Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Aduk,
Surely must have an rns tomorrow detailing the work programme, at least for the first operation if not for the summer too (however that might be a bit too much to expect given all the uncertainties!).
If Longwait is right, the Saudis will feel the pain very shortly. How delightful!
Maybe just reduced positions !
Did anyone see these trades go through ?
Do shorters reposition on a quarterly basis ? For fund performance reporting purposes ?
Were they planning to reduce / close before the CMD ?
Anyone share their wisdom as to how it all works
FCA seem to have reminded everyone lately about accurate short position declarations.
PBLJ left port 20 minutes ago. Don't have a precise destination yet, just a waypoint.
Apologies, just noticed that this was posted 2 days ago.
It was news to me.
https://twitter.com/BBCDouglasF
Offshore worker evacuated by Coastguard helicopter from Aoka Mizu production and storage vessel in Hurricane Energy’s Lancaster field, west of Shetland - then tested positive for #COVID19
Betty Knutsen departed AM and headed for Immingham, ETA 30/03 at 0900hrs.
No surprise refiners dont want crude if theres no demand for petrol/kerosene. Storage filling up.
Buyers will fade away, prices will fall, and wells will be shut in. Whose wells, and where, we will find out.
I guess KSA 's calculation is that they r the lowest cost producer, and the current glut may work to their advantage by telescoping the pricess into a few months.
A big game being played here, high stakes, and big implications for all higher cost producers.
Refineries in the United States and Europe are rejecting to accept any more Saudi oil, even at discounted prices, owing to a crude glut and lack of storage space, the Wall Street journal has reported, citing Saudi officials and oil traders.
Gulf Agency Company Ltd, a Dubai-based maritime logistics company, says buyers in India have also cut back on Saudi crude as that country has gone into lockdown to try to slow the spread of COVID-19. According to the company’s sources, at least 52 Indian ports have invoked a force majeure amid the outbreak, allowing them to cancel orders without incurring penalties.
Traders also told the WSJ that Russia – the oil exporter whose market share Saudi Arabia has been most keen to capture, has been able to compensate some of the decline in exports to Europe by redirecting them to China, a country where demand has been enjoying a slow recovery amid that country’s efforts to fight the pandemic.
Earlier this week, Bloomberg warned that declining oil revenues may lead to an “unthinkable balance-of-payments crisis” for Riyadh and end the country’s decades’ long policy of pegging its currency, the riyal, to the US dollar. The business news outlet warned that the country’s central bank reserves plus sovereign wealth fund minus government debt currently stand at just 0.1 percent of GDP, down from as much as 50 percent of GDP just six years ago, and predicted that the country would become a net debtor “for the foreseeable future, even if prices rise back above $80.”
Moody’s, meanwhile, says it expects prices to stabilize to $40-$55 a barrel for the year 2020, and grow to $50-$55 a barrel in 2021 pending a resumption in global economic growth.
https://sputniknews.com/business/202003271078728047-saudi-oil-industry-at-risk-as-american-european-refiners-refusing-riyadhs-crude--reports/
LONGWAIT
That is very relevant. Trump wants to keep PoO down to a 'reasonable' level, hence his pressure on the Saudis a year or so back but he knows he cant let the US Shale Industry die, that could well scupper any hope of re election. We could be fortunate (if you can call anything about this situation appalling situation fortunate) that this is all hitting the fan 9 months before he goes to the polls.
Only pay the staff 80% up to limit of £30,000. Not many staff either.
Well, DC, I've been shot down so many times here for alleged ramping, that I decided to add a touch of realism to my comments.
Frankly, if Trump allows the price to fall to $10 - and I am implying that he could prevent that from happening - then he deserves to lose the election in November, and MBS deserves the revolution he is asking for.
Shorters or others on leverage, will be very cautious at the moment, if they have any sense.
If there is a sudden or extreme lurch down and shorters are involved the Chancellor has said he will act to stop those profiteering, that could include various measures.
Mandating notifying positions at lower levels, banning, prosecuting misdemeanours, increasing penalties to the extreme of stopping share trading.
Stopping share trading is not what any of us want, but the survival of major companies will take precedence - follow the logic through, if trading is stopped the likelihood is that everyone will be locked in and the market will be restarted when things improve and shorters will potentially be put to the sword. Hence perhaps their reluctance to go in for a feeding frenzy - they won't get the usually fair warning to cover their backsides
All IMHO of course - I just think we are in a whole new territory where the usual feeding frenzy will not be tolerated. Time will tell.
Another thought is that the employer with the virus is a contractor's worker and they may agree orwe forced to shut down HUR's production - my point is that HUR may not be responsible for full or even the majority of costs - - as someone said previously HUR may be able to go on low production or hibernation with low ongoing costs. If forcibly closed the government would pay staff to 80%.
LW
"Of course, if Brent drops to $10, they could be back..."
ever the optimist!!
Total 0.0%
Of course, if Brent drops to $10, they could be back...
"Unless the Saudi’s rescind their threat to flood the market with crude oil, prices are doomed to drop another $5 to $10 per barrel. If they withdraw their threat then prices will surge similar amounts, but gains will be limited by extremely low demand."
Quoted from article on Fx Empire yesterday!
'This article says Trump could...'
Trump could have acted by now, but he doesn't want to upset his friend, MBS.
Trump last week said he would get involved in the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia at the appropriate time.
Maybe when oil prices are below zero, he would consider that the appropriate time had come, but I think any action then would be too late to save him from defeat in November.
There are any number of stories at the moment predicting PoO down to being negative! Lets hope the outcome, whatever it is, allows HUR to remain at least marginally profitable. With OGAs promised gentler regulatory touch I guess HUR can go into semi hibernation for a time with its assets intact and safely stored underground. Wonder what this situation will mean for Spirit in general and the GWA agreement in particular?
I hope so for our sake. You have two massive egos here who cannot lose face in front of their citizens. Like you I expect both parties want to resolve this, while hopefully (for them) still crippling the US. So somehow the climbdown, if there is one, must be achieved with pride intact. The only chink I can see is the 'relationship' between Trump and the KSA. If the latter could backdown 'for the sake of the world economy during this crisis after discussions (pressure from) with Trump' then maybe Putin could also have an excuse to relent. Putin will be happy if crude hangs around say $40 at which point the shale producers are still a squealin'
This article says Trump could impose a variable oil import tariff to set the price of oil in the US to say a minimum of $50 and this could then, in turn, have a knock on effect to the world oil price.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Cheapest-Way-For-Trump-To-Save-US-Oil.html
Some people on this site may be interested in the comments of adoubleuk , French way of life , casinos etc. , but I find it repetitive and boring . Read all comments , always hoping for information and some advice .
Not at all interested in personal ramblings from a Premium member .
Longwait - Ha ha , It certainly feels like that.
Have a good w/e.
Yes, indeed, Daltry.
I'm afraid that 103 years of reading LSE have taken their toll.
shipwatch update
NJORD VIKING on its way to Norway
BETTY KNUTSEN arrived AM 2020-03-28 06:35 LT UTC N60°10'58.84
W003°52'12.47 satellite position
FFS ATHOS & KOPERVIC tugs are lined up by Paul B Loyd Jr watch for any movement of rig
OLYMPIC ZEUS left Bergen overnight waiting near Olen