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Hi JiffyBag,
See the night-shift's still on ! Despite being in a totally silent country place for now with just a delightful nightingale occasionally bursting into song, I can't sleep properly. 'Lockdown' has had its effects.
"For now we are just treading water are we not? "
Yes, I think so.
Despite the numbskulls expecting lots of 'news' from the AGM, depite us having been informed that no 'business updates' would be issued at that meeting, I too feel we're a bit in limbo. The rig hasn't moved. I very strongly suspect 'force majeur' clauses have been invoked regarding the contract.
Despite some rumours surfacing here and there, we don't know current production figures.
But the thing is, we ain't the only ones. The company isn't going to go broke tomorrow. Whereas some run that risk.
'Treading water' ? That takes some effort. I prefer this, sad as it may be...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9GhL7LagNE
Last post before going to bed:
I don't know at what price you started buying, Double, but I think they were floated at 43p and I bought my first lot a few months later at just above 40p.
I'm familiar with the argument about dilution, e.g. 'if the number of shares in issue doubles, then 40p before is equivalent to 20p after,' but the fact is that anyone buying at flotation and holding long term doesn't have his share certificate altered to reflect that. If he bought a 0.1p share, it stays that way unless the company rearranges its share capital.
As I've said before, if share prices are really expected to fall in order to reflect the dilution, why would anyone ever invest in a growth company (which inevitably issues shares in order to grow)?
So, my question is: what is toppy about a share whose flotation price was 43p reaching the 60s?
Longwait,
" I don't think the fact that people regret not having sold at 30, 50 or 60p, will prevent the price from recovering the whole way"
Hmm. I'm not as confident as you seem to be.
Just before replying, and reading your post, I was about to write saying I don't 'feel regret' (to quote Edith Piaf). When I suddenly realised that that was the word I'd used in my own, earlier post ! Please delete that word 'regret', and instead insert 'giving myself a hearty self-inflicted kick up the backside', even if it's a physical impossibility, or at least a bit of gymnastics I'm not going to attempt.
Because to be honest, I couldn't really understant the heady heights of the SP at its highs, either, unless (once again) there was a 'takeover rumour'. And back then, the basis for a potential was far more concretely tenuous than it actually is now. Don't forget that Hurricane's quaintly-called 'data-room' is something more appropriately described as a 'data-warehouse', including receipts for a number of tankerloads of oil sold into market via BP.
But at the same time, during the SP-catastrophic 'slide' of the last few months, and having decided to increase one's holding through top-ups, thereby 'averaging down' and just about ocasionally breathing air, even if one's head isn't all the time above water, surely one should become more modest about one's sell-out price?
There's nothing I'd like better than to see this go up to the 50p range once more, but I suspect I'll have bailed out two thirds of the way to there, for fear of not reaching altitude. Of course, if that happens, I'll be doing all sorts of own-arse-kicking acrobatics again, but that's just the name of the game.
Of course you're right, Double, about past price movements, but I don't think the fact that people regret not having sold at 30, 50 or 60p, will prevent the price from recovering the whole way, even if some sell on the way back up.
Unless, of course, markets 'will never be the same again.'
My thoughts, FWIW and in my honest opinion are:
No company is going to make an offer at this juncture whilst we rely on Lanc 6 & hopefully a full resumption of 7z output?
The way I see it in all honesty, is that we will have to wait until completion of HUR licence obligations albeit a extension and a meaningful forward looking drilling strategy put forward for Lancaster aided of course by a revised CPR .
For now we are just treading water are we not? the sooner the Centrica/Spirit isssue is resolved the sooner we can all move on.
Fred_Bloggs,
" I would be out like a shot for 30p, be delighted with 33p. For fun, I'd sell 90% of my shares and hang on to the rump holding."
You and me too ! With 20 / 20 hindsight, I deeply regret the way I handled my last 'topslice', which was 10% at 53p. It should have been 90% ! But I'm just so interested in the 'Hurricane story' that I allowed emotion to block common sense. Or was it really so blind? I don't think anyone could have foreseen the SP coming down to the current catastrophic and inexplicable levels.
I know someone else who for personal reasons essentially 'bailed out' (maybe not completely) when the 'slide' hit the mid-30p level. And I bet they're now glad to have done so then, rather than waiting.
Equally interesting, adoubleuk, I would be out like a shot for 30p, be delighted with 33p. For fun, I'd sell 90% of my shares and hang on to the rump holding.
Longwait,
"I think your estimate is way out, FB, and that you're allowing recent share price movements to override any reasonable valuation.
I am certain that the BOD and major shareholders would turn down such an offer as derisory and that it is so obviously derisory that it wouldn't be made in the first place.3
Hey ! Cut Fred_Bloggs some slack ! I asked him what he reckoned (in his opinion) would be a 'lowball' offer, and he's replied. I was asking about 'lowball', not an actual 'valuation' !
I find his answer interesting. And definitely 'low'. Myself I was thinking more in the 30p sort of range. I think even then, the BoD and some shareholders might fight hard against it, but possibly not all of them. How about 33p, a penny above the last placement price? It's all totally hypothetical, but I could understand the thinking of having just made a little profit, so take it and leave the thing to someone else. And of course whoever's buying in right now would be absolutely over the moon.
I'm exceedingly wary and sceptical of wild rumours about takeovers. But we do live in interesting times. And let's never forget that our major shareholder Kerogen is essentially Hong Kong based, despite its London offices. And some people 'blame' the start of the last eight months' slippery-slope downhill slide in the SP on Kerogen having done an 'untimely' and unexplained sell...
A conspiracy-theorist could probably come up with a nice strategic idea about that.
I hope to be as wrong as possible, LONGWAIT. I hope you're right. I think a super major farm in is a fantasy myself. Companies more likely to partner HUR going forward are like Rockrose, Siccar Point, Chrysaor I expect.
The picture I paint though has come to pass many times on AIM, most recently at Amerisur. It would be naive to think it couldn't happen here.
I think your estimate is way out, FB, and that you're allowing recent share price movements to override any reasonable valuation.
I honestly don't know why majors who are not prepared even to farm into Lincoln would be prepared to buy it, along with the other assets, outright.
If, in a year's time, production is back up to 18 kbopd and Brent is back to $50 +, your 20p per share estimate is going to look even more ridiculous.
I am certain that the BOD and major shareholders would turn down such an offer as derisory and that it is so obviously derisory that it wouldn't be made in the first place.
"But out of interest, what sort of sum per share would you call 'lowball' right now?"
20 to22p would be a knockout blow. We'd all be ex-shareholders with the majority (including myself) taking a haircut.
Fred_Bloggs,
"Low ball bid soon."
Uh-ho. Had to happen. A new 'takeover rumour' !
But out of interest, what sort of sum per share would you call 'lowball' right now?
Low ball bid soon. Just like at Amerisur? Lots of little guys lose again.
someone is seriously loading up on stock hear