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Thanks for that analysis, combined with the news that there was no further bad news in the result gave HRG exactly the push we have been waiting. excellent day!
Very nice breakout forming - has shot through the 200DAMAVG as well as 50day with 50 day now crossing the 200 - looks like a clear breakout with sustained momentum. Historically this has seen a 50% rise in SP
Nearly on the spot as expected. Profits slightly down but after the profit warning early in the year we knew that and the second half proved to solve the problems form the beginning of the year and performed much better which promises well. The problems with Canada are solved and should be profitable next year and now secure for 6 years. Net Debt continues to be reduced and payment for pension scheme agreed for 10 years although total pot still high. Cost savings through reduction in staff going to contribute 8 million extra next year and outlook overall looks rosy with growth in the new Fraedom brand and the spendvision product. Finally dividend continues to grow 5% a year despite the drop in profits. That exudes confidence. From every thing said I would be surprised if we don't see a substantial increase this year to around 40 million from 31 million. If the share price follows the same pattern we should be at 65 but I believe we have been far too low this year due to the market awaiting solutions to the early problems which are now in the past. Also if we look at some of the valuation s of similar businesses sold in recent times a multiple of between 4 and 5 of ebitda is far too low. We have seen close to 10 but even if it was 7-8 we should now be 70-80 and in a year around 90-100 and that is what I will be hoping for
Great to see the price in more sensible territory. Tomorrow is important as we want the profit warning to be out of the world. Not expecting any surprises on results, hopefully dividend continues at least at the same level or a little improvement, but important that the verbage on present trading is promising. The problems in Canada have hopefully settled down and they hopefully have adjusted the staffing in the regions where they have a lot of oil business which has dropped due to the oil price. They have won new contracts which they will only benefit fully from next year. They must reduce their staffing even further and hopefully we can start to hear good news from their new brand, Freadom. If things go well we should move swiftly higher from here. At least we are seeing strong buying at this level and I doubt this is in order to sell tomorrow. Maybe somebody has heard good news leaking?
You got your wish. Almost 10% up in a month. Let's hope we get a further boost with some decent results tomorrow.
was hoping to see this rise as we get closer to the results it would be a nice confidence boost.
Someone building up a stake here?
Yes I do know that, just not often we see them on this share. let us get some excitement and preferably as you say some buys!
Thanks Buller - you probably already know this but as I understand it these automated small buys (or sells) are the market makers buying shares in small bites in order to conceal a large purchase (or sell). So long as they are buys it seems to me that it is a good sign.
Lots of buys but they are all minute, don't really understand the games played here but time we move back up to 50 to be ready for results and the next move up. Welcome back CTW
....at a slightly better price than the price I was stopped out on. Fingers crossed.
shouldn't make any difference. The company is run by David Radcliffe whoever sits in the Chairman's seat
Don't ever resist the urge to give some ideas and tips. That is why we ( at least me) are here. Promise will never blame, but will do my own research and hopefully find something I like. I also have to check is they are all applicable for ISA, but of course still might invest. I have luckily had a lot of profits over the last few years, especially in HRG and tried to move them around to ISAs and family to get rid of the CGT, Utilising the lower level just now to do the rest. Oil companies with cash are in just now, I believe, as they might be able to snatch up some bargains from those who cant survive the low prices but otherwise have solid businesses. I have gone back in to Sefton, probably the worse company and worse run company over the last 5 years. Now with a new investment group with some real money behind it, new management and having got rid of loss making assets and debt could be the next big thing if they buy sensibly. At this time no production but the price is so low that I find it difficult if it survives which it clearly looks like now that it will not go much higher. It has doubled already but still only fraction of a penny. I am in at o.08, now around 0.14 but if you are willing to wait can see it much higher. Again DYOR. Thanks for the tips. As we don't have that much happening on HRG, might be a good forum to exchange a bit of info on others but we are moving steadily back up towards the 50. Year ending next week although results are a couple of months away.
Buller - couldn't resist responding to your comment about not seeing others that will do better. DYOR, of course, but, look at: 1) Kirkland Lake Gold. I have already sold some shares here at a decent profit. Got back in and my holding is up nearly 50% in a few weeks. Great new management turning this company around like a dose of salts. Quite a bit of gain already there but more to go IMO even if gold price remains flat. 2) Wolf Minerals. First new mine development in the UK for decades (tungsten and tin). Fully funded and supported by local community. Mine and processing plant at an advanced stage. Sure fire bet IMHO. 3) Fox Marble. More speculative. Long delay on finishing factory but great portfolio of marble quarries. Just need more sales and to finish factory to process block marble into polished and we are away. 4) Atlantis Resources. Speculative and long term, but a no brainier green technology with Government support. Permissions and funding in place for a massive tidal energy project which has just started. 5) Independent Oil and Gas. Speculative and long term but share price is way below asset value. Board has done it all before and may well again. 6) Tomco. Highly speculative and long term. Could run out of cash. Fall in oil price will delay, but great potential if they get there. Holding paper losses on all but Kirkland and Wolf, but all could do really well IMO. Fox, IOG, Atlantis and Tomco are the riskiest, but perhaps offer the most untapped potential. Wolf and Kirkland are pretty much in the bag but have already delivered some of their potential, but far from all of it, IMO. Just thought I would share. Needless to say, I hope you pile in with squillions to boost the prices, but if you do, and they go tits up, don't blame me; they are just ones I fancy. DYOR and you may agree. All the best.
thanks for that research. I honestly don't believe the results will be disappointing. Expectations take the profit warning into account and HRG are known to be conservative in their messaging , if they thought it would be worse they would have said so, so I actually think results will be OK, maybe slightly better than last year and dividends will be at least the same , maybe a nudge up. Maybe the market didn't like the splitting up the company in 2 business units but I dodnt see why, looks a shrewd move to me. Canada seems to have calmed down and all in all I expect us to get back to a much higher level in the next year, we have started the fightback now. I have just moved all my shares to my ISA (those who were not already) , cant really see any others that I believe will give me that sort of return that I expect from HRG over the next few years.
Stopped out on a dip this morning. Think I will watch and wait rather than jump back in, to see how this does.
Ps: the12th and the two trading days following saw relatively high volumes of trading in the shares.
I think that I may, albeit belatedly, have got to the bottom of why the price dropped. On 12th March the Investors Chronicle published an article headed 'Hogg Robinson's Wings are clipped'. I can't access the full article without subscribing but it appears to have been negative and may have included a sell recommendation. It looks like the article was based on the February interim management statement (which itself the market seemed to take in its stride) and comments from Peel Hunt who apparently think it will be 2017 before profits recover, which the article speculates may be optimistic. The article, or at least the part I can read, appears to be somewhat more negative than my reading of the management statement itself and the impact seems, at least in part, to have blown over. At the end of the day, the latest (and recent) news from the company is that they expect full year performance to be in line with market expectations.
what ever the reason the lower price certainly attracted some serious buying. Considering how few shares there are in general circulation there were some hefty purchases yesterday. Is somebody accumulating, if so whom? Strange that the price didn't move up, some days very little volume causes great movement and others the opposite, need to get back to 50 very quickly so we can move up from there with the results and the dividend which I expect to be at least held and maybe even slightly up.
In the absence of any news, it's just my guess but I would imagine this is just the market makers moving the share price to generate sales by triggering stop losses etc. Having shaken the tree, hopefully, they will move it back up again.
anyone here knows any reason for the drop in price the last week?
Interesting comments and I think you describe it pretty well. I do think they want to deliver services to each other and possible charge for these internally , a charge that my or may not be passed on to clients. They also want to sell their technology and abilities in oterh areas to other companies and found it difficult to do so while they were under the HRG hat, hence the new branding and the new organisation headed up by their old CIO, Brindle. This gives space for more new blood in the HRG board which I think is a good thing. Whether they can compete with companies like Concur who dominate the online and expense management scene remains to be seen, but no doubt that is where the money is. So not too much to lose and quite a bit potential upside.
Having stopped by here earlier, I thought I'd take a closer look at HR creating its two divisions. HR has a fairly significant travel technology capability [which was previously housed within the travel division]. They also have the SaaS capability for expense and transaction management [which was the Spendvision bit] HR has put these two together under the new fraedom brand and created an integrated technology and Software as a Service division...This means they can still continue to offer everything they do for existing customers (and no doubt will provide some services to each other) but the main focus is not to sell to each other but to create growth by opening up new markets and new clients for full blown end-to-end SaaS solutions...For shareholders that gets really quite interesting doesnt it!
A good guy leaving but i do think some new thinking is due in the company. The industry has changed a lot and there are good business people in many positions in hrg but it needs a but of generation shift to get the new and younger voices heard. It is hapoening but needs to move faster. The big announcement last week was the splitting of the company in 2 divisions, one if them selling services to the other. Might be a very shrewd move or simply a gimmick. No reaction on SP after that announcement at all so assume jury is out for the time being
Jerry, I have a feeling they only need to issue an RNS if a Director is leaving. Looks like this guy was fairly senior but definitely not on the main board so no need to issue a statement? Interestingly, I was talking with someone the other day who reckoned HR has a really strong senior team. Tend not to rely so much on individuals and will probably just take a change like this in its stride...