The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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I think the concern is that it is so virulent a range of 1-3 to 1-5 compared to flu 1-1.3. Whilst the majority of people recover that means a lot of sickies, and it’s nasty and a lot of fear and as pointed out a massive macro impact. Kinda why I think there is so much value in domestic oil bt then if the market doesn’t agree I just as well wait a little longer...
A bit off topic but here are some facts...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.sciencealert.com/large-chinese-study-finds-most-coronavirus-infections-are-mild
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2231453-new-coronavirus-may-be-much-more-contagious-than-initially-thought/
Trek
The weather in WOS this week doesn't look to bad either.
Orkney harbour website now saying Petroatlantic leaving at 1.00 hours on 25th February destination unknown at present
Actually the death rate and the rate of people who have contracted it is far higher than the media states. The issue here though is not the Virus... which is Pneumonia not flu.... no connection at all. It has nothing to do with dead, people are locked down and can not work. It is the fact the second largest economy had closed down. Banks opened today for the first time, many stores are just opening and people on the street where roads had been epty since beginning January. for an economy this big this is a massive issue and more so for companies around the world that rely on the products that stopped being produced for more than a month and potentially longer.... and now Japan, Iran, Italy and Korea are struggling with it though economic slow down will be limited it strikes a chord incase. Japan is the third largest economy. Italy is in top 10. Korea major supplier and Manufacturer.
In my opinion, the ONLY way this share is going to rise is if:
1. Oil price goes up which it isn't right now due to reports the Coronavirus is extending outside China
2. There is positive news on the field development plans (OGA & partner stuff)
3. There is positive news on the EPS for which we'll have to wait until the CMD or some other official communication from the company e.g. results
Until then it's going to be under pressure. That said, it's been under so much pressure there possibly isn't the same downside potential.
all oilers taking a beating today Brent down 3%
I don’t get it, surely there’ll be a time when domestic oil becomes more valuable. Am I too far ahead of the curve or just ignorant, don’t! it’s a rhetorical question from the sidelines scratching my head.
Trek
It's your grammar that's deficient not your spelling..................
So based purely on the carnage evident in the futures markets + renewed panic spreading through markets about coronavirus - i think this week will be another write off.
We may as well bury our heads for a while.