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ngms27,
If you stand that you are correct with your figures, can you at least explain how your following statement is true for September?:
"30 days @ 15k bopd" when a week-long shutdown is 7 days and production as highlighted by Hurricane is at c. 15k bopd.
Strongly advise everyone to check through any posts made here in their own time.
Slift.
I’ve already apologised multiple times for a memory gaff. Nothing deliberate.
It’s easily done as in June 2021 they have to decide whether the FPSO is contracted to Mid 2025 or only to Mid 2022.
2 more 27 million share trades gone through... Cannot buy 1 million shares...
Nope still nothing wrong with my figures. It’s a pure example that clearly highlights that at the low end of guidance HUR will likely be loss making around the new year @ $40
Whether this comes true who knows but HUR management clearly believes this is one possible outcome.
Agendas.....this is a man who was telling everyone on ADVFN the bonds are due in summer 2021....misleading? Only slightly.
ngms27,
Even if you considered AM uptime of 95% in your figures (although you haven't stated), the consideration of the september week long shutdown puts your "example" at 11.5k bopd. BELOW Hurricane's guidance.
"Maths not your strong point?"
I think you should be asking yourself this.
Slift.
Nothing wrong with my figures, they are monthly averages that incorporate any downtime.
Maths not your strong point?
ngms,
Your example does not consider two key elements:
- September week long shutdown.
- AM uptime
Which puts your example at 10.9k bopd at 95% efficiency.
Now try calculating again.
Why I’m within HURs guidance of 12 to 14k between September and December.
My example is 12.3k bopd
ngms27,
I think Hurricane should be fine until at least H2 21. The actions Hurricane have taken so far COULD be good to keep them going until H2 2021:
- Shutting down well 7z
- Increasing well 6 to 18.3k total barrels/day
The above has multiple effects.
- Decreases rate of decline in BHP (18.3k barrels produced vs c. 25k with 7z and 6)
- Pressure drop in well decreased with the operation of one well and lower total barrels produced (hence slower rise in OWC)
- Well 7z ESPs not in operation (Operation/Electrical costs saved)
- Lower costs associated with AM due to less fluids treated
- etc.
I think you're very pessimistic if you think Hurricane will be at 9.5k bopd by December. But we're all entitled to opinions! I think I share your view on the LONG TERM future of this company though.
P.S. Not invested here.
Slift.
ngm - i seem to remember that in the presentation they said it would not be an issue before 2021. i can understand people being doubtful mid 2020 but I think you are being disingenuous to suggest by December?
i suspect water cut may increase steadily but why do you think production will be lower so quickly?
30 days X 15k bopd = 450,000 barrels.
450,000 barrels X $40 oil - nets $18m turnover
450,000 barrels X $45 oil - nets $20.25m turnover
450,000 barrels X $50 oil - nets $22.5m turnover
450,000 barrels X $60 oil - nets $27m turnover
Yes, profit is perhaps 6m a month, that's 72m a year. What are the CBs going to do....continue collecting 7.5% a quarter and kick repayment of principal down road....remediation, remediation, remediation
That’s your opinion not one I share.
For example $400,000 per day is break even.
30 days @ 15k bopd nets $6m not $20m @ $40 oil
Then consider October when they are down to say 13.5k bopd add $4.2m
Then November 11.5k bopd add $1.8m
December 9.5k bopd. Oh dear we made a loss of $600k
Using my interpretation they will do well to make another $20m net before loss making.
Manipulation of sp is what it is.
Cash is king and they are making plenty in a bad market ...and another $20 million...
and every tanker filled..share price goes down.. to 40p.. to 12p..to 6p.. now 2.7p.. where is issue?
Keeping pumping crude at 15k a day and fill a tanker
Once a month.
And another $20 million, and another $20 million, oh .. and another $20 million.....