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In 12 months when POG is $2,500/oz and all these high priority targets come up trumps ?
What are NCM going to do about the above conundrum ?
What price now ? and what price July 2021 ?
What would you recommend to the BOD at the next board meeting if you were CEO of NCM ?
How long do you think it will take to start seeing results from SW? I think we could see initial findings at the same time as the MRE. That might be the key equation: if SW is good then either a new farm in might be needed, but if it fails they might just pay for H remaining %.
Think you may be right there. Expect SW results in 12 weeks (worst case), which overlaps next 2 sets of drill results. The next drill results may be sufficient to establish a conservative estimate, but i am moving towards end of the year to be honest
San
Thanks Tom - my estimation for MRE is around Sept, so it would be nice to start getting early SW indications by then. Prob a bit optimistic but not far off. Cheers
Not wanting to cool the excitement too much, but let's just remember that the market as of right now is putting a value on Hav of 11-12p / share. If one of these targets turns up another Havieron and it gets to the same point we are at with Hav (Farm in, extensive drilling), the market would probably value it at 12p, once it gets to that point. Maybe Hav will be valued more highly by then.
If you are looking for a really high SP out of this, it's going to take a LOT of time.
But mate we will only own 30% of Hav . We own 100% of all the other plays. Do the maths .
Someone always as to pxxs on the parade why not let everyone have their 5 mins of pleasure.
TMT I do agree with you that talks of £1 are very much ambitious targets for the long term (certainly not unfeasible) and some people are in here for the long term that is for sure. It's good to keep grounded in terms near term SP as you say and definitely the market is only valuing this company based on Havieron, quite rightly.
However, I would counteract your lot of time comment with 2 variables in that valuation of Hav that have significant near term upside potential (depending how you define near term but I will say <12m) :
1. The size of the resource - as more drilling data comes out, the signs point to it being a 10m oz plus resource. With an MRE due H2 of 2020 there is a good chance this will revalue Hav way over 11p.
2. The price of gold - Looking likely to rise significantly. The numbers that the 11p valuation of Hav are based on I feel use a POG estimate that is on the low side, coupled with an AISC that will reduce significantly if we block cave.
Add to that if any of our newly announced near term drilling of scally drill hits something of any comparison to Hav there will have to be some value attributed for that.
Definitely need to be realistic with price targets but this does have some material short term upside potential.
The market is not understanding how big haveiron is so 12 p is very very conservative. We may already have a 2nd system being hit 800 mtrs north of hole 66 which was a 220 mtr step out from the main horseshoe zone. Until we get more data then I think the market is too scared to believe it’s a monster.
Fair value is not 12 p imho.
Spot on TMT - patience required.
You only need to look at Hav and time from our first drill to where we are now - when we start drilling it's not going to add huge value overnight.
Still, terrific news and on we march
Gold price on the up today, the ducks keep lining up...
GLA FC
@jdt "TMT I do agree with you that talks of £1 are very much ambitious targets for the long term (certainly not unfeasible) and some people are in here for the long term that is for sure."
Precisely. Or, indeed £2!
As to your other points, I fully agree. I'm persuaded Hav is undervalued by the market, both because people aren't really paying attention to how big it is and because (IMO) they are ignoring the Cu and its impact on the AISC. I think the market is expecting a somewhat normal AISC of $800-1000, and I think it will be way, way lower than that.
I think Hav SHOULD be valued at close to 20p / share, right now, and if the drilling keeps bringing back magic results, that will go up. But it takes the market a long time for the SP to catch up to these things, and with new finds in Scal, perhaps even longer, since there's no guarantee NCM will be ramping those.
If you are waiting for £1 (or £2!!!), that's only going to come if Hav keeps on giving and giving and giving. Scallywag, and this new tenement, are not going to be major drivers of the SP for quite a while. That's not how the SP on gold explorers works -- IIs aren't going to buy without compelling evidence of real resources.