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Hi BFD
in truth I held GGP under GH at sub 1p made a modest profit and it funded my mortgage. Didn't hold the full ride but it was the right decision at the time.
I keep an eye on GGP and I am bullish for GGP however as you know I am a stickler for details.
My understanding is GGP could be 'outbid' for the 70% they have to match to have first rights ? And there is some whales circling I imagine.
Either way HAV will be mined without question. By who ? That's the question.
The only way Newmont can put any valuation on the 70% is if it includes Telfer processing the ore so fair valuation it cannot include Telfer , Newmont has not valued the 70% this way because they know its going to be very low if they do .I think GGP are the only real option for Newmont to sell to unless our 30% is sold as well and one buyer takes it all .I think we will buy the 70% and Telfer as a package deal on very good terms its the only realistic option for Newmont.
It addresses the issues that count. It is, in my opinion, why the price is where it is, reflecting the view of punters at large.
Resuming the decline will help. In the end, it is all about the money in the here and now.
Reads like straw clutching fud to me. Off to the green bin you go.
I dont think stopping does anything to value - its not like the gold is going anywhere. I just think the aquifer is a a convenient excuse that could drag on for months. Shaun just stated that water extraction was lower than expected - so whats stopping the restarting of the decline. Its taking a lot longer than previous 2 aquifers. If you were on the board at newmont - you might think development money better spent elswhere. They obviously dont think they will get a significant return for any further develepmont costs - otherwise why sell it...And we have no idea what any contract states regading payment for the development - so no point to speculate that newmont HAVE to continue. I would be pleasently surprised if the decline restarts in next few weeks - But I just cannot see it until the 70% is sold.
Property, plant and mine development, net -- $380m
Other assets -- $327m
Carrying value of assets held for sale -- £707m
valuation = £373m
Reclamation and remediation liabilities -- 207m
Other liabilities -- $127m
Carrying value of liabilities held for sale -- $334m
Of course the directors will do what is required to support the project. I suspect when that is done and dusted, they will have afforded themselves the opportunity to buy shares.
If your selling something to don’t stop all work and grind to a halt. What does that do to your value?
It is basically a long play...if investors have the money, the risk factor inside them and the patience!
If we acquire all of Telfer/Hav and SD and the BoD's long reaching in the Paterson and beyond, quest to get another strike lands...all bets for this stock are off!
That's my end goal!
All is crossed. If anyone can.....
All of this including the on-going cost of development will be in the mix, with Telfer liability, in the agreement to final price/royalties or whatever, they know all, and the team of Managers and BOD will ensure we are funded to bring home the GOLD, and be self financing.
HAPPY DAYS ahead.
I don't think it's a choice - they're contractually committed until they're not contractually committed (by divesting). It's not as though GGP have supplied 3 blokes, new crest supply 7, and now they're not going to show up.
I expect the decline to continue as it wa until a new owner is in contract.
I don't think they'll stop digging. They still need to pay for wages & equipment, regardless.
Glad we are waking up to the 70%. More pressing question is who is going to continue to pay for 70% of the development and decline....I doubt Newmont will if they have decided to sell. I doubt GG will as they cant afford it. I see the decline being pretty much stopped until Newmont sell the 70% ....
Daz most likely scenario is increase in debt facility and Forrest takes a stake in one guise or another.
Are you buying in here, be good to have another KOD BOD
It was 220m Australian (£130m ) to see Ggp’s 30% “well positioned to be fully funded in respect of the Feasibility Study targeting an expansion to around 3Mtpa “ . You have to scale that accordingly for development and add to any acquisition cost.
And keep in mind there maybe other previous metals waiting to be discovered too,
Remember it is elephant country after all
GLA
And what was Newmont's valuation of Telfer/Havieron in their latest quarterly report.
$373 Million from my recollection.
However, in discussions on the subject SD has stated that his belief is that the current debt agreed with the banks would be scalable, and if we were attain 100% of Havieron, then he believes we could negotiate an increase of the debt from $220 Million US to $733 Million US.
Daz,
Nobody knows. Not me & not anyone on this board, only SD and the management team know what they'll do. We'll find out in good time. Again, it's all about the numbers now.
Rex
Charta
Thanks
Are they looking to loan or get in bed with another major.
Appreciate the conversations.
'the telegraph on fire' or why the whole paper is being sold - if they could find a buyer....
Basically…. Whilst our current position is in flux due to uncertainty etc … our future is all aligning if it all pans out as we hope and suspect , for this golden / copper storm !
The telegraph is on fire today !
Re the gold standard and the dollar amidst countries like China protecting themselves and their currency fears by stockpiling on gold etc and out old Gordon Browns madness in history of selling our own gold supplies down the river : here’s another media extract today :
‘Common sense would tell you that gold is a very old form of money and holding some of it might provide protection against the contingencies thrown up by history. But history seemingly held little weight for Blair’s cult of the expert.
It holds a great deal of weight today, with premature declarations of its end now looking particularly foolish. The geopolitical order is being shaken violently and there are no guarantees that the dollar-based system, born out of the last global conflict in the Second World War, will be with us forever.
In such a world there is every reason to believe that people might return to older forms of money to weather the uncertainty, or even to try to create a new monetary system. If something is not broken, there is no need to fix it as the old saying goes – and the gold standard has worked as a way to do business time and time again.’
A brief extract re copper vale to the growth sectors globally , taken from todays ‘D Telegraph ‘:
‘ While the demand for copper is likely to remain high for years to come, matching it with supply is going to be difficult. The time between exploration and production is measured in years, and it is very costly. Buying existing supply is a cheaper, quicker and easier option – but there aren’t many pure-play copper miners available.
‘The price of copper, even at a two-year high of nearly $10,000 a tonne, might be poised for further gains’
Lack of supply is one of the principal reasons to think that the price of copper, even at a two-year high of nearly $10,000 a tonne, might be poised for further gains.
Copper production, like that of all commodities, is highly cyclical. To make it worth the cost, with the environmental challenges and the long and risky timescales, the price needs to rise from here.’
Dont forget about the copper !
GLA!