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Good to see an early buy today before tomorrow's results. Online you can only buy a maximum 15k shares at 34.71p, whilst you can sell 25k at 33p, so looking reasonably promising.
Results only days away now next Tuesday. Hopefully there will be some buying interest beforehand given the silly P/E of just 7.9.
You can sell 40k online at a premium at 35.55p, whilst you can only buy a maximum 10k at 37.98p.
As per my earlier post about stock looking hard to get hold of, just £2k of buys have now moved the price up 2p.
There is almost no stock available to buy online - the most you can buy is just 500 shares at 36p. Whereas you can sell at least 30,000, so there's a buyer or two out there.
Any demand at all should bring about an interesting price reaction.
Finncap retain their 53p target price and historic forecasts for the moment.
To recap, forecasts were for 4.3p EPS for the year just ended, with a 0.5p dividend, so 4.5p+ EPS is now likely.
There aren't yet any forecasts in the market for the current year, but after all the recent acquisitions without any dilution, forecast EPS could be say 5p+ EPS:
"Positive trading update
The group has released a positive trading update for the 12-month period to
March 2019.
Trading update. The statement confirmed that the group expects to report full year
results to March 2019 “slightly ahead of market expectations”. We are currently
forecasting a 5% increase in revenue from £26.0m to £27.3m and a similar increase
in EBITDA from £2.58m to £2.7m.
The results will be announced on 2 July 2019.
At this stage, our target price of 53p remains unchanged, implying potential upside of 66%. In our view, the current valuation metrics look unjustifiably low for a business with a proven business model, high revenue visibility and predictable cash flow profile. Our target price is based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 9x."
Excellent news. Forecasts were for 4.3p EPS for the year just ended, with a 0.5p dividend. So if HMLH make 4.5p EPS, a 35.5p share price gives a historic P/E of only 7.8.
With all the recent acquisitions, EPS could reach say 5p EPS this year, i.e a P/E of just 7.1. So still loads of potential upside to say 50p-60p:
Https://www.investegate.co.uk/hml-holdings-plc--hmlh-/rns/trading-update-and-notice-of-results/201905021238369180X/
"HML Holdings plc (AIM: HMLH), a leading provider of property management, insurance and ancillary services to residential property blocks, is pleased to announce that the board anticipates being able to report trading slightly ahead of market expectations for the 12 month period ended 31 March 2019.
The board looks forward to releasing results in relation to this period on 2 July 2019."
For the record, Finncap have issued a brief update reiterating their forecasts for the year just finished to 31/3/19, which are:
4.3p EPS
0.5p dividend
£2.3m PBT
They don't yet have forecasts for the current year. The trading update due in the next 2-4 weeks will hopefully produce the promised "further improvements" which were promised for H2.
With three acquisitions in the last four months for a total of £2m HMLH have certainly been picking up the pace.
Another small acquisition announced today. With the founder leaving the acquiree's profitability will presumably increase nicely, but there's no way of telling given no figures have been released.
I think Finncap need to have "sought" out a decent RNS editor/spellchecker....
Https://www.investegate.co.uk/hml-holdings-plc--hmlh-/rns/hml-acquires-property-management-business/201904080700083320V/
Is this business going to pay a dividend?
Is there that much to go for at the moment?
Perhaps the trading update will help.
Good to see another small earnings-enhancing acquisition whilst I was on hols.
Next month's year end trading update will hopefully confirm results at least and possibly better than forecasts at 4.3p EPS with a 0.5p dividend, especially given 2.2p EPS in H1.
Forecasts for what will then be the current year to March '20 could then be say 4.7p EPS upwards following the two recent acquisitions and with just a little organic growth.
At that point we could easily see a nice bounce with a little buying interest up to say 45p-50p - or more, especially if the market agrees with HMLH about the regulatory/statutory changes which they say are benefiting them.
New acquisition for £669,000 from cash (including £202,000 deferred consideration dependent on performance).
Per Companies House, apparently Dauntons Soar show net tangible assets of £192k at 31.3.18. There is corporation tax payable at 31st March of £21,149. If that all relates to the year then it suggests profits of £115,000 or so, so PAT of £95,000 give or take.
Given I'd assume at least some savings on say accounting and other day to day stuff, as well as consolidating the client processing operations/putting systems on the central database platform, this should a nice £100,ooo plus to profits:
https://www.investegate.co.uk/hml-holdings-plc--hmlh-/rns/hml-acquires-property-management-business/201811301039030652J/
WH Ireland retain their 53p target price, with 4.3p EPS forecast for this year.
A P/E of 7 at 30.5p is just too cheap imho:
Extracts:
"Good interim results
The group has reported a good set of interim results reflecting record half-year earnings despite an uncertain UK property market. We retain our 2019 full-year forecast and our 53p target price."
"The revenue growth was primarily organic in the absence of any material acquisitions since April 2017 and reflected a particularly strong improvement in health and safety inspections fee income. Adjusted fully diluted EPS increased by 11% to 2.1p from 1.9p."
"Strong cash flow performance. The group generated £0.51m of net cash to reduce net debt from £1.47m to £0.96m. This was driven by £1.5m cash generated from operations and despite £0.45m capital expenditure, £0.12m software purchases and £0.48m payment of deferred consideration."
2.2p EPS in H1, up 16% on last year, revenues up 11% on almost entirely organic growth - these look pretty good, and HMLH look extremely cheap at 31p or so:
This despite a stale property market as evidenced by the small fall in enquiry fees (which are a tiny % of income anyway). So a very satisfactory performance.
And the outlook is confident too:
"We continue to enjoy steady and improving volumes of new business with a marginal shift towards tendering for larger blocks and housing estates. Competition particularly from the smaller unregulated players who price keenly in the smaller block market remains strong. The growing awareness of the impending regulation of agents, now more frequently reviewed in the property press, continues to bring sellers to the market. HML remains confident in its ability to carefully select and integrate those businesses that are compatible with our service strategy. From a steady foundation in the first half of the year, we look forward to being able to update you on further improvements in the second half of the year."
Https://www.investegate.co.uk/hml-holdings-plc--hmlh-/rns/half-year-report/201811270700055379I/
I've bought a few more at 31p.
With the AGM statement confirming a positive start to the year, plus the CFO transferring his shares into a SIPP, I'm hoping the November interims will signal fresh impetus and the start of a re-rating.
With 4.3p EPS (and a 0.4p dividend) forecast this year a 50p share price is certainly justifiable.
A very satisfactory and succinct AGM statement:
"The business continues to perform well with a positive start to this year. Management remain confident that trading remains in line with expectations."
Note that expectations are for 4.3p EPS, giving a P/E of just 7.8.
15k just bought at 34.96p, and an immediate response with a tick up.
Looks like a 25k buy at 35p reported late was the catalyst for the rise. Imagine what just a little attention here would do for the share price.
Moving up nicely now.....
Agreed Dandee. Finncap have introduced a forecast of 4.3p EPS and a 0.4p dividend for this year along with that increased 53p target price - which gives 61% upside from here.
I particularly like the "27% increase in Health & Safety Inspection fees driven by a raised awareness of fire risk in communal buildings". This should continue to thrive post-Grenfell.
HMLH also "generated £1.3m of positive cash flow despite acquisition spend of £0.3m." Hopefully it's about time for another acquisition or two to further enhance earnings.
Hello - some excitement :o))
Finally ticking up, and on tiny buying. Hopefully this means not much stock available. OT : Qd22, too soon for FTC imo! May be a while yet.
Finncap retain their Buy and 48p target today - almost 60% upside - along with that 4.1p EPS and 0.4p dividend forecast. That's a historic P/E of 7.4. I assume they'll issue this year's forecasts when the full prelims are released. They also point out: "The statement also implies a strong profit performance during the second half of c. �1.2m at the adjusted PBT level, compared with �1.0m in H1 and �0.90m in H2 the previous year. This better performance over H1 was driven in part we believe by lower costs associated with acquisition integration." It seems HMLH are finally seeing all those trumpeted acquisition synergies and savings finally coming through.
Short but relatively sweet trading update today confirming trading in line for last year - that means 4.1p historic EPS per Finncap, with a 0.4p dividend. Looking extremely cheap at these levels imho: "HML Holdings plc (AIM: HMLH), a leading provider of property management, insurance and ancillary services to residential property blocks, is pleased to announce that the board anticipates being able to report trading in line with market expectations for the 12 month period ended 31 March 2018. The board looks forward to releasing results in relation to this period on 26 June 2018."
Rivaldo, sorry to be off topic, but what do you think of FTC now? You said this when you sold out last August: "FTC will remain on my watchlist. When the outlook is better - which may be a while away - then hopefully I'll be back as I think the prospects going forward remain interesting." Pardon me everyone!