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The case for US based Curtiss to acquire Hardide is absolutely compelling at this time of transition from hard chrome coatings to patented alternatives. It fits like a jigsaw piece into Curtiss' footprint and brings the funds to scale-up rapidly as the opportunity is now. Patience.....this could land tomorrow imo and that would certainly raise the game here.
Hardide just has to be lining up for a takeover here imo.
Ramp up of orders from Airbus from June
Pending order for turbine blades imminent
Matt Hamblin appointed to BoD (this was an add-on which went largely unnoticed as it was preceded by CEO Phil Kirkhams intention to retire next year. Matt Hamblin was CEO of Keronite - do the research - taken over by US firm Curtiss-Wright (NYSE:CW) last November. Curtiss shares are currently racing ahead. Given the MCap of Hardide is sub £7m at present and Matt Hamblin oversaw the buyout of Keronite this just has to be an exit route on the table. The overlap and jigsaw fit of Hardide into CW is absolutely compelling in terms of added IP, technology and geographical locations. This screams a £15-£20m successfully buyout becoming to me on all logical grounds in that both companies win. Hardide gets money to exploit expansion as it's contracts roll out and Curtiss brings that IP and tech in house to join its range of coatings tech.
Again, another huge thumbs up for Hardide. Quote....
Testing was carried out on a drilling test rig in Texas, USA. Hardide-T exceeded our customer’s performance requirements from the outset of testing and has been specified on the tool since its launch to market.
The Hardide-T coating extends the life of the bores and pins so that the drilling tool can steer as directed and last for the duration of the drilling job from surface to the target depth which is 1000s of feet vertically and/or horizontally.
The enormous barrier to entry provided by the multi-year appraisal schedules plus the embedded patents and outlay for furnaces makes me pretty certain that a takeover is the best solution here. It's a stand alone green and growing business that a big player could put under its wings and pay in advance for more furnaces as the horizon is sweet for 2024 onwards. The phasing out of hard chrome across the EEC and other regions of the world plays perfectly into Hardides court. Demand is there and growing (this will only escalate) meaning Capex now will be more than rewarded in the near term. My bet is on the likes of Gardner, BAe or Ricardo. This is the inflection point as the CEO is retiring in April or before.
Not to sure really. Every thing about HDD is slow. Airbus actually took 13 years. I think we have room, at both sites, for 4/5 more reactors. As they take a year to produce capacity will take say 2 years minimum. Although this is sufficient to put us in good profit it will not make megabucks.
We will actually need new premises and new reactors to achieve significant profits. Say 4/6 years away and using all our profits to boot! In addition, although we are continuing to register Patents our earlier ones will start expiring soon.
I've been here 17 years now and the race between dividends and the cemetery is getting harder and harder to predict!!!
The barriers to entry are huge, validation takes up to 10 years and Hardide is now in the sweet spot of acceptance by Leornardo, Airbus, General Electric and a variety of other majors with many pilots under way or nearing completion. This is a peach of an 'green' add-on for a number of top350 players. Talk about vulnerable as it transitions its CEO! Start the bidding wars as this looks a fat better use of funds than the numerous share buy backs in the market at present. Too cheap and a sitting duck for a bid imo.
1: expected large turbine order mayerialises
2: big increase seen in Airbus orders after June RNS
3: one of numerous pilot schemes brings contract order
4: takeover by big company - one of many t1s with whom Hardide works
Interesting when the disparity between MCap and intrinsic value is so big. £7m MCap for all the new factory,plant and IP is laughable..
The compelling case for Hardide is detailed here:
https://hardide.com/power-generation/
Cost savings are huge, documented and obvious.
General Electric are also trialling.
We’ve already successfully coated blades for Ansaldo Energia’s gas turbines and we’ve been working recently closely with a much larger global manufacturer of gas turbines for coating the vanes where we are expecting our first order in the next few months. Trials are also underway with other gas turbine manufacturers and we expect these to develop into revenue over the next year or so.
Intrinsic value here with sticky Airbus contracts and pipeline projects is worth substantially above £7m MCap.
Green industry being overlooked. A single order confirmation trigger here from this level will prompt rerate.
Phil Kirkham is standing down as CEO after building the company from expensive R&D to current profitable operation with scale. At 71yrs old I think the CEO is now happy that Hardide is cash generative and can hand it on to a successor. Good job well done in a sector where product acceptance and validation is protracted giving high barriers to entry. He leaves at an inflection point for Hardide as hard chrome plating is phased out due to toxicity leaving the gates open for Hardide etc. Airbus has opened the door to volume from June this year and several pilot contracts with tier 1 companies wait in the wings. A job well done and Hardide have up to 6 months to find a competent and proactive successor.
Confirmation of a large project order for the coating of turbine blades should be announced in the very near term. Also, given that Hardide is now ramping up the coating of Airbus parts (started end June this year) and has won the supply of coated parts to same from a hard chrome competitor there should be news of an aerospace uptick. All this at a time of maximum vulnerability to an opportunistic approach by the like of Gardner Aerospace, BAe, Leonardo McClaren...... adds interesting perspective. Very much undervalued for a disruptive patented tech.
Why Gardner, Airbus, Weir or a vast number of other aero/petro engineers hasn't pounced on Hardide is beyond belief.. Patience as the tech and current contracts are worth a lot more than the MCap. The turbine and industry trials are in for free and could land anytime. Dream on if you think this will drop further.....
This is as cheap as chips just for the Airbus contracts alone as the barriers to entry and length of time for accreditation are huge. Hardide has crossed both hurdles as chrome is phased out by regulation.
Oh ye of little faith..... this has multibag written aĺ over it. Provenance, IP, big historic capex now bearing fruit, pivot point to cash positive with traction. Hard chrome is history and Hardide is in the convincing sweet spot. Next step will be director purchases, then contract news or t/o.
This will go nowhere this year, when it does move it will rocket. Can see sub 10p coming.
As Alliance so succinctly puts it.....
Hardide shares fall despite eyeing improved annual results
The two are clearly at odds leaving plenty of room for substantial upside.
Had the expected wind turbine order fallen in the current year as anticipated, figures would have been significantly higher and your objectives would have been met. At least the BoD don't overpromise and underachieve. Confirmation of that order in the very near future should provide the stimulus to rerate the MCap to a sensible level.
Revenue growth is anaemic. Very disappointing given the Hardide board expanded the furnace capacity in 2019 and there has been a significant investment in Business Development resource over recent years. It is incumbent on the Hardide board to start delivering on the strategy. One ray of hope is no equity raise (yet).
Doubled up today , hopefully patience will be rewarded!!
I've always suspected they will get taken out at some point , hope its a lot higher than 30 p though !!
Crazy MCap and almost back to my buy in price. This is a s reaming add-on for so many bigger suitors as the cash starts to flow from years of R&D losses....a peach to be picked. 25-30p would be a cheap buy out price before a sensible rebate precludes it.
Why on earth doesn't the hard chrome company that lost its Airbus orders to Hardide not buy Hardide, or Airbus or many others......just a matter of patience. The only way from here is up...
The growth rate was softened by the delay of an expected large project order for the coating of turbine blades. This is now expected later in this calendar year.