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The Gym Group was always on my watch list. Felt it to expensive at 240 though. I think the sell off is over-done. Gyms aren't shutting down, and actually the PMs speech yesterday said going out for exercise (i.e. Gyms) is a valid reason. I know Gyms are seen to be dirty, but in 2-3 months (or less), will see a lot of people go back. Personally, I can't wait to go back to the gym.
I'll be opening up a holding here once I can top up my ISA. This and WH Smith will be the two shares I target from the sell-down. They're both well placed.
Have wider share's i'm also targeting in the next 3 weeks that fit in with my income strategy :).
I agree. People will return to the gym in droves eventually. :D Everyone will want to work on their bods for beach holidays later in the year. :D
I am a member and I am keeping my membership . At £15.95 a month I keeping it . Not the end of the world if cannot use it for a few months. Other members I know will do the same
I think the shares are a great long term bet . Yes I can see that membership numbers will take a hit bit think they can survive . It’s a profitably business and surely they could secure more cash if needed / scale back any expansion plans . Ride it out .
What could shares be in two years time .. back to £2+ I think
Can a company like this survive this? Gyms, Cinemas, restaurants all will be casualties!!
I hear what Cripes is saying - purly from a functional point of view, the absolute minimum i would have expected a business like this should be doing is keeping the place clean and providing sanitizing products for gym goers to use - not a single pot of sanatizing fluid/foam in site!!
Watch out for VAT and rent quarters. Look also at new site openings with limited revenue on opening. Look at cash at year end. DYOR
....as well as cancelling I took out a short. It’s people like me that are capitalising on brands whose products and services and business model leaves them exposed to this type of unusual situation. Long May this hysteria reign! It might be that they have to take a low ball offer to take this thing private. Let’s see.
And try not to be emotional Gunner.
Ha!
It's people like you , cancelling a dirt cheap membership and not exercising due to minimal risk of catching a moderate flu, that are fueling the mass hysteria and contributing to the overblown market chaos.
Gym Group sells it’s membership contracts on an easy in easy out basis. Members will cancel their membership, as I have, while this thing works it’s way through. Gyms already have a poor reputation for hygiene standards and once members have left post January peak sales they ain’t comin back for a while. IMO DYOR!
Seems to be a bias, rightly or wrongly, against companies who's business relies on a high turnover of strangers gathering in confined areas. IWG (global office rental) RTN (Wagama, Frankie & Bennies) have all been hit pretty hard as have oil companies, the effect of which is more obvious re drop in demand and price. Should be a good opportunity her, but there is likely to be some impact on numbers be it shot term hopefully. Fear of the unknown I suppose, but it does seem a little strange as the majority of effected people appear to recover quickly and without being too ill. It doesn't appear to be and hopefully is not more serious than any other annual flu virus as yet. Flu viruses are not normally under such scrutiny, so this much publicity and portrayal has added to concerns. Wishing everyone well goes with it saying
I can't imagine GYM will be hit too hard. the virus would have to get alot worse to stop UK persons cancelling gym memberships. Possibly less new memberships for this month but hopefully impact is not too bad
GREAT START to the new year, moving in to 2020 with confidence imo.
more gyms, more members per gym, steady growth in fees. Great management and the chance of merger/buyout
Maybe a little early for a re-rate but can't be far off after todays news. Interesting to hear how the presentation goes for the new smaller gym rollouts.
I see LSE have the PE ratio at 45 while Hargearves Lansdown have it at 29. As profitability has increases I would think HL is more accurate and LSE are notoriously slow update information. Due to the low volumes this does seem to slide back without news, but long term support and the staff incentive share plan are good. Question of patience
lets face it, this management know their business and sector. also know what their clients want, which allows them to grow.
youth turning off booze and getting the fitbit/apple watch fitness bug. its a SIGNIFICANT social change., cash in on it -buy 350p
Poorly communicated messages to the market about price reductions in c13 gyms, however this is part of the model to adjust pricing to increase membership in more price elastic areas. If you track the pricing of various gyms you can see pricing has increased in over half of these and gyms such as Monument London are no longer advertised as already reached mature gym status (i.e. 43% EBITDA margin) and this was done in c6 months vs the 2-3 year average management guide too. So there were concerns of reaching saturation and a race to the bottom on pricing, however aside from Pure Gym and GYM competition has fallen away as the low cost gym model only works at scale, 3 smaller operators have gone into administration this year and no.3 and no.4 players have opened no further gyms this year as its all about location of which GYM and Pure Gym have dedicated property teams so ahead of the competition. PwC recently put out a report on UK gyms highlighting the last 5 years of gym growth is nearly all driven by low cost operators and are guiding to the UK having capacity for c500 further gyms like this over the next 5 years, which would mean GYM would have an estate of 248 gyms by then. This also excludes the small box format gyms that management guide to having the similar 30% ROI to their traditonal format, of which they could have 57 in 5 years taking the total estate to c305. GYM is also at the inflection point of self funded growth from FCF as lets remember if you exclude expansionary capex GYM sits on a c12% FCF yield and as recently as July there was a 0.3% average increase in pricing across the estate. If the next set of results continue in the same way as the last FY and trading update it should help bring back confidence in the stock. Finally in terms of people no longer going to the gym because of macro conditions, remember this was a company that was born in a recession with the first gym opened in 2009.
doesn't look that comfortable just now! Some excruciating dumps this a.m. Would think half a million sale put a bit of pressure on the stock. Other than that are people going to stop keeping fit and a fair price? I don't think so
yes, should move comfortably psst 350p imo
Very encouraging Korg. I suppose the logic is that the company has grown substantially since the shares hit £3.35 last September, so why the slow market reaction. I actually bought some more yesterday when it slipped back . Either the fund managers have adjourned for the summer or they are just happy churning bank shares and telecommunications. What are the dangers that the other competitors will start to copy their model? It will become more competitive but they seem pretty well ahead of the game for now, or the potential is they will get eaten by a bigger fish as they have done themselves. Either way plenty of upside yet.
Conference call. Sound VERY confident
hTTps://www.tggplc.com/media/94032/9397158mp3.mp3
massive volume on several large trades. should move higher on an growth update like that.
Think they have proved they are a hot stock. Stunningly quiet for a hot stock on this bb. Set sail for £3.00 plus on my own then!
Thanks ma'am! perhaps you could explain what drives share prices on your video cos its nothing to do with volume or buys v sells. GYM particularly defies explanation but fortunately have traded quite well more by luck than judgement. Just hope they have something amazing to tell us Friday