Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Try Rio or even the Chinese - both have been linked to NCM takeovers so if that doesn't work, what better than scuppering NCM current ventures??
have a look at the Red Chris acquisition......this is how it all works mate.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/08/15/1902850/0/en/Imperial-Closes-Sale-of-a-70-Interest-in-Red-Chris.html
Cheers
CB
Mate,
You are confusing an INTERNAL FS work with an external FFS. Of course any company will do internal work on all aspects of a project...but we are not talking PFS and FFS in terms of bankable. Have a squiz of the notes to page 1.
1 Stage 1 of the Cadia Expansion Feasibility Study has been prepared with the objective that its findings are subject to an accuracy range of ±15%. Stage 2 has been completed to a Pre-Feasibility Study level with its findings at an accuracy range of ±25%. The findings in the Study and the implementation of the Cadia Expansion Project are subject to all necessary approvals, permits, internal and regulatory requirements and further works. The estimates are indicative only and are subject to market and operating conditions. They should not be construed as guidance.
Newcrest don't do FFSs? See here; https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191015/pdf/449hjpy5l1ngdy.pdf
Newcrest is responsible to a whole different class of investor to those here. Those shareholders want to see why $X is spent on Project Y and the management at Newcrest are career bureaucrats keen to kee their jobs and hopefully work their way up the corporate ladder. Thier aim is not to be the heo and not to be a zero either. Beancounters, cautious, everything in order with "t's" crossed & "i's" dotted.
We'll see!
Who else is going to sneak in? Give me one name?
Appreciate your view Timid by why is it fanciful that NCM will take enough evidence from the successful drills already plus a few more and then decide to maximise the resource available just incase anyone else sneaks in with an offer? I don't see that they will necessarily wait to the bitter end before committing??
Spot on Chart , no quibble mate.
Tend to agree CB, but what price per oz?! $100, $200 or $300? That is the big question.....
Mate
NCM don't do PFS/FFS's........NCM has a mkt cap of $25B and is self funding.
NCM will buy GGP for the 30% of the ounces in the ground at Hav.
Best
CB
If you're talking at the PFS/FFS stage then fair enough. A lot of people here expecting a t/o offer from NCM in 2020 before drilling is finished. That seems fanciful to me. But by the end of 2021 I guess NCM and GGP will have a good idea what the additional 5% is worth and that sets the pricing parameters for a takeout. But that is a timeline that takes us into 2022 IMHO.
reputational sorry
mate how is it repetitional damage to own 100% of the deposit that feeds you enormous Telfer operation?
most junior exploration companies dream of getting taken over by the likes of Newcrest.
that's how the whole industry works.
Best
CB
What about the reputational damage CB? Newcrest is doing deals all over the world with junior exploration companies. That strategy would dry up. In the meantime RIO has allocated $25m for deals with some of those same JECs. I'm sure that's not $25m for the life of any particular JV. Oz Minerals also has that strategy. "Cutting off your nose to spite you face" comes to mind.
Anyway, good to see varied opinions. Nothing worse than being in a bubble.
Hi Fellas
No way NCM will want to 70% account for production at Telfer when for bugger all (for them) they can have 100% and all the rest they can keep or flog off.
Be in no doubt.
Best
CB
Agree Kevin, more likely they would use the option on the 5% at the point they are interested in a JV foothold on another GGP licence. Ie buy the 5% at Hav fair mkt value and discounted for costs of drilling at another licence. Less cash to fork out.
I agree, Newcrest will only buy a %, not a take over. GGP & Newcrest, are a match made in heaven. Many more deals between them, both run by good management, not aggressive.
Why do people keep talking about a potential buy-out by Newcrest?? They already have a guaranteed 70% farm-in interest in Haveiron at no additional cost over and above their 4 stage investment commitments to drill. Beyond that they must pay fair value, but unless they want our other licences, they don’t need to buy GGP. That said, as they drill and discover, our 30% becomes many times more valuable!!!
You didnt miss it, I did! Apologies.
There is no standstill agreement with NC. I asked GH at the agm.
Mickey,he will be if we get 3p before Xmas !!:)
JK your a legend ! Huge Buy
Jk. Good summary. I am not sure current liquidity should put off instos. Beetham bought that amount by being patient. If the instos buy it would automatically improve liquidity too. If there isn’t the liquidity, you probably will have a nice profit instead.
If an insto saw a multi bagger, would they pass it up due to illiquidity?
Well thiers value to be had here I agree but your assumptions on Solgold will be proved wrong imho
....(unfortunately) and I think they will place a low ball target on the rest of our licences. Knowing GH will bite. Greatland will never mine gold itself but it will create sol gold like returns, in the very near future. All the best, will return to checking paddy’s SATs every 5 days and ignore the noise, just like our CEO. See you again at 2.5/3. BUY.
More likely from 10-20m in my view, suspect closer to 20m, but somewhere in this range.
1m = 1p on the SP is a (very crude) but very useful indicator. 100m step outs add significantly to our foot print.
Next up, sol gold comparisons. Sol were in the right place at the right time, I wouldn’t touch that jurisdiction with a barge pole but it shows what can be achieved at the right time. Q1 2020 will be the right time for GGP in my view.
Until then, hold and ignore the noise. It’ll pop any day to sit around the 2.5-3 range, then all the loonies will come out telling you it’s going to hell in a handcart. Hold again, delete your bookmark to lse if you have to. This is a vastly undervalued stock. Crucially it is derisked. To repeat: The CEO has told you they could put a resource estimate on this now.
Do you think Clive Latcham could not negotiate a £60m take over for Hav if NC walked? Hint: he could.... but that won’t happy as NW have a very good deal and won’t let this go (again the CEO said this at the AGM, I was there and heard him ‘of course they could walk away, but they wont’.
Then ask yourself, ok, worst case? NC walk, is Hav worthless? Answer? No, they could put a figure on what they have and sell it (again, Rio?).... but again, telfer needs feed. NC need gold. GGP have gold and are 45km away. It’s like me needing a bottle of water at a concert when it’s 90 degrees. You and I know I’ll pay the £3 per bottle... I need the water and I can’t get it from anyway as close as this... crude comparison but exactly what we have here (again, 6 rigs and more in January... if this doesn’t back up the water analogy for you, nothing will).
In summary, for a stock with potential to 10 bag at any time and a backstop which says: we have a resource estimate already... it would be viable for NC even if it came in at the numis estimate. Worst case you are looking to x2 bag.
Risk reward ratios do not come around like this very often.
As I say, keep an eye on paddy’s sat images. The fact the CEO of your company follows him on twitter tells you all you need to know.
Some other questions I won’t delve into but may stimulate some discussion:
- everyone assumes the Patterson is full of Hav type targets (without realising just how big this is)... what do Newcrest need to see to buy a stake?
- What do IIs need to see to buy a stake (the whole we must get off aim argument doesn’t hold water, despite what those wanting in lower would like you to think...) the ceo said so...
- What do those HNW buying at 1.75 make of this? My view is many want more... still no RNS from Beetham so he is not reporting (tut tut) or he is still buying....
- The camp at Hav is at 3.0 (the third upgrade), they are drilling through summer... at some point the camp will get very ‘leaky’ as it grows in headcount. Human nature.
- In summary, Newcrest will buy GGP outright, I think this will be before we get a result out of scally/black hills (unfortunately) and I think
Long time reader, first time poster. First off, many thanks to paddy for some truly innovative research. It’s not often one sees public satellite imagery being put to better use than the company it is tracking. Bravo and thank you.
For what it’s worth, have been a follower of GGP for the best part of 6/7 years. Buys from 1p through to 1.9p. It astounds me the lack of interest in this stock at present. Every, and I mean every, indicator is positive.
For me there are a few unanswered questions:
who is selling in this market? Someone is. Many PIs have taken their positions in my view and will simply wait it out. There are many desperate to get in 10/15% lower (and therefore spread subtle messages in an attempt to sow some doubt, you know who you are...) nothing wrong with that, but those will be burnt one day soon when Greatland does start to move and you won’t seem them on a BB again (not least greatland’s) so take it with a pinch of salt. A large one. Greatland should not be below the recent raise at 1.75p... it should not be below 52 week highs.
For me fair value is around the (original) numis target of 4p at present. Sitting in a possible tier 1 in a friendly jurisdiction with gold looking primed to take advantage if any market instability in 2020+
Back to my questions:
What do Newcrest need to see to take a stake? Do they need to or are they happy to take 5% at market value?
They are clearly releasing far less data than they have (a point noted by GH when he said we need to stick to NC’s timetable going forward)... that means end January is the next we will hear on drill results. Greatland would like them to release more. They won’t budge. It’s obviously in their interest to keep data back.
If you are Newcrest (bare in mind our rig count will rival cadia’s in the new year)... ask yourself, if I think this is a good play, shall I take 5% now on the market?
That would cost...c.£3m... vs pay for 5% once it’s proved up... possibly as much as ten times what it would cost in today’s money. Would buying £3m move the dial? You bet. C190,000,000 shares... on the open market? Simply not liquid enough.
So what are they thinking? Accelerate the programme and hope that market value is lower than it deserves to be when they take the 5%? Of course not.
They are waiting to strike. Clive Latcham gets honourable mention every single annual report. It’s not often a back roomer is celebrated. Ask yourself what he is offering ggp... he is ex Rio. Rio like the Patterson. We don’t see his value but GH clearly does. GH being exasperated by the SP tells you he knows he’s into a good thing. CL will be all over the numbers. The comparison in the (paid for by ggp) report demonstrates the exec team’s thinking and their valuations. They think this is big and I suspect are thinking of a £1bn company (as a high water mark).
They know ggp is minimum 3/4m (they could define a resource est now, and they would if NW was not running the show).