Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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WOW! Chumpsky, what a load of twaddle, you treat your time like a baby treats a nappy, must have little else to do than trolling good folks like me.
Never mind, silver is shooting up & HOC shorters are in for a royal butt rogering tomorrow.
TTFN
For quite a few years, I listened to GoldSeek Radio. In one of the weekly programmes, the host told us of how easy it was to make money out of natural gas. He said that natural gas was reliably cyclical - cheap in the summer then expensive in winter, so, every year, he used to buy in summer and sell in winter. Making money out of it was so easy. Presumably a no-brainer.
Then one year - shale gas came on line and the price plunged, even in winter.
Always expect the unexpected.
So, there we have another example that shows why only an idiot would say that an investment is a no-brainer - and don't forget that the Titanic was unsinkable.
Due to the limit on the number of characters - the end got cut off. Here it is -
... Then the dot com boom really got going. If I had spent £1,500 at the time when I rang up, those shares ended up being worth over £800,000 - that is eight hundred thousand quid. That company, a British company, made a huge leap forward in technology leaving its rivals in the shade, and it came out with a product that everybody wanted.
That's is how crazy it was. Another one was a new company that floated close to the height of the mania. It was a cash shell with no assets, just a director who was famous for making money for his investors and a claim that he was going to cash in on the dotcom boom.
It floated and in two weeks the share price multiplied by a hundred. A thousand quids worth at the start was worth a hundred grand two weeks later.
Will the gold and silver bull be like that? I might try to catch dips with a portion of my PM holdings, but I would never dare to sell all of my PM stocks and be left behind if the rocket takes off.
That idiot just made money from acting on Moriarty's article.
Admittedly I had expected to make more than I did, and I had to quickly buy back in as the price looked to be going back up.
The silver price had moved up in sharp spike. The law of gravity comes into effect when a price makes a spike. Only an idiot would ignore it. Money can be made by selling the spike, catching the dip and buying back in.
But with prices (stock, commodities or currencies) nothing is certain and there is no such thing as a no-brainer. On Sunday I posted link to a peice by Michael Oliver who told us - "quite often in the middle of a trend they will find too many bulls and yet the price will still drive north (head higher). This was the case during the Dotcom move where investors were bullish as heck in 1999 and yet the stocks went up for another year, vertically".
So although gravity should, and under normal circumstances would, bring about a correction, a rare event can negate that effect. A mania such as the dotcom boom is very rare.
I took notice of Oliver's words (and the views other people), weighed them against Moriarty's and made up my mind - I expected the correction to be greater, but there was too great a chance of the HOC price going back up so I got back in, which I signalled on here and in advance, so no bull from me.
I stayed nimble and as the situation changed, my strategy changed.
Note that I posted links to articles on both sides of the fence, for example my post Sun 19:20 - Micheal Oliver. I am prepared to accept other people's views and prepared to change my opinion as new information comes along. My willingness to accept varied opinions leads me to a balanced point of view, which leads to rational decision making.
You will find that in this game nothing is certain (take ACA for example - a well managed company with low cost of production, ever expanding reserves - it should have been a no-brainer, but look at what happened to it) and being contemptuous of other points of view and having a ****-sure attitude will be harmful rather than beneficial to you.
It was my openness to other opinions, rather than a rigid, smug and conceited attitude, that helped me to make a bit of money.
No one needs to tell me what a good investment HOC is for the medium to longer term. As you have seen, I have been in since at least 2008 and possibly earlier, but look at the price swings. There is money to be made from trading - but see my post yesterday - " We never know for certain how share prices are going to move, which is why I sold only some and not all."
Just a couple of anecdotes about the dotcom boom. I phoned my broker (this was before internet dealing) and asked for a quote on a stock I fancied. I was going to buy £1,500 worth. He told me 51p to buy. I wanted it for under 50p, so I didn't buy. A week later it was over 90p. Two weeks after that it was over 180p. Then the dot com boom really got going. If I had
Very positive, makes it a no-brainer for anybody to park cash for short/medium term.
Where is that idiot that was pushing Bob Moriarty's "Silver is Getting a Bit Frothy" back in May or June on this board.
Worth a read
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4363787-hochschild-mining-gives-diversity-across-gold-and-silver