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@Krustysmegma - BSIF is on my list to investigate. Do you hold? Interested in your rationale / investment case if you are minded to share...
Yielding over 11% on 7p dividend now sidi, it won't stay like that forever...
BSIF is another, confirmed dividend target of 8.8p which is approximately twice covered and still near year-low sp @ just over £1...
What causes this unstoppable fall to all the renewable shares? It seems that I haven't made a mistake for selling my GSF. I have also sold my HEIT last year when it fell to 115 from its peak 126. Now HEIT has fallen to just 33.65p, what a lucky escape!!😱😱😱
Its not as simple as that, with regards to transferring energy from wind farms to where its needed - this bottleneck of BESS only exists in certain specific locations near scotland (could be maybe one or 2 projects from GSF). most BESS does not perform this duty and simply look for ways to balance the grid. however the simple Ancilliary balancing of the grid is saturated and no longer required. there are some schemes from the govt to slowly look at stabilising the grid etc but there are many BESS companies that will quickly fill any gaps with high profit margins. this leaves BESS in the UK as unlikely to be very profitable for the nextt few years because the UK does not want to electrify heating etc. and windfarm supply while increasing, alreay supplies a lot of tthe electricty needs so may not increase much further.
in the usa like cali and texas, we dont know how they will regulate the grid but its likely profit will stay higher there for longer. so there is that which is a positive for GSF - however you would have to assume they will deliver this all on time
The National Grid pays offshore wind farms not to produce because they can't store the electricity. The problem isn't an oversupply of storage but a lack of infrastructure to transfer the electricity from where it's generated/stored to where it's needed. Successive governments have completely mismanaged the whole process; they thought that they could solve the energy supply problem by simply licencing more offshore wind farms but, without the nessessary infrastructure, it's as good as useless. They are a bunch of dolts. The government's green energy policy is as linked up as a sieve!
As regards BESS, there's clearly insufficent capacity (otherwise they wouldn't be paying wind farms not to produce) but if the price remains low then no new capacity will be built after the existing projects are built out. New battery technology isn't really a threat. Half the problem at the moment building new storage is getting the necessary licences and building permits; once operational, replacing existing batteries with more efficient batteries further down the line should not be a problem (they may have planned on existing facililties being operational for more than, say, 50 years but that does not mean that they necessarily expected the current battery technology to remain in operation for the whole of that time period; you're mixing apples and pears).
Also, with more efficient battery storage, the possibility of green hydrogen comes a step closer. I don't expect that we'll ever see a take up of hydrogen-powered cars but hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles, HGVs, tractors, buses, trains etc. are certainly a more realitsic possibility (electricifcation of the whole railway network would not only be very costly and, for the most part, not value for money, but also very disruptive). We could also see hydrogen being mixed with natural gas for use in heating systems; existing gas boilers can use a 75:25 mix of natural gas and hydrogen.
The whole renewables industry is struggling and one key reason is that natural gas is now cheaper than it any time it has been this century at $1.66 per MMBTU having been over $10 on the Ukraine and other spikes.
They cant reassure investors about the dividend since the company cannot guarantee anything beyond a year - as you saw with the UK grids changing quickly.
lower rates wont help this much since the whole BESS industry is quite saturated and there just isnt the demand for this storage at the moment. they overbuilt and are waiting for demand to catch up but as you can see they continue to keep building!
I'm not sure what GSF needs to do apart from the RNS they published to reassure their investors. In terms of dividends, investors need to take their word that it won't be impacted.
The only other thing that could help is the Director purchases - not sure if they are in a closed period with end-of-the-year reporting and dividend declaration expected in 3 weeks or so. Time will tell but I will be adding more of these - hopefully making a right choice.
Delays to usa projects (which seem very likely since they are not in tthe usa and they even delivered uk projectts latte) and grid saturation in the usa right after they deliver the bess there.
also at the moment they are earning 25% of expected revenue in the UK (expected by tthe rrevenue curves) - so how are they going to pay the dividend if anything similar happens in other grids.
battery storage using li-ion could be obselete in 10 years so no point trying to predict any revenue beyond 10 years from now.
BESS systems depreciate and so the depreciation is probably faster than they generate revenue (in the UK). the whole BESS industry is run by fools who couldnt pace their investments, they would have been better off leaving the raised money in a savings account
GRID and HEIT have acknowledged they cant. What risks do GSF need to acknowledge that they havent already done so and that is not universally understood
Because gore street is pretending it will be able to keep its dividend and that everything is fine (when they have serious risks they need to acknowledge). the market will humble them until they admit this
One thing for sure there is something not right. GHE is currently up and HEIT are down but less than GSF which last week was supposed to be the one shining light in this sector. Obviously not what the big boys think - but why??
It's absolutely not personal. none the less everyone else here is not objective but rather subjective.
why are the directors not buying at this level if they believe the company is worth 112 pence a share
He did rather spam the board yesterday. One of your quotes starbright
"Too much regurgitated LSE bulletin board nonsense on these topics…"
It isn't personal. It's just a BB! I think there was rather malicious personal statements about the BoD yesterday. That did feel personal. All IMHO.
I only have my toe in this water, but it's an interesting sector with plenty of potential.
A bitter blizzard of accusations @alibaba42. Looks somewhat personal…
You can - as you say - wait for clarity on UK revenue generation under the new framework, and for completion of the US rollouts. But likely not at the yield available today. A risk/value judgement; your call is different to mine - that’s what makes a market.
“…GSF have simply thrown some batteries into a GRID put in an operator and said ok thats done whats next - oh the uk grid is saturated (which they realised late) - lets do the same in the USA.
…they are reactive and not actually lokking forward into the market and trying to anticipate trends and how their assets can benefit from it.”
“…there have been a bunch of people in energy storage who think they are smarter than they are and GSF is certainly one of them.”
“…they thought they were smart to choose smaller batteries which turned out to be incorrect (because they cannot participate in Blaancing Mechanism”
“…GSF is arrogantly contuing to purse their expansion into more small batteries in the UK without really considering the futurre revenues tthese will generate”
“…GSF and rest of 'im the smartest guy in the room' will end up being acquired at below NAV once the dust settles and smart people with good capital allocation can acquire these muppets”
“…GSF think they know it all but it has proven to be false so far in UK.“
Morning
Yesterdays trades information
Looks like somebody’s dumping.
Vol Sold 2,714,522
Vol Bought 1,397,041
Who knows the reason for the dump hopefully the sellers just want liquidity and aren’t aware of any issues.
Atb
I have a small position here at around 68, but now after further research. i would buy more at much lower prices but it also depends on the mgmt responses and the grid outcomes so i would want to wait a year before buying more (to see the USA grid trends and ensure those projects are delivered more or less on time).
i think management need to pause a few things, do some analysis, and report accurate and concise/relevant data taking an objective view of decisions/capital allocation, performance and then start thinking about trends and how they will take advantage.
they may also want to double check that all the projects will give them a good ROI and if not then put some on ice until the grid rebalances. We are all working on the assunption that UK and other grids will electrify heating and more transport but that seems like its still a long way off - and who knows how regulations will impact those timelines.
they need to work with the grid as it is and be smart
Alibaba - I take it with your price projections you’re out?
I not talking about the business model, but cashflows. GSF have simply thrown some batteries into a GRID put in an operator and said ok thats done whats next - oh the uk grid is saturated (which they realised late) - lets do the same in the USA.
they are reactive and not actually lokking forward into the market and trying to anticipate trends and how their assets can benefit from it. the same will happen in the USA because ancilliary services get saturated quickly. after that things like balancing the grid etc arre harder to do for small batteries but the trading strategy also becomes much more important for returns.
they think they are smart because they lumped a bunch of batteries in the uk and usa - but they need to start lokoing into the data and trying to see how the grids will change and what oportunities they have for their assets. Grids and the world are changing fast and there are many companies capable of putting in some batteries and choosing an operator.
the rewards will go to companiies that cann annticipate and predict grid dynamics, take advantage, be nimble with capital and fast delivery to get the right assets in the rightt place/timme and a smart trader to trade this - dumb batteries will produce dumb low profitts
There's no comparison with GRID, they're completely different business models. I thought you said you'd done more research?
I have done more research and thought about t some more. if the revenue from a GRID can drop off that quickly and if the revenue curves are thatt inaccurate, the margin for error must be larger.
there have been a bunch of people in energy storage who think they are smarter than they are and GSF is certainly one of them. they thought they were smart to choose smaller batteries which turned out to be incorrect (because they cannot participate in Blaancing Mechanism which will become the larger part of grid revenues in UK). GRID is spending money upgrading their systems to longer duration to allow them to be more flexible with their assetts - GSF is arrogantly contuing to purse their expansion into more small batteries in the UK without really considering the futurre rrevenues tthese will ggenerate (or more importantly how). GSF think they know it all but it has proven to be false so far in UK.
in the USA grids will clearly follow a similar path to the UK since the UK is just ahead by a few years. givenn the USA has also got the 30% capital refund, the BESS systems will saturate the grid even faster there.
GSF and rest of 'im the smartest guy in the room' will end up being acquired at below NAV once the dust settles and smart people with good capital allocation can acquire these muppets et al.
Dodger - go back a bit he was saying 80p was a good buy…. He’s all over the gaff - anyway I simply had to take some just under 64p, surprised by the fall but with the divi held will ride it out till the cavalry (USA) come on line
You said the other day 65 was a good price to buy and now you are coming away with 45 or 50p ..nonsense
This is not about UK capitulation - there are many UK stocks trading at much higher levels than 3 or 6 months ago, this is about people now wanting to be left holding something that doesnt avtually produce the expected cashflows.
at the moment Gore street has done a terrible job of annticipating UK revenues (and their capital allocation) and they will likely have similar issues in the USA as grid saturation takes hold there.
Gore street has a right and wrong price. this is the wrong price and its likely the right price is 50 or in the worst case 45 -and ill be buying a lot then, but not much at theese levels.