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Another RNS, this time showing that Oryx have bought another 3m+ shares since their last holdings RNS and now have 4.26m, or 9.55%: Http://www.investegate.co.uk/hml-holdings-plc--hmlh-/rns/holding-s--in-company/201612220859505972S/ Looks like Oryx and the Business Growth Fund took almost the entire 5.5m placing shares between them short of 1m shares or so.
The Business Growth Fund have increased to above 8% with 3.79m shares. They've bought over 1.5m more shares, presumably in the placing. A good show of confidence in what is still only a £15m or so m/cap company: Http://www.investegate.co.uk/hml-holdings-plc/rns/holding-s--in-company/201612210854474635S/
Finncap today are rightly leaving their forecasts at 3.8p EPS and 4p EPS for this and next year for the moment, but we should hopefully see a decent uplift to that 4p EPS to March'18 on completion.
Rather exciting news with a potential £4.4m of acquisitions :o)) And a part-placing at the 37p mid-price too, so a very good price achieved. Hopefully the three acquisitions will proceed smoothly. They'll be earnings-enhancing per the RNS, and will be a decent step up in size for HMLH. Nicely done.
Encouraging to see the Business Growth Fund buying from LTC over 5%, or 2.2m shares, in one block: Http://www.investegate.co.uk/hml-holdings-plc--hmlh-/rns/holding-s--in-company/201611251153531945Q/
Moved up another 1p on just 10k of buys.....new recent high now. At 37p it's still on a single-figure P/E given 3.8p EPS forecasts for this year and 4p next year.
You can only buy a maximum 1,500 shares at 36.98p, but you can sell 15,000 at a nice premium at 35.56p.
Great to see Oryx becoming an new major shareholder with 1.192m shares and over 3% - hopefully they'll continue buying more! Http://www.investegate.co.uk/hml-holdings-plc--hmlh-/rns/holding-s--in-company/201611181528596140P/
...and up another 1p on just £2k of buys today! Seemingly stock is rather scarce....
Good to see a tick up after just a 5k buy. Hopefully we'll get some reports back from the investors' meeting today.
Here's Finncap's key investment considerations FYI: "Investment considerations ´Our EPS estimate for 2016/17 of 3.8p adjusts for amortisation of acquired intangible assets and SBP. At 32p, the group's diluted equity is valued at £12.7m on an adjusted forward P/E of 8.4x for forecast EBITDA of £2.1m after central costs. ´Tight cost control saw staff costs rise 11% in the period against revenue growth of 13%. Premises cost increases at over 20% incorporate acquisition activity but also reflects the rising impact of London weighted rent and rate reviews. ´Last year, group property management operating profit margins were 6%, compensated for by a much stronger contribution from insurance activity, and that structure remains intact. Underlying group operating profit margins therefore equate to 14.5% before corporate overheads. ´Free cash generation of c.£1.5m+ pa supports acquisitive growth but expansion also generates funds to support investment into the business. While free cash flow could support a higher dividend, the market opportunity justifies increasing group scale to drive longer-term EPS growth. ´Net debt of £1.4m may increase given bank support of up to 2x EBITDA to facilitate growth. The group has access to a £1.5m overdraft facility aside from a term loan as part of this arrangement. However, in the absence of acquisitions, cash balances would grow quickly. ´Acquisition formula: HML is paying just over one times revenue for acquisitions (on average less than £300/unit) with an element of consideration deferred for a year (the group paid £0.3m def. con. in 2015/16). Target price: At our 45p TP, the EV/EBITDA multiple is 9.2x and the adj. P/E is 11.8x based on 2016/17 adjusted earnings estimates. Without acquisitions and therefore allowing for some debt reduction, the EV/EBITDA multiple would become 7.8x at our TP, based on 2017/18 EBITDA of £2.3m." "Forecasts and conclusion We have allowed for revenue growth into 2017/18 based on the expectation of organic growth rather than fee increases. The assumption also remains that acquisition-driven growth will continue, although the timing and benefit is difficult to predict. EPS growth is anticipated. The dividend policy is progressive, but overall we expect the yield to remain modest during the group's expansion. While revenue multiples have declined over the past decade, the value the group is building in its insurance book should not be overlooked, and as the residential property management sector improves its operating quality threshold under better regulation, the value of the group's market share will become more apparent. Forecast EBITDA for FY 2018 of £2.3m is presently valued at £12.5m in the market for a 6x EV/EBITDA multiple and 0.68x revenue."
They now go for 3.8p EPS for this year ending in 4 months (with a 0.37p dividend), and 4p EPS for next year (plus a 0.4p dividend), HMLH is looking pretty cheap imo. They also have a 45p target price, which would represent over 30% upside from here.
Surprisingly good interims at first look this morning. 2.1p adjusted EPS in H1 means they're likely to smash forecasts of 3.3p EPS. Nice long-term work in Canary Wharf revealed too. Plus improvements in volumes, acquisitions integrating well....time for a re-rating perhaps: Http://www.investegate.co.uk/hml-holdings-plc--hmlh-/rns/half-year-report/201611160700062578P/
Today's AGM statement is short, sharp and very encouraging: "The business continues to perform well with a positive start to this year. Management remain confident that trading remains in line with expectations." Being in line with 3.4p EPS (and a 0.4p dividend) makes this good value at 33p imo.
Results out - looks to me like the adjusted EPS is nicely ahead of expectations (though as usual HMLH have left us to work it out for ourselves). HMLH made 3.76p adjusted EPS if you add back the £390k amortisation and £22k share-based expenses. This compares to the 3.3p forecast. The 0.33p dividend is a full 10% ahead of the 0.3p forecast. Confident comments about growing organically and via acquisition, though no specific outlook comments. Pretty good then overall at first glance.
The slow-burn rise into the results later this month, which we already know will be nicely in line, continues. Finncap have retained their 45p target price.
Excellent update today - (1) the year end update confirms trading is in line with 3.3p EPS (and 0.3p dividend) expectations, and (2) another small earnings-enhancing acquisition: Http://www.investegate.co.uk/hml-holdings-plc--hmlh-/rns/acquisition-and-year-end-update/201605180700075172Y/ Looks like the market got this one wrong. Back to 40p-45p pronto hopefully given 3.5p EPS expected for the current year, and with further earnings-enhancing acquisitions likely.
They have added this share to their one to watch listing, stating that profit to rise from £1.5M this year to £1.7M, then rising to £1.8M next year. They also state that the share is trading at less than 12 times the 2016/2017 prospective earnings. Very interesting
Despite record profits here the cash position has been depleted and borrowings increased. All in the name of 'growth' but will this prove sustainable. Also a lot of goodwill attached to those recent acquisitions... Maybe improving operating profit figures will continue to appease the market but it's difficult to see the board's vision, indeed their YE results statements were only a brief read. More details needed, balance sheet trend reversal is a must.
HML got a mentioion by John Lee in the Weekend FT. He's a buy and hold man and doesn't often buy into new companies. There's a large holder (ex-parent?) selling into the market but enought buying to soak it up. When they stop selling the firm's performance should be reflected in the price.
Interesting....very interesting indeed!!!
The property management sector has taken a bit if a kicking recently however HML as a whole have held up well in the circumstances in my view. New firms such as VFM Property Management http://www.vfmproperty.com are approaching and winning new commissions with residential and mixed use property management companies with the benefit of no baggage. Given their excellent track record of proven, good performance these firms are rapidly taking market share and while most are still too small to be a threat, the larger firms like HML would do well to take note and pull up their socks.
2007: Revenue £5.81m OpProfit £0.23m 2010: Revenue £90.3m Op Profit £0.19m Anyone got any views if this is worth it?
Could this group benefit from the disaster at Erinaceous. Any news on this would be welcome