Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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why did I think it's Friday ?
I know, it's my other half's last day of her shift today!
maybe I need a weekend off :-)
not much movement in the dockyard today... it's Friday, so work starts again tomorrow.
Any news / movement on the ship today?
Cebo, many things happen with regards to tanker planning. Shutdowns are planned in during any particular loading window, so that one time you may have 10days before the next tanker or 12 days. It isnt as you say solely dependent on flow rates from the wells.
There are many other variables which contribute towards this.
We have to remember also that weather plays a part and with the greatest will in the world an FPSO around the UK coast will be in the top quartile if it manages +90% uptime for production.
Rigs are stable, FPSO's not so much.
Also, as im sure you are aware, ancillary equipment need to be tested and recertified at regular intervals. This includes offlloading hose strings etc and im sure that you more than most know all about the potential for delays during such a thing <wink> <wink>
Parcel size is the term and it 500,000 bbls https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.bluewater.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Aoka-Mizu.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjisOPD1O3cAhWrAsAKHR4UB68QFjAAegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw1npVUaHeWsHY62EVt14AqE
Cebo,
"Frequency of tankers will tell very little unless you know how many barrels has been unloaded"
Quite agree. But 'furtling around' here and there trying to get more detail on the Aoka Mizu's tech specs I came upon a little nugget. And unfortunately (stupidly) didn't bookmark the page, so can't pass on the reference. But it was under a term I'd never heard of before, but knowing your line of business, maybe you have. And that term was 'offload package size', with a figure given in thousands of barrels. (Or rather a multiple of thousands! :-)) ) Plus added to that was offload volume times (again in thousands of bbl / hr).
And sorry, no, I'm not going to quote the figures here, because although I've got 'em in my head, I don't have the reference to hand, and my memory could be wrong. But I've got plenty of time before I need to re-find the reference: a few months.
But here's the thing. I'm not going to teach my grandmother to suck eggs. But you know as well as I do that offload is dynamic and related to volume more than time. The tanker doesn't do some sort of 'rounds' on a set schedule, sometimes taking on 100,000 bbl, another time 400,000. It's not a milk-truck going round dairy farms, after all. And those volumes are related to 'offload package size'. And furthermore, those tanker skippers DO reset their draught readings on AIS. And tanker draught is directly proportional to load volume, unlike that of the FPSO.
Plus we know thet it'll be BP doing the tanker side of things, and we can be pretty dam sure they'll be the same ones turning up on your doorstep for the churns!!!
And anyway, you know perfectly well that this is all under discussion elsewhere already, and via the shipwatchers' PM underground grapevine.
Why discuss it here?
Sure, they'll be rough figures only, especially at the start. But rough figures are better than none at all.
Have I missed the RNS about any more NEDs being added yet? as it seems to have gone a little quiet in that from. No rush but I did think that we would have seen a couple by now, unless there is another reason for holding off with the appointments. Just asking.
Frequency of tankers will tell very little unless you know how many barrels has been unloaded, and even then any shutdown or reduced production could be as much to do with systems and equipment, as it has to do with well performance (which is what we want to really know). The production Techs, Mechy's, Marine team and all Management in the AM will know exactly how much is being produced for any given period so anyone with contacts in that field may get the heads up. (Off course it goes without saying that if they did know then it would be unwise to post that info on a public forum, or to trade using info not in the public domain).
possibly, let's see what we can see when we get there. (or who we know :-)
When EPS starts, how accurately will the shipwatchers be able to comment on actual production in advance of Hurricanes official production numbers ? Would it be a viable stategy for the shipwatchers to count the frequency of shuttle tanker loads leaving the AM to deterrmine likely production?