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@Rangers1 : Taxes aren't higher in Scotland.
Rather SNP didn't copy the Tory cut for rich which raised the 40% threshold from 43K to 50K.
Majority of people in Scotland (55%) actually pay less tax than rUK.
Those earning more than 43K (myself included) pay slightly more - but not much.
https://theferret.scot/scotland-highest-tax-uk-mostly-false/
Haggis Trap......well said I was just about to respond to Ranger1 (a good poster on here normally but suspect he is one of those who incredulously votes according to the football team he supports) He hasn't considered that most pay lower tax then counterparts in rUK Maybe he would rather be in rUK and pay for prescriptions. personal care. tuition fees and higher council tax. I may pay a little more tax than those doon sooth but I am happy to do so and would be happy to do so again in an independent Scotland if it meant a more equitable and fair society.
I predict we will win 44 seats tomorrow......not up at 2015 levels (56/59) but still a fantastic return. No idea what might happen in England but astonished that that charlatan Johnson still remains popular...maybe the Tories plan of keeping him off the TV and avoiding the public will pay off.
1. The TLF site is down for a while due to some server changes. The changes only took an hour or so. The DNS propogation can take up to 72 hours depending on a lot of things, but for most people less than 24 hours. Personally I can see the 'old' TLF site but not yet the 'new' TLF site. YMMV.
2. If you have a problem with the data I have used then please contact HUR and the OGA as they are responsible for data quality matters.
3. If you think the only information that comes out is via RNS then I suggest you wise up.
4. If you have a problem with the four hypotheses I posted (of which the last is "something I cannot think of") then please post carefully and thoughtfully here, or better still on TLF. When doing so don't worry about minor issues, concentrate on the big stuff. So far no-one has figured out an alternative hypothesis.
5. If you have a problem with the shareprice then I am the wrong person to discuss it with. I am not a trader and the real fundamentals here are the ones that HUR and the OGA see. I am very long, and it has been a good while since any shares moved in my account.
6. But that doesn't mean I don't pay attention to information.
7. That information (rumour) about ESP VSD commissioning is also relevant. One brings ESPs on line to increase drawdown. Why does one seek to increase drawdown ?
8. That is a really good lyell paper, posted today, worth reading. But it doesn't actually say anything that hasn't already been chewed over (with fewer words) already on the relevant BB's.
9. There are many issues with HUR that lead to low shareprices. The big ones are technical (primarily reservoir) risk; project risk; funding risk; and shareholder risk. A few (%) of PIs panicking and running for the exit (or being stopped out) are very low on the scale of that very last item.
10. There will be a reason HUR feel the need to come to the market with an RNS (or similar) re EPS during December, which is in advance of their previous Q1 2020 intent. Quite what it is I do not know, but I watch with interest and I hope it fills in the information gaps that ought by now to be fillable.
11. Do not come to me for a comfort blanket. This is a high risk share.
regards, dspp
Don't worry, Dspp: you're the last person I would ask for a comfort blanket.
After wading through your 11 points, I wonder why you posted them here.
Points 2, 4 and 5 all begin, 'If you have a problem with...'
I suggest you go back to Lemon Fool.
dspp re point 10 which part of uninterrupted vessel uptime combined with good productivity leads you to a negative rather than positive reason for a Dec RNS?
HT - You are quite correct that the SNP did not increase the basic rate threshold in line with Westminster but personally I wouldn't say someone on £50k as "rich" , but better off than possibly most. Your "slightly more" based on £50k income would therefore be £7k @ 20% (40%-20%) or £1,400 for the current tax year. Slightly more right enough and that doesn't include the extra 1% on the basic rate so let's call it roughly £1,500 and obviously even more for those above £50k per year who are caught by the extra 1% on the higher rate. Then multiply by 3 for last three year inclusive. If you read my post where I say "least of MY worries" I meant exactly that, I am concerned with my own finances only and hence not a socialist. Look after number one. Selfish maybe, but that's for me to deliberate.
Jay,
Look for thread: ESP Switch on by Jack Swann, today basically states.......
'Afternoon all. I’m new to this site so bare with me ;) Been trading a few years but relatively new compared to many of you.
'I have been told for certain the VSD commissioning engineers will be in board for ESP switch on early Jan. With that in mind I’m surprised the amount of negativity for HUR..'
dspp,
I would firstly, as a rider, wish to assure you that I am not casting direct apersions on your character or motives by my posts here. Nevertheless I look at everything I read on any BB with a 'hairy eyeball' in times of doubt or volatility. Hope you'll forgive me that.
You list a number of points to which I'd like to reply.
"2. If you have a problem with the data I have used then please contact HUR and the OGA as they are responsible for data quality matters."
I don't doubt the data. However I doubt your interpretation of it in your post on TLF as being a 'caution point', for reasons I already explained here. In fact your own scattergraph underlined this. You cannot take just one datapoint (out of five) above a 'curve' and interpret it as a 'sign'. Especially when the data is two months old.
"4. If you have a problem with the four hypotheses I posted (of which the last is "something I cannot think of") then please do so... So far no-one has figured out an alternative hypothesis."
My own hypothesis, for lack of any contrary evidence, is that everything's going fine out on the EPS. Does that bother you?
"5. If you have a problem with the shareprice then I am the wrong person to discuss it with. "
You're not bothered about the current SP and behaviour?
"7. That information (rumour) about ESP VSD commissioning is also relevant. One brings ESPs on line to increase drawdown. Why does one seek to increase drawdown ?"
To increase production, usually. The f***in' stuff's got to be commissioned sometime...
"8. That is a really good lyell paper, posted today, worth reading. But it doesn't actually say anything that hasn't already been chewed over (with fewer words) already on the relevant BB's."
Link, please? I'd prefer to read a Lyell paper than 95% of anything posted on these BB's. Other than the weekend O/T stuff, of course.
"9. There are many issues with HUR that lead to low shareprices. The big ones are technical (primarily reservoir) risk; project risk; funding risk; and shareholder risk. A few (%) of PIs panicking and running for the exit (or being stopped out) are very low on the scale of that very last item."
There you go again...
"10. There will be a reason HUR feel the need to come to the market with an RNS (or similar) re EPS during December, which is in advance of their previous Q1 2020 intent. Quite what it is I do not know, but I watch with interest and I hope it fills in the information gaps that ought by now to be fillable."
Me to regarding that hope. Dr T has said, seemingly, during his RGS talk, that EPS is 'ahead of schedule'. To my mind this is why an update soon instead of waiting 'til the CMD.
"11. Do not come to me for a comfort blanket."
Don't worry, I won't. And I hope nobody asks me for one, either. And they're not getting my sleeping bag!
Reference point 7, and please bear with me as I haven’t seen the original post/document being referred to, but I just cannot fathom out the reference to the ESP VSD’s.
As far as I am aware the ESP’s have not been utilised during production of these wells, at least to date, so why would there be any relevance to the variable speed drives, as they cannot modulate something that isn’t currently in operation.
Surely that’s like using a dimmer switch on a light, when there isn’t a bulb fitted, as that would be futile.
IMHO
I knew I would start the jungle drums. My preference in football team has no bearing on my political thoughts as I knew nothing about politics aged 5. Pretty derogatory response. I knew the education, prescription points etc. would raise it's head but in true SNP style, they were brought into a discussion on my thoughts on a different subject being the taxes I pay which I don't agree with. I don't go to University and would happily pay for any prescriptions. I have the benefit of medical insurance and have in the past been offered NHS treatment and explained to the Specialist that as I this cover would not burden the NHS with cost of treatment.
AK,
Point 8: Today Malrees< Thread Title Water
'There is a great deal of nonsense being written on this board, mainly by people who have no worthwhile knowledge of Lancaster. I assume they have some ulterior motive.
However, I suspect that one of the main issues is that even if they wish to understand more, they are incapable of doing so. I am not a geologist, but having spent two hours assimilating what is in RT's latest Lyell paper, which was posted on 29th November, I am totally relaxed about my investment here.
For those with the knowledge and/or inclination to understand more the link is:'
HTTP://jgs.lyellcollection.org/content/jgs/early/2019/11/29/jgs2019-142.full.pdf
dspp
2) i don't have a problem with your data. My only issue is that the water figure you have used and gone on about repeatedly was released by hur already and they said it was better than they expected. They have also gone to great lengths to explain that it is not affecting production. which is backed up with the offloads we have had. According to hur there is no problem so why are you going on about it?
4) your hypotheses are just that
5) you are long...have you bought any in the drop?..no don't answer that as we have no way of knowing.
9) disagree. it has been a perfect storm. people sell up at xmas for a variety of reasons. we have a general election which is also causing fear. Market was already spooked with ECO and I3E. i suspect as usual on AIM people sold on "news" especially sold on bad drill result. There were a couple of notifiable shorts opened immediately prior to RNS. negative rumours also spooked some - some have admitted on here. water % being one
so i think a lot of PIs have sold = price drop
10) there are several possibilities why HUR are releasing news in december
a) good news from testing - it has been 6 months which was a timeframe they already talked about
b) they want to improve communication
c) they were worried that bad drill result will affect price so wanted some good news in there as well.
etc
Stand fast, as I was writing that post someone posted that the rumour is that the variable speed drives are rumoured to be commissioned in January.
Were that rumour to be proven to be accurate then I would agree with adoubleuk’s response ...... they have to be commissioned at some time.
The launching system on nuclear submarines require initial commissioning, but that doesn’t then indicate that there is to be an imminent nuclear weapon launch.
IMHO
Here is a comment on HUR, posted on LSE UKOG just over an hour ago:
'$60 million loss, SP below 30p and sinkingblike a proverbial ship, huge lift costs of operating offshore, and a loan that makes ones eyes water, but not as much water as in their production wells. Ouch. You're right, HUR will never make a net profit. Loan impairment costs and bad results = good night nurse. Expect a buy out for peanuts in less than 12 months. Ouch. Sub 20p v soon, equating to a 66% reduction in SP in less than 6 months. Good stock picking.'
That's the kind of garbage you see on LSE.
dspp
Your point 3 "If you think the only information that comes out is via RNS then I suggest you wise up." troubles me.
I have no doubt that information will leak out and there is I am sure an industry grapevine, but non industry private investors will not have access to this information other that what might filter through on these boards. e,g today we have Jackswan in his first post and having only joined today informing us of ESP switch on. Can this be treated as reliable information?
You have said yourself do no believe anything on these boards.
Yes I am wise to the fact that information will come out other than via an RNS but exactly where other than a company RNS can the average PI expect to get information that can be relied upon?
Haven’t seen him post anything remotely positive recently yet he states he’s “.......very long,”
BuyinMay,
Exactly, I made and posted the same sentiment, in that it 'DID NOT ADD UP'
HH,
I usually respect your posts, but think you've gone a bit off-tangent with your latest. Though yes, it's late at night.
"Surely that’s like using a dimmer switch on a light, when there isn’t a bulb fitted, as that would be futile."
I'd draw a different analogy.
The ESP's were no doubt used during recompletion by the PBLJ last year, just to test them.
But (to our knowledge), have not yet been turned on during EPS. So if it's a question of 'commissioning' the controls, it has to be done sometime. (See an earlier post of mine.) The timing of when it's done is neither here nor there.
Yes, Dspp's post 'point 7' does instill some doubts, once more. I'm not saying he does it deliberately, maybe he's just ultra-cautious.
But here's a hypothesis as to why they want to get the ESP's running. based on no evidence at all. But not implausible at all, I think.
We've been informed that tests have been done or are in progress, producing each well separately. We have no details whatsoever as to the results of these tests. Nevertheless, I think it can be safely assumed that during single-well 'natural' production, actual volumes produced are less than with both wells online together.
Now in the future with the EPS (talking years), there's no guarantee that problems might not occur with one or other of the wells. NOT necessarily reservoir-related. There's a lot of 'machinery' (for want of a better word) down those wells, and no guarantee that some 'breakdown' might not occur. So you want to be sure that you can continue production using just one well. should such a mishap occurs. So you want to bring an ESP online to do so.
It'll be even better once Lincoln is tied in: 'redundancy' with just two wells is OK, but only OK. Three-well redundancy es a lot better.
Or maybe (hypothesis 2), the recent 'tests' have indicated that they might want to 'bounce' production from one well to another, but I can't really dream up a reason why.
Except (hypothesis 3, following up from number 2). It could have something to do with something as mundane as pigging schedules. Shut in one well for flowline pigging, ramp up the other, meantime, just to maintain optimum output.
Why raise questions which raise doubts, when the company has already said that they'd inform if the EPS was misbehaving, and they haven't done that?
Part of Tullow's recent RNS refered to their new downsized production projections were due to unforeseen higher water-cut on one of their ('conventional') fields. It happens, and in 'conventional', once 'coning has started, it's hard to stop. In FB it's different, but anyway, the company has said our water is not from the aquifer.
People have lost money on TLW, quite possibly people also invested here. So now, mention water-cut and such people get scared. And other unscrupulous characters can easily stoke that fear, for their own personal gain.
adoubleuk
Commissioning has yet to be completed prior to final acceptance. I assume that will include use of the ESP's
DC,
"Commissioning has yet to be completed prior to final acceptance. I assume that will include use of the ESP's"
Yes, of course there's that, as well.
DC/AD,
How come one might ask, are we only just getting round to the commissioning the ESP's 6 months later, is that par for the course?
Jiffy,
Thanks for reposting 'Lyell link'. Guess it was something I missed. I'll wait 'til I've been to bed (perchance to sleep & dream) and woken up again before I read it, though!
JiffyBag,
"How come one might ask, are we only just getting round to the commissioning the ESP's 6 months later, is that par for the course?"
The ESP's themselves were no doubt 'commissioned' (ie function-tested) during recompletion with the PBLJ. But given the good natural flowrates through the FPSO after FoiL, doing so again was maybe back-heeled. It's not all 'plug and play', and if there's still work going on before the FPSO is 100%, as DiveCentre suggests, ther's no doubt a planned order in which things are done.
Heck, we still don't even know if power is being provided by the turbines from produced gas, or whether she's still burning fuel-oil. Lots of things we don't know.
Jay Kay
My BinL collapsed the other week it was only due to my sister who kept him alive as it took the NHS ambulance over 30 mins to reach the door
On arrival one of the medics was a sullen as anything and it was only my sisters perseverance that got him to hospital.
Maybe if we stopped offering everything from aspro for free it might actually get a bit better.