Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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thanks for the technicals update Test_test. i'm seeing some big buys today and some big sells too. always some sells on the first real rise though.
I really got a feeling that this is a bottom. 4hr rsi has just turned the corner..
Just getting extra cautious as trying to avoid the false indicator.
Thanks you guys.. Spoke too soon.. already under 16p now.. will be watching from the sideline for now...
yep, finances are hardly "sorted"
it may have a little liquidity, but solvancy remains the question: what value retail assets?
"What are your thoughts chaps?"
I think this is yet another of my holdings that is going to go bust, I did subscribe to the rights issue, but now feel that with the Covid situation with us for perhaps years to come it seems, I will be proved wrong and have wasted money.
You asked, it's all doom and gloom here, sorry.
I think 14p - 16p is the bottom of this share.. Really thinking to get in but bit nervous as it may go down under 15p again before it start the recovery.
Now finance is sorted so it can withstand the further lock down.
What are your thoughts chaps?
Can we just be clear - 60% impairment is just daft. All this conjecture will be answered when we get some positive news about the virus which despite some people's belief will not continue to cause the current state of panic and angst. Taking a short term hit on rent is understandable, will prime commercial real estate recover - IMO yes.
Jolly good
Portfolio valuation as of end of June sits at £7Bn
60% disc £2.8bn
Less £2.2bn debt net if cash so equity at £600M or 15.66p equivalent
So the current equity is sitting at your so called 60% discount from 30Jun valuation levels...
You recon APG and Lighthouse who hold over 40% equity in HMSO have just burned over £220Million participating in the rights issue??? And already sitting on £100's of millions of losses...
So according to you they've got it horribly wrong???
And today's buyers got it wrong???
Yuri - suggest you read this if you have not already
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/hammerson-rights-issue-via-disposal-relieve-pressure-on-ratings-06-08-2020
Unencumbered asset ratio covenants have already been relaxed by lenders-at the the end of December, this ratio stood at 189% and now post rights and disposal it will be above 200%- the covenant has been relaxed to 125% for reporting periods until the end of June 2021, and to 140% for a new test date of the end of October 2021
On Sep-1st mcap was 345m (45p x 766m shares, later 1/5 consolidated into 153m shares), they've raised 550m?
(via RI of 3.5b new shares x15p + 190m remaining shares to be paid by monday via underwriters)
and now mcap is 600m, meaning initial 345m mcap went all the way down to 50m (or -85%, although partially {small bit} this hit might be shared with those who participated in RI/equity raise, like with new car - discounted on purchase)
I mean yes, sure, you can hope for 7x multibag on loss-making company
- but it would mean you've just got your money back (without any interest {PV/discounting}).
hmso was not profitable even before covid (last 2 years at least), now their business model in a little bit of trouble with all these upcoming waves of asset devaluations (property) and losses (rent collections - running costs {incl. interest})
I think real (net, junk-cleaned/revaluated based on net revenue-generative capacity) equity is below 2b (1.5b?) plus newly raised bit (to support continuity over the short-term), despite listed gross equity of 3.3b by last report, then further erosion/drain is expected via PnL over next couple of quarters.
Probably one of a good chances for recovery they have - might be via opportunistic acquisitions due to current market stress (because some companies trying to monetize assets at significant discounts, e.g. disposals to support liquidity, administration {intu, etc.}), nonetheless still is a risky move..
alex darling
you need to brush up your basic math
hmso ltv is c40%, so 60% discount on pf = wipeout
#simplez
When you reflect back with a pipe and slippers you will recount the tale of buying these for 14.4p to the grandchildren..what a buy:)
With WMH I don't think TO speculated party will pay such a high premium, possible offer might be justifiable maximum at 130p, I wouldn't take seriously lasts results with profit either because it was simply one-off VAT refund (165m) which's unexpectedly pulled them out of losses.
It is also a bit of a wrong approach selectively taking minimum from collapsing market history like this because so many companies are in fact multibaggers is we check closely, not something you reliably can predict - as someone mentioned below with "timing the market" joke.
For HMSO to do the same - well, only if tomorrow covid suddenly disappears, gov grants 50K to everyone for free and all retail rushes to reserve trading spaces, or perhaps someone discovers high-grade gold deposits under their territories.. Not happening.
someone saw value in William Hill (WMH). 10 bagger since around March. maybe HMSO can do same? never say never..
Why would anyone repossess at the moment with all on Intu on the market haha - some people just don't get it. There is just dire sentiment and a smouldering wreck here after the shorts had a field day - it won't be an instant recovery - but there will be one.
Hola jolly
Good points... kinda
Currently HMSO is trading at £600M Mcap
NAV is £4Bn at zero disc
So currently it is valued at 85% discount to NAV
Is this enough discount for you???
Strike sales at 60% discount as you imply would still value equity at 31.7p
Double the current sp
Sniffing the bargain yet???
with Land.l going lower
perhaps worth considering
the implied discount on Land's
retail pf valuation
not obvious that even a 50-60% discount for HMSO's pf valuation is enough?
if that's so, what value (other than option) is in HMSO?
#postcardanswer
never rely on anyone's post!
dyor, all
It was time to buy as soon as it dropped below TERP of 25p. Granted we have a slightly worse covid outlook now so perhaps 10% off from there is market value..expect it should rest at about 22p but then again, who saw the price going sub 15p.
Anyone that sold sub 15p has literally just thrown away money - I think the rump could have been taken by a hedge fund that sold it down to 15p. There is a chance that overhang sit about for a few weeks - but there are near term catalysts to the price despite the incredibly negative view at the moment. Vaccine, rapid tests and US stimulus plus a Brexit deal would all be positive drivers. This now has liquidity to sit it out so personally I think its a good place to invest at current level. The fact the shorts are closing tells you they don't expect it to go much lower - keep an eye on their position.
seems to be crawling out of its hole. presume shorters will close now.
answers on a postcard.