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Evening again Luke,
I do agree 10p would be a nice consolidation point from which to build on .
Ever the optimist ,
Hairy Futtret
Good evening Luke,
I like your comments. You come across as a very sound chap .
I think we will be ok with Horizonte. Patience is a virtue which thankfully I have stacks of going by the 14 or so years I have been invested in Brewdog.
Mineral resources are going to be a hot commodity in the next few years and I fully agree with PP about us being in the right place at the right time with Horizonte.
Personally I hope all my investments make me a kings ransom but only time will tell.
Enjoy the evening friend,
Hairy Futtret
10p would be nice though for about the third time.
Thanks Hairy I expect to lose most of my money on any Aim investment and sometimes it has come true, luckily with my grade 4 CSE Maths all these calculations are lost on me.
Good evening Picked P ,
As an add-on to your very well put post which I did thumbs up.
Other firms are very slowly transforming from exploration to production. What I am away to say regarding several of my investments are " dont put all your eggs in one basket " unless you are the owner and have absolutely no choice but to do so to keep a roof over thy head.
Hence my reason for having a mixed portfolio of FTSE 100, 250, AIM and Brewdog.
I have a lot of faith in my junior miners and can see the financial benefits ahead. Some will be sooner rather than later .
Horizonte is one I have held for over a year and fully intend to keep till next summer when I shall review for the year ahead.
Kodal is another who is on the cusp of great rewards with a decent rise today with a payment system for Bernie and chums only when production starts.
POW is a long term burner with an awful lot of irons in the fire while PREM is sitting on a huge resource in Zulu but whose communication tends to be all down to interpretation and whose board often feel more like a casino .
As for Keras , please wake me up sometime next century when a license has been issued .
Ladies and gentlemen, we are in this game to make money. I remember reading the updates about Dana Petroleum when I had a few bob invested in them years ago when Tom Cross was boss. The LSE board was easily accessible back then.
I joined this board recently as there was a spell when LSE weren't allowing "outsiders "to look in . This may have been through a technical hitch or perhaps to get more folk involved.
I thoroughly enjoy the chat on most of my investments but have to say that some are less than civil . Well done to my Horizonte friends for keeping things positive.
All the best folks, between 25-35p is my initial target going by debt to shares which I did a rough calculation a wee while back. . Future value of resource is hypothetical as lord only knows what the availability and requirements are going to be on commodities in a year plus .
To Bwana , Strummer, wasa , Lawrence, luke and PP et al ,
Have a lovely evening and here's hoping for the share price to be heading north . Enthusiasm is a good thing but that has to be tempered with reality.
Hairy Futtret
For me, the T/O would hopefully fetch a higher price than 25-30p though. Rationale there is, by then, the market should be pricing some for A2 and V, and if A1 is already worth 40p at production, maybe slightly less before then. A buyer would have to pay some premium. And if nickel price has risen in the next 2 years hopefully so has Horizonte's shareprice. So hopefully we are already at 30p when they make an offer and they can't buy us for a paltry premium on that number.
This is where 'who the strategic is' gets interesting of course because if it is the eventual T/O then they can probably buy us slightly more cheaply as they can offer on 70% of the shares and need whatever % to accept the terms of the deal. I think it becomes difficult for someone else to buy it, if, as PP says, a miner like Teck (or for that matter Glencore) are the strategic investor and they hold the 30%.
Hmm very interesting indeed, the manner in which HZM have conducted themselves e.g .very calm and not diverted from 'end of September' suggests to me they have the offers on the table already, and that may be the case?
In other words, we have offers we are happy with, unless someone can submit a better offer by 30th Sep, we will go with X and Y etc.
Certainly comes across that way and if so then the deal should be very favourable, I am just not sure how you can conclusively state funding will be done by end of Sep (which they have said multiple times now and even tweeted it today) and then announce a delay, surely you have what you need on the table or is that not right, would that be sensitive?
Hi GLR I nearly replied on twitter but I'll reply here. For me 'ideal scenario' is 2.5bn shares in issue including options. That would mean 700m new shares, which would probably need to be at 10p+ to raise ~$100m USD with the balance coming from offtake / debt.
The key here is, the deal doesn't have to be 'jackpot' to still be a very very good deal. Is the jackpot possible? Not sure. So I'm really happy with 3bn shares.
To PPs post on valuation, I think T/O still likely who knows the price and when it happens. I got excited at the 150p valuation when I realised that would be an '88 bagger' on the ones I picked up in the dark days of City Financial selling down. Like PP I don't think we'll ever get that far! For my money the T/O happens close to, or at, Araguaia first production - it is the obvious timeframe and by then Vermelho should be DFS + permitted possibly.
For me a win win scenario would be a bidding war between two or more large holders. We could get a high price in a shorter term.
For anyone clued up here more than me, what type of deal would be a jackpot scenario and what type of deal would be disappointing?
Good afternoon Picked P,
There most certainly are exploration companies bigging themselves up to exaggerated levels. I dare say quite a few of us have shares in them .
Horizonte are looking very good just now and like the rest of you I am anticipating a bit of good news and share price uplift at the end of September.
Here's to good news,
Hairy Futtret
Hairy - FPX are onky at PEA stage. I think they are making a lot of claims that are not yet bankable. They are at least 4-5 years, and more like 6 or 7 years behind HZM in the cycle. They also need 3x the capex for their initial mine plan, which may well increase again at the DFS stage.
Does everyone understand that this finance package agreement is the transition point for HZM from being an explorer to a miner?
All of the stages to date have been about discovery, describing the concept, creating a business case and executable plan. From this finance package on it will all be about building the mine and plant, extracting and selling the nickel. Sure there is the other mine(s) to go through the same development cycle, but this really is THE watershed point all the junior companies dream of.
Good afternoon Wasa.
Artisanal mining sounds very painful. I suppose it gives an alternative to Brownfield mining .
If Tesla like their Artisanal mining then that's all well and good.
On a more serious note I believe FPX claim to be one of the greenest nickel miners in the world. They are listed in Vancouver.
Enjoy the sunshine folks,
Hairy Futtret
Dont worry, most mines across the world are just a hole in the ground with a liar pointing at it.
>>Artisanal nickel mining
Sorry probably shouldn't joke but isn't this how Tesla get their cobalt currently for their batteries? Obviously that needs to change - queue Vermelho...
Artisanal nickel mining. I like it.
Here is the equivalent of the Haynes manual:
https://www.onemine.org/document/abstract.cfm?docid=207818&title=Nickel-Laterite-Rotary-KilnElectric-Furnace-Plant-Of-The-Future
Need to shift a few wheelbarrows worth, need some scaffolding planks for the barrow track from the mine to the kiln, and somewhere to plug the kiln in. I wonder if a UK bought kiln would have the right plug attached for a Brazilian socket?
I'm a software engineer and completely useless at practical things but if the mining is as easy as pickedpeck says it is (i.e. you order a small furnace off amazon, then head over with shovels and wheelbarrow) then if they don't get it financed and start building by Q4 I suggest we book some tickets out and start shovelling it ourselves. Apparently at the moment over $1bn of nickel under the ground is mine and I want it out damn it....
LOL I'm also a SSM, nickel must attract us :)
I'll quit flatbashing and build the mine with u. a JV :)
GLA
What I was getting at is JM doesn't need to offer Pi's to take part in any placing.
I have no doubt equity will be issued my question is simply - who to. Strategic (only?) Other IIs (as well)? Lowly PIs/existing holders, or even a more general market placing? We will find out.
I’m a senior site manager - I may send my CV in to JM and take over the reigns on building the mine.
Mind you I haven’t a clue what building a mine is like, but at least I could report back on progress haha!
Read points 9 and 10 on the last agm results Wasa.
"then this is the catalyst for finalising the other components of the funding, the offtake, the strategic investor."
There is a notable (by its absence) mention of any further equity component or market placing. Is all I'm saying.
Though the language in the snippet does to me read that the other components of financing news (other than debt) will be later, not in September (perhaps October) as 'you can expect a steady stream of news flow linked to each of these pieces as we move through to the end of the year'. One of the pieces being 'start of construction of Araguaia.
My best guess is - other financing pieces in October, start of construction in November/December. GLA
I agree with the suggestion that this is as clear a signal as anyone is going to get but also agree with the note of caution as it’s always wise to keep a level headed approach.
Let’s wait and see!