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Honestly, anything over 5 moz would be great, 10 would be (must pause this comment while GH looks for a new superlative)...
....
(I got nothing)
Been absent for a while on the board. Really good thread this one with some well thought out estimates. 7-8moz would be fantastic for the MRE. I'd love it if it could round up to 10moz, that would be quite the headline figure
In my 26th July post I described my attempt at a MRE estimate. It was remarkably similar to Paddy's. I visualised a very simple 3D model of the resource based on the images on Page 5 of the recent Newcrest Update. My conservative estimate is approx. 8 million ounces of gold. Using the chart in Investor Journey’s ‘GGP Stock Analysis (22 June)’ with an assumed gold price of £1750/oz and an 8m oz reserve I came to the conclusion that a fair SP is 37p (AISC = $912 and includes an allowance for the associated copper value). Assessment ignores unpublished data on Haverion and any value attributed to Scallywag etc so lower end of fair SP.
I know exactly what you mean TMT....don't be a stranger. As I said well meaning and well researched posts! More like you on here please
Observer....Take 5....all -time fave. well played!
ATB
"As for the rest...haven't met you so I couldn't say!:-)"
One of the nicest things anyone's said to me all day. :)
As to the research, I expect that to be fading away soon, work is about to get real. I think GGP will manage to somehow go forward without my contributions, LOL. Will check in from time to time, of course, but maybe mostly on weekends. Hate these spells but they pay the bills.
Meant as a compliment TMT:-)You do put out a lot of well researched info on here which is great.
As for the rest...haven't met you so I couldn't say!:-)
Re the warrants...I am not certain of that either but guess it would make sense!
ATB
Hi Spratt1982. Trying to work out the value of Hav/GGPSP is akin to saying where does the universe stop. There are too many unknows to make a rational decision. It may be good fun wishing for 30% of 20m ozs with AISC of $200/oz with the POG@$2k. Fair enough to say one hell of a lot more than todays SP. ATB Speedy
Another reminder @ 15 minutes in - re the potential value of the gold resource:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q34v4V_Fxds
Z
Historically gold in the ground hasn't often gone for that price. But gold in the ground also doesn't often have the Telfer mill next door, and has never been sold when the market for gold is over $2K. So I am pretty sure you are in the ballpark.
I think we'll get much better value for it holding it until it comes out of the ground. Like maybe $1500 / oz instead of $500. But you have to wait for that, a long time for some of it. And besides feeding some LTHs a nice dividend, we also have some holes we'd like to drill and that costs money. So getting at least some of the money sooner may make sense.
Spratt have a look at the link on Tom the bomb post 16-22 :-)))
TMT, thanks.. I agree there are a lot of variables which could significantly change the value here but a best/ worst case is all I was after and something to back up the figures..$500 is still pretty low IMO but great if in the ball park.
@Spratt
Many variables as to the value of gold in the ground. What is the projected AISC? What is the projected POG (it can go down, you know)? How long will it be before it comes out of the ground? What is the likelihood of it actually being mined (in our case, pretty much 100%, even if the market hasn't agreed to that yet)?
So very hard to value it at this point. But the Cu and other factors points towards a relatively low (even if not Cadia-low) AISC. Most economic and geo-political factors point towards a prospective POG for the life of the mine well in excess of $2K. We seem to be rushing with almost unseemly haste towards production (not complaining, faster, faster!).
I'd be quite happy with a value of $500, and higher is certainly very possible. I doubt it's below $350-400 in this case. Obviously it's worth more than that mined, that's an in-the-ground value.
I'm in awe of the depths of information you guys impart on this board.
I mostly lurk and can certainly not contribute constructively having first deciding to delve into the dark world of shares just about 2 1/2 weeks ago.
I just wanted to show my appreciation of all your efforts (though of course I appreciate they are not for my benefit) and look forward to learning more as time goes by.
Oh, sure, panama, compliments, compliments! I know what you really mean. Back in school the best-looking girls always complimented the "diligent and smart" guys but they never actually wanted to be seen with them! "Dull and plain" more like it, and that's just because you're too nice to say "butt-ugly"!
I'm just guessing about the warrants, don't know for sure, but the evidence seems to fit. I could be wrong again.
Deal Tig!:-)
Panama,I would not take much persuading to give you a personal report , over a large G T in the bar of the Mitre .
Tig
Lats time we visited this subject we came up with $444 used in reference with Cadia....
make sure you report back Tig- we'd all be interested in any musings :-)
ATB
I am open to any starring film offers. But right now ,I am off down the sunlit road for a pint ( or two ) with ipad and dimvestor, at The Rising Sun, just to muse over the next months progress of the GGP SP.
Enjoy your evening.
Tig
Anyone have any estimates for AISC for Hav?, if there are any industry references which might be in the ball part it would be appreciated.
Thanks
you know your place!
Ok ok...Jerry can write his article containing important information regarding warrants and options and I shall write one regarding complete tosh. Good trade off I feel.
Hahaha!!! Mush you should be on stage yourself methinks!! Write the Greatlander book ...and if it gets to 84p just for Hav and then Scally strikes.....you can cast away cos we will all retire early and be available to cast in your movie!:-)
panama...what I think and what I write are two...entirely...different things.
Anyway, who cares about cake craving when we are going to be fat cats!
84p...yes...I see it now..floating down from the blue sky. Maybe the Almerian sky where they filmed many spaghetti westerns because of it's unusual sparkle, across the sea and landing on a yacht sailing gently around the headland.
'Once upon an 84p '. I see the film title now ,starring Panama Welch and Tiger Tiggerman as the man with a name.
Coming to a boxcut near you now.
Woah Spratt, when you start bandying figures like that about, I tend to wobble a bit. I feel much safer when people talk 20p.