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Any compelling reason to buy given what they're sayin??
Unfortunately found some in ISA
Not worth much must of be there before 2019.
05 Mar 2019 Consolidation
Now 7.75p
Down 20% today with 6.7% spread , everyday it seems one of my AIM shares tanking .
Since the last look 5th October 2022 a steady decline to today , little bounce up back to 15.5p 5th October 2023.
In hindsight should of taken a loss and got out .
Indeed , I too wonder at the low sales ....
I suppose the Covid years stunted any growth in aerospace and didn't do much for their traditional markets either but you would have thought they would be coming thru now ?
Anyway , I think i'll just average down some more and keep my fingers crossed . I also think with any decent pick up in sales it will get taken out.
GLA
It's taken Hardide ages to get aerospace approval for coatings in the airborne machinery. That gives it a big moat. Patience does wear a bit thin after all these years but I do think Hardide is on the cusp of greater things....fingers crossed.
Today feels like a good day to respond to Richie’s post from November.
The company has been around for 20 years now and we know Hardide works as advertised but the growth just isn’t happening. What is it about this product that isn’t solving a problem? I can see that for companies with a business model that revolves around maintenance (Rolls Royce for example) a coating that extends the life of components presents you with a new problem. But it just seems incredible that the market for a product such as this only amounts to £5million worth of orders.
I wasn't expecting a fundraising, the 50k and 100k sells recently were a clue I suppose although I stupidly ignored them and bought a few this week .
I agree, if demand is high enough they would be able to price at a level that would provide funding for expansion.
SCE is another company I hold that has striking similarities to HDD in that they are a British engineering company entering a safety critical market with a superior product, a recent surge in demand saw the SP at 70p+ but scale up has been problematical with them requiring additional fundraising on top of money already raised that was supposed to see them through to self funding, this has resulted in the SP falling to a 5 year low of 9.5p. If Hardide were to see a dramatic increase in demand then I would tend to agree with Dibs that a buyout may be the best option. In this situation the barriers to entry would be very relevant.
I respectfully disagree. The problem is not building capacity to cope with demand; the problem is lack of demand. Hardide is at broadly the same revenue position as it was 4 years ago pre-Covid (£3m revenue for half year) only the balance sheet strength (£4m cash) and market cap (£20m) have evaporated!
Exactly right Dibs-I to think the update re trading will be the important bit for me.l
Al180 - the barriers to entry for competitors is very high. The Moat is very wide. There are no other comparable competitors in view of the impending ban on HCP later this year. Hardide have a pretty clear run at this. However, they will need to scale at some point and THAT for me is the crux. They don’t have the capacity to scale to meet the potential future demand and, therefore, there is only one solution. Get bought out by someone who can help them realise the potential. It simply has to happen as we can’t have a continuation of the snails pace progress we’ve seen up to now. And that’s why I think we are seeing very different noises from the company now leading up to Phil Kirkhams departure.
I'm hoping for more positive progress in the aerospace sector, the adoption process has taken many years but we are now a proven product in a safety critical market. I wouldn't expect the value of this to be reflected in the market cap with the current situation but the more successful Hardide are in this sector the move valuable the barriers to entry become.
My wish list is, new contracts, new contracts, new contracts, guidance for first half year 2024 is £4m, cash on balance sheet is growing and business resilant.
In the trading update 18 Oct they said:
“Hardide expects to announce full audited results in early February 2024.”
So results are due very soon and although we pretty much know what they will be its the accompanying statement about post year ending trading and outlook for the months ahead that is of particular interest to me. I am expecting positive noises from the company.
This tiny company is potentially a significant player within the niche market they operate in.
They have a moat, a USP, excellent IP. But it has taken a long time to get to where they are to now. The opportunities are now opening up. The main issue, from what I can see, has been about scaling. It remains an issue but the obvious solution is to be acquired by a bigger player with more scale, breadth, resources, finance etc. I am convinced this will now happen because potential suitors can now see the growing commercialisation of the business. The orders are now flowing across a variety of industrial sectors. Hardide has a TINY valuation. Crazy really when you think what they could easily become with the right company buying them.
This is a sitting duck folks.
Https://hardide.com/wp-content/uploads/fischer_-_hardide_coatings-1080p.mp4
Annual results are due in early February so likely in the next 2/3 weeks max. We’ve already had the trading update so the interesting part will be an update on post year end and the Outlook. We may also have an update on the CEO appointment. Matt Hamblin the recently appointed NED looks perfectly suited for the role but he does have another position elsewhere.
Https://content.yudu.com/web/15ex3/0A2nilh/IDEJanuary2024/html/index.html?page=28&origin=reader
FlyingF - I think a take out valuation of £25-30m is most likely. This would give a handsome return on the current sub £6m (crazy) valuation.
Whether the take out comes in the short term or not (don’t forget we have a ‘Trojan Horse’ on the board now ;)) I think the shares have bottomed out. Sales are now accelerating across all sectors. The company has pledged to be more sharply commercially focused. They will be with the new NED who, incidentally, I think will be appointed the new CEO as his credentials are impeccable. Plus he will likely facilitate a takeover.
Bid not bis
I agree !! I just hope the SP recovers a bit before the bis comes in , far too cheap at present !
MC £5.89m for this company. Crazy. OK I know it’s progressed at a snails pace for years now.
However I think this is finally at an inflection point. The company operates in a number of industrial sectors covering a variety of different requirements.
Their product is top notch. Best in class. HCP is being banned later this year and Hardide have THE best replacement - USP.
Sales and contracts are only going to grow from hereonin. Here lies the rub. They have limited reactor capacity to meet future demand. They will need to scale up but do not have the resources. They are ok for now as regards capacity but longer term they will need more factories, more reactors.
There is only one viable solution - being taken out. They are so vulnerable to take over now because potential suitors can see they are on an upward sales growth across all sectors. The company is ridiculously cheap. A takeover would work excellently for Hardide and would be great value and a superb acquisition for one of a host of companies.
At this level it’s an absolute screaming buy but DYOR
Shareholders could do with some good news. Recent announcements intimated Ansaldo re-ordering plus a new turbine customer. Silence is defenening. Why is customer and revenue growth anaemic? Investment in new turbine capacity made over 4 years ago. Airbus approvals 4 years ago. What is wrong?