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According to my notes, the receivables agreement runs to July 2022.
I have downgrade my expectations of G so many times, Tartine, that 350 is now beyond my target.
Good play by France on Saturday btw - a deserved win.
Hi Boyo,
You don't think that if the new Chevron fields come good and Bina is monetised (one way or another), we would push towards £3/£3.50? Personnally, I do. I am not sure it will happen but if it does I think the price will go above £3.00.
Sadly, nobody knows. One point, that is very true in your post is "limited window of opportunity" .... every 12 months, a year passes and we are kind of standing still so far. Once we revert to normal payments (at the end of Rsa agreement) then this wont be the same company if the portfolio is not aggressively extended. In that case, I agree Genel SP might struggle to stay at current level.
Do you guys remember when the agreement finishes?
I tend to agree that it's relatively safe Hydrogen because I think that oil is artificially under-priced currently because of overproduction of an ultimately limited resource. But in terms of 2x or more for G from here (360p) - which I presume JL was referring to as a 'bagger' in the first post of this thread - I agree with him: it isn't likely to happen soon and it may not happen within G's quite limited window of opportunity. It's a game of chicken as far as I can see.
Leem made a poignant comment yesterday: ‘I still don’t know what constitutes a breakout here.’
Ordinarily it’s simple enough - an sp pushing up past a key resistance or trend to the next level. The problem with G is that it has effectively been in retreat for eighteen months, so any immediate breakout that happens below 230 is simply reclaiming ground that has recently been lost and doesn’t represent a significant advance. The nearest thing we’ve seen to a breakout recently was the short lived October/November push past 210. Anyone buying on that signal must have been mightily disappointed.
Today I imagine that some people would rate a price over 200p as something of a breakout, yet it’s well short of the 230 breakout we were looking for a year ago.
https://invst.ly/pxi8h
im not entirely surprised by an exaggerated drop today following yesterday , to put it in to context the largest trade today is 10k (Volume), way less than the buying yesterday. Feels like a bit of an attempt to shake out yesterdays buyers on the back of weaker o.p
Bunks, I still don’t know what constitutes a breakout here. Dismal performance is so common I’ll continue to wait for news. Waiting on bina bawi, Africa, acquisitions and next steps. Only been waiting 7 years so can wait a bit longer! Bina bawi was being finalised last summer remember and I held and lost loads so not getting sucked in again yet
Well I hope you are right on things happening within a 6 months time frame.
As mentioned previously, I think any substantial increase in production will have an impact on the share price. I mean by that a new field producing as opposed to marginal increases at currently producing fields.
Some decisions on Somaliland and Morrocco would be welcomed, especially Morrocco ...
I am not really fussed by the dividend increase but since they announced it, I suspect it will happen.
It would be nice to be surprised in a good way for once.
Tartine - I generally agree with your assessment - especially 'no fireworks' - although I'm perhaps slightly more optimistic on a few points:
I think the new appointments should have an effect - if they are to have any - within six months.
On Bina Bawi preparations, I think Bill is shrewd enough to have been certain that the money was well spent. So I do expect news during Q1.
On dividend, I’m not particularly concerned and don’t necessarily expect to see an increase provided that the company is pursuing realistic and achievable growth.
Sarta must bring some upside - and should be first in terms of production boost.
Qara Dagh - seems highly speculative - I doubt that it’s priced-in to the sp.
I also think JL’s observation that: ‘.... if you think G is going to be a bagger from here you will have a protracted wait imo,’
was utterly correct.
Feel like I ought to pitch in for my mate dodger. Genel don’t like buybacks so wouldn’t expect them. Maybe assess the dividend. Expecting no fireworks as Genel management are typically staid. Also they don’t ‘save’ news just for reporting periods. If there is news (yes, miracles can happen) it could be at any time. I think going into yet another results statement with no tangible news again won’t go down well but those on here might be used to it. Bina bawi closing in and still nowt on M&A which is a bit of a let down. Numbers should be ok presumably but market should by now know what to expect and price accordingly. Will watch and see. Any asset movement and I’d be tempted to position again
I don't know about you guys but I am not really expecting any fireworks for the FY results. The new political appointment make me think they have identified/acknowledged that this was where we needed to punch a bit above our weight. I would not expect such appointment to produce anything tangible for months (years?).
I am a bit worried that they decided to actually starting spending money on Bina Bawi (preparatory work) before having anything signed. The KRG political scene is at best fickle. Their relationship with Baghdad is like a tango ... one step forward, two back...
Sarta/Qara Dagh might be the one that brings some upside.
I expect Tawke and Taqtaq to keep going as before, managed decline for Tawke, steady or slightly up for Peshkabir and TT.
What is your view guys? Where do you think we might see real upside first?
What about the dividend? They said it will increase ...where do you think it will be?
Over to you, guys ...
GLA
Tartine.
So are you feeling lucky?
I appreciated JL’s first post in this thread today - a good piece especially for those of us who might dismiss some of the points too readily.
Yesterday Cashless suggested, on the basis of my ‘depressing’ posts that I’m a de-ramper. He has a point - I’m not given to being particularly optimistic.
Today there is no doubt that the sp has surged - nearly hitting 185 before dropping back to just under 182 - last five days here: https://invst.ly/px67s
Actually Hawkey it was a good day if you compare us to RDS or Chevron - the GvOP ratio shifted up a bit too.
So, with my ill-fitting optimistic hat and rose tinted specs on, what is the best I think we can expect? Well, as I’ve said previously, the March statement seems to historically mark an annual high point, if not the start of a more sustained rally. Let’s assume the model is this: a rapid rise from today towards March 16th (the day prior to results). How rapid is rapid? Well October/November gave us a real example so let’s apply it from today, the red parallel lines:
https://invst.ly/px6b9
As you can see, by March 16th (the day before results) 220p would be possible but quite a challenge. Of course, the sp might rocket faster - this is Mr Negativity speaking. Alternatively….. anything over 200 would be good in my view, with 210 quite exceptional
When looking to buy a share in a company ...You either invest in biggest dividends paying solid company that is growing at a pace to afford safely the growing dividends you expect .
But if you are looking at short term gains in SP without dividends or very small one and probably laden with debts then buy risky shares and take the plunge.. but no parachute ! But you need to have years of experience in the market before you do this and not a good strategy if you have a pacemaker attached to your heart either.
You simply cannot have both in one share investment....simply it’s not there..
G..is the share you can bed with in peace ..
We're already at the full day volume for yesterday but gkp at the same volume today, slightly higher than G. Nothing to see here ...... yet
Not me bunks. Yes on breakout but also some news on next steps. I’m probably wrong but I would expect to see an increase in volume and price prior to any good news- usually the market knows things before we do
Leem - you still in dead cat mode or breakout?
for those not keeping up with Feb Leem watch:
-I’d be happier buying back into this on a confirmed breakout
that 09:47 buy @180p for £135k was quite timely - Leem getting back in on that 'breakout' I suspect
Up 5.80p at 183.60p in volume of 409k share.
Who knows? Perhaps yesterday was the moment to buy!
How to explain the bounteous basket of goodies overflowing with H and Hasiba's reasons to be...with the DGAF attitude of an ungrateful mrkt? How indeed!
I was always led to view mrkt downturns, '87 '92 '20 & '08 etc as buying opportunities. Of course G wasn't in existence back then but had it's own huge write off (opportunity) plunging the shares to sub 60 a few years back. That was a golden chance for the long term pis who figured the fall was for reasons other than fundamentals of the business which looked to be improving if you were strong enough to overlook the payment issues. Many did, H & self for sure.
The only losers were the 'disinvestors' who panicked and sold out, they were selling $bills for 10 cents! Did not the Mayor pick up a few of those cheap $ bills?
None of the above explains the sp malaise. The whims of the mrkts are unfathomable, shares of excellent companies sink as irrational mrkt claws get attached to businesses that shouldn't be tarred by the same brush....but are. Is this what is happening at G?
Is the sector now so unloved that none can thrive as Leem1 never stops reminding us?
I remember saying G was cheap at 500, got that right eh? But cheap or expensive doesn't seem to matter anymore. The iis are more than happy to collect the 6% div without bothering much about the sp. They see a wide margin of safety as a good enough reason to hold.
As G trades more and more like a property Co huge discount to NAV good % yield on divs perhaps we should adjust our thinking along those lines, ie collect the income forget capital appreciation.
Tbh if you think G is going to be a bagger from here you will have a protracted wait imo, unless some kind soul takes pity on y'all and makes an offer you can't refuse....and how long have you been saying that? Is it not strange that there has not been an amalgamation of the Kurd o....lies? Would not the sum of all be better than one? I think that's a lost opportunity but no doubt our paymaster prefers to play us off agin each other than deal with one very strong company and has kiboshed that idea.
Politics, the sector the region the poor sentiment and the 'greens' all conspire against G.
Be thankful your getting paid a very good return (tried premium bonds lately?) to suffer Mr Markets miserable moods.