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One of the most meaningless posts I've ever had to endure. Ifs buts maybes? Ggp value has quite clearly gone up without any production from any tenement so we all know theres gold and we all know it will feed telfa at least with gold and probably copper moves to rio but hey what ever is to be is to be the ones that have large investments have acknowledged old risk high reward if you cant see it so be it
LOL, as long as you get the blind luck right, you're ahead of all the professionals.
Thanks for the post, TMT. I'm not buying a house in Portugal, but will have to raise £450 to pay the rent in December, plus £10 a day for food and booze. It's the price of unemployment.
Cheers tmt. A good breakdown. I will make a decision soon on the tactics applying my normal system of 1/3 market awareness, 1/3 guess, 1/3 blind luck. :)
@Mush, things to consider.
1. MRE's tend to be smaller than expected. It doesn't mean there's less gold, it means the maiden estimate is always cautious -- they want to spare the maiden's blushes. It is possible, I think it is probable, that ours will be lower than a lot of people here expect, and that the initial market reaction will be negative, until cooler heads prevail and the SP recovers. If I am right, and you are needing to access funds, waiting for the MRE might be a mistake. Those ramping the MRE might not be doing you any favours. The SP will recover, I'm very sure of that, but if you don't have time to wait for a recovery....
2. It is common for GDXJ buys to see a big runup prior to the buy, and then a drop off. The drop off ends at a much higher level than the pre-runup price, but much lower than the spike. We saw this last time. The best time to sell, if you were selling was into the closing auction on Friday. But the Monday-Wednesday preceding were great times to sell as well, especially Wednesday. This time, that's the 15th. Behaviour may be far different this time, of course.
3. The size of the GDXJ buy is undetermined but is not going to be as big as last time and so probably won't have as much effect. This is determined by the SP at the end of November. You should be hoping it gets above 27p by then for the largest GDXJ impact.
4. Scallywag is a wild-card. If we have bad results, it's going to hurt whenever it hits. That's silly because Hav is worth more than our current SP but it doesn't matter, if Scally doesn't appear to be economical to mine, the SP will drop. If we get good results, it will go up. But there's no way to predict when this news will drop -- hopefully before December. Hopefully early enough that if results are bad we'll have recovered by the time you sell.
5. GH knows how to read the markets. It's possible he knows the MRE is going to be lower than a lot of PIs expect, and that he's planning to drop good Scal news on the same day that a lower-than-expected Hav MRE comes out, to support the SP. Would he do that? You decide.
Good luck with it all. No one can tell you what's going to happen, what the MRE will be, how the market will react in the runup to GDXJ, when Scally news will hit. But these things are all likely to be factors in SP behaviour in mid-December when you are thinking of selling, so things to consider. You'll know more by that time. Good luck with it, hope the SP goes high enough that you can raise the necessary funds whilst still holding some of your shares.
Fenix..I have to say your post yesterday morning was a classic..but todays post is about someone else doing well from this share..there's only so much that can be said at moment until next week
A week before christmas might be gh,s idea of a christmas presant for us all :).
Yeah, the hardest part for me is always the sell.
A year ago we were all dreaming of an SP of 20p...
Now we are all dreaming nearer a £1...
I think it will all become much clearer by Xmas, and nice gifts for our family and friends will no doubt come of it for many, where I’ll probably slice 10-20% off and leave the rest for retirement fund. Topping ISA up annually as CGT allows.
Mushroomkid. Good buy. It’s a dream fulfilled. It sounds idyllic. Owning these shares is good but owning a dream cannot have a value placed on it. Priceless.:-)
Mushkid,
Yes, understood. didn't realise/forgotten property was abroad. That does change the dynamics.
Good luck to you. Make sure you hold onto as many shares as you can.
Hi Elise.
The brokers will not lend against shares, but will introduce you firms that will.
Banks used to have trust companies that specialised in this type of lending, but not sure that they do, nowadays.
I borrowed 25 years ago, at market rate, from HSBC (Midland then), against my RR shares and also a life policy.
They advanced 100% of life policy, and 80% of shares value.
I guess back then RR was seen as a rock solid British institution. Wouldn't be nowadays!!
GGP probably more valuable than RR now!!!
WTF? Who are you - The Minister for Housing? Bye the way - here's how to spend your money and where to go on hols while you're at it.......
Heard it all now.....
Z
Hi selecta,
Thank you for your thoughts. You may well be right and ordinarily I would endorse the logic but for two reasons this must be done:
1) The property is in Portugal. It has over three acres of land, crying out for the fishing pond I have always wanted and more fruit and olive trees than you have ever seen. It's quiet and lovely. If the value goes down so be it because for me it is priceless.
2) It's already as cheap as chips. :)
Releasing my grip on the shares will be hard...but it will happen.
Hi Mushkid,
May i offer some thoughts for you, in connection with proposed house purchase.
In my view, house prices will fall away next year. We have the mother of all recessions approaching post covid. Gov't is running out of ammo to keep the economy tottering along. Unemployment will increase, company failure will increase.
Property market bound to suffer.
GGP is sat on a golden nest-egg. Share price is very under valued currently, and will multi-bag over next couple of years.
So, your property timing, imo, is very unfortunate.
Why not rent, for a time? Much as it is against my better judgement, i sold my property in June (had to due to relationship split), and I am currently renting, for a year or so.
Waiving of stamp duty is temporary and is also propping up the market.
If you must purchase, why not borrow against your shares? I've no idea how many you have, but brokers will be able to introduce you to some-one who can advance against your shares.
Just some thoughts, for you.
Good morning,
That feels about right Blantyreboy. I'm sticking with 15th December.
I'll need to sell around 1/3 or my shares then. Tell you what..I feel like a dog with a bone with these shares. I hate the thought of selling but at least the rest can sit forever.
They normally issue their report circa 15th December I believe.
GLA
GGP have said Q4 and SB in his latest interview said Dec....so my money is on Dec for MRE
Why not buy a house as they will drop and ggp
Will be at its hight is you time it right
It'll be when it is....
and I hope all the LTH (and no doubt the traders) will be happy!
House purchases seems to be the order of the day re liquidation lately with some high value holders, the other day it was the CEO of AVCT and his 33% disposal all explained in the RNS !, 'The proceeds of the Sale will be used to part-fund the purchase of a primary residence for Dr. Smith and his family' other PI's in GGP, and most recently a large PI in EUA quoting the same on ADVFN, (not that it is any business of mine ! )
Just find it intriguing that one needs to mention the Sale will be used to part-fund the purchase of a primary residence etc,
Good luck to you all. :O)
Is the property market so buyoant at the moment?
Thanks mate. We were typing at the same time there! Why do I keep seeing 15th December in my mind?
Last year the AGM was on 3rd December. I'm not sure if it has to be within a set period of time plus or minus the previous year but 3rd December 2020 would seem much to early if the MRE is going to be announced in the same month.
Although the last 2 AGM results were on 3rd and 4th December (Tuesday)
Congrats on finding a new ‘home’
GL
Hi Chippy. That would make great sense.
In time for the AGM?
I'm doing some calcs on liquidising a portion of my holding to facilitate a house purchase. NCM has indicated a December announcement for this crucial pivotal point. I'm trying to guess when the latest date would be for that announcement. Surely it wouldn't be anywhere between Christmas and the New Year when markets are limited. Neither would it be likely to be later than 20th December when the silly season starts? Undoubtedly, the CEO's will get interviewed afterwards so I am guessing mid December latest. Thoughts?