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Perhaps, the ‘analysts’ in London and US were unable to ‘analyse’ CHMP’s POSITIVE opinion about fruq….
This morning, they seemed to have realised the meaning of ‘positive opinion’, of course, after getting a clue from HK.
Approaching round numbers $20, always a favourite for prop traders as investors breath a sigh of relief crossing said threshold, only for the rug to be unceremoniously pulled from under ..
Text book stuff..
'Approaching round numbers $20, always a favourite for prop traders as investors breath a sigh of relief crossing said threshold, only for the rug to be unceremoniously pulled from under ..'
Remember reading a post from Jatw about Takeda’s results, scheduled for tomorrow, 9th May.
Any predictions about profit from fruq..sales, ex-China and income to HCM?
Points of interest to HCM shareholders will be;
-progress Takeda has achieved with fruq.. sales in the USA
-expected date of approval for Fruq..from European medical agency (received a positive opinion from CHMP, recently).
Takeda reported 15m sales in the Nov/Dec period. There may have been some stocking of the pharmacy chain within that rather than actual paying patients, but they should be adding customers who will on average be under going treatment for sometime, so there should be compounding of sales increases going on .
I am guessing somewhere between $30m (the run rate from 2023) and $50m (adding $5m in new patients monthly) for in-market sales….Lets see.
HCM gets a mid teens royalty and manufacturing fees (in 2023, HCM got $5m manufacturing and $2m royalty on 15m sales. ….I assume most of the profit will come through royalty and the product costs dont come with much markup.
The new corporate presentation has only changed the summary of registration studies slide as far as I can tell. Amdiz has been removed (Ph 3 trials needed so beyond the timescale, but also may be deprioritised). 453 has been added/confirmed.
NB In a revenue forecast, Trinity Delta estimated only $100m of Takeda sales….if that is accurate my 30-50 range could be very optimistic!…but 100m is only 8.5m per month.
I am expecting a pattern more like this for the monthly sales (excluding stock transactions)(first two in 2023)
5,10,15,20,25 (Q1 sales of 60m) (this would be a very strong performance)
3,6,9,12,15 (36m)
2.5,5,7.5.10.12.5 (30m) (this is my lower estimate)
Amones, the EU approval of the MAA should follow 67 days after the CHMP opinion is received.
So a little over 3 months. It should be approved in July.
The China approvals seem more variable and less certain.
The Fruq sNDA for Gastric cancer has been in for 13m already, but the company is anticipating that Orpathys may get its extension to 1l within 8m.
The BTD/Priority reviews for Sovlep (Jan) and Fruq+Sintilimab (Apr) seem to be expected after about 9m.
I dont think China issues a decision due date like the US PDUFA, I agree some greater clarity would be helpful not least for the company to plan product launches.
Close to a 12 month high in HK, Hang Seng up over 1% with bullish calls on China,
What a nice way to end the week! It reminds me of the good old days back in 2010-2015 when we often ended a week with a litle surge like this. And whereas in October 2022 we needed a five-fold increase we now only need to double. Highly achievable. GLA.
SS AKA HCMS
ss aka hcms, agree with you. it’s been good two to three consecutive weeks for hcm. hopefully, we are approaching towards the brighter end of the tunnel. last two years had been rough ride for the long term shareholders. over the other side of world, experience of investors who joined during hkse listing of “lucky” 0013 has been not so pleasant either. in spite of the recent progress, friday’s closing sp is well behind the listing price (?hkse40).
i was reading recent posts on adv.n from 1jat (?a.k.a jatw). the company is cash rich and a dividend of 10p per share/ hk$ 1 is possible, provided the management wishes to express their gratitude towards the shareholders. however, the company has passed a resolution in its agm giving right to the directors to buy back the shares. which is better, buy back scheme or a first ever dividend?
takeda’s financial figures (fru*****inib sales) are very encouraging. is hcm obliged to release a statement quoting the actual payment /profit resulting from fruq… golbal sales ? that should help shareholders to understand the actual profit from that source.
thanks to jatw for the informative posts.
Yes amones, one and the same.
HCM will be fully grown up when it needs to decide its approach to returns to shareholders…..assuming their plans come about that should be the 2026 financial year.
That is assuming they have not spent any spare cash on adding to the pipeline (either by expanding the research, in-licensing or corporate M&A).
Cash burn is reducing - which means they should have several hundred million USD to decide what to do with. A nice problem to have.
The figures for a dividend are HKD1 / 10p/12.5c 850mhkd / 85GBP / 105USD.