 years in prison if convicted of assault, the US justice department said on Friday.
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/22/irishman-faces-20-years-in-jail-after-exposing-himself-on-flight-to-new-york
US State Dept orders families of Embassy personnel in Ukraine to leave
https://mol.im/a/10430381
very good, completly agree, and would add that the IAG cash flow is now rocketing. Just look online at a club seat and it's about 4 times what it was pre-pandemic.
Threats are global instability aka russia/china/the west
operational issues like covid lockdowns/local wars/ knee jerk government behaviour
Market jitters as we are currently seeing
Oil price inflation
Whilst those are not all the risks, they are perhaps the biggest risks for the next few months until markets/governments settle.
And ia gree IAG is undervalued that's why i'm holding and not selling evn on dips as it's too difficult to predict when it will rise rapidly.
Also january is traditionally panic month like october!.
Come end of month SP might fall even further but i think there is pent up good news which has been out there a few weeks now but is not reflected in the SP hence undervalued...
GLA
On the Russian conflict, I dont think that's really the main driver of yesterdays 3% drop. The FTSE dropped mainly because of poor economic indicators with a higher expectation of interest rate rises shortly to come. The market seems to be in a "risk off" mode at the moment and nearly all equities suffer in these moments. IAG is not immune to these and these tend to overwhelm any stock specific concerns.
But I wouldnt forget that IAG is 1/3 of where is was in March 2020 whereas the FTSE is actually above that level. So whilst I think the FTSE is overvalued I dont think IAG is...
Yes Russia is a tiny player in the grand scheme of things, GDP less than Italy...
But we are witnessing the end of Pax Americana in real tie without a shadow of a doubt. How can a country where the zeitgeist and national debate seems to be one of pushing shame and regret over much of the countries history have a future? How can a country that seems to lurch from one trivial debate over the most trivial and pathetic of things (can non-gay actors lay gay characters???) have a future? How can a country where the two parties bicker and loath one another have a future? How can an economy with the debt levels and money printing of the USA have a future?
It is not Russia which threatens USA, but China. Their press is full of loathing and mocking over the US paralysis and decadence and they are correct. I would compare the situation to that of the British Empire in 1945. Still powerful, still capable of military action but truly a spend force in its death knells.
The US had a GDP of approx 30 trillion dollars in 2020 compared to that of 1.483 trillion for Russia.
Russia is not now and NEVER has beem a big economic player.
The French economy had a 2.7 trillion GDP for 2020 and the German economy trillion. Ireland alone (population of 5 million) 419 billion dollars (just 3.5 times smaller than that of Russia)....
The Russian economy is a pipsqueak in terms of its population of 145 million inhabitants and a last surface area of over 17 million square kilometers....nearly 71 times the size of the UK in surface area.
More than 40% of its output is spent on its military strength while most of its people, apart from the Oligarchs, have barely enough to live on....average salary of less than 200 dollars per month!
So Russia is punching way above its weight.
As for a recovery in the airline industry, I think it will explode upwards in 2022. I really believe that the pandemic is peetering out.........I expect to double my initial buy in price by the end of the year...I expect all airlines apart from Lufthansa maybe to express strong growth including American airlines, Air France/KLM etc..... If oil prices drop, the SP increase shall be even more impressive.