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Started: Bismarck, 17 Dec 2023 14:08
Last post: Bismarck, 17 Dec 2023 14:08
Started: Bismarck, 21 Oct 2023 12:42
Last post: Bismarck, 21 Oct 2023 12:42
NATURAL GAS NEWS Jun 2, 2023 6:15:am
Great Eastern Energy Corporation (GEECL), an Indian coalbed methane (CBM) producer, plans to invest approximately $700mn over the next few years to increase gas output at its Raniganj (South) block, CEO Prashant Modi tells NGW. “We are going ahead with an efficiency capital expenditure programme in this financial year [FY2024]. This is expected to increase gas production from the existing CBM wells. We plan to further undertake drilling of another 144 CBM wells starting next financial year,” he said. “Thereafter, subject to government approval, the company may undertake d...
https://www.naturalgasworld.com/geecl-to-invest-700mn-to-boost-cbm-output-in-india-interview-105445
Started: TroytoTiber, 4 Sep 2023 08:57
Last post: Bismarck, 19 Oct 2023 08:04
Well I hope they can pull it off. I'd be delighted if they re-listed then got taken over at anything >£1 / share
I note that the company's data has now been removed from LSE and there are no results when you insert the name in the company search box. The only way I of returning to this chat appears to be by using the direct link https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=GEEC&share=Great-Eastern
Agree that a divi is a little way off yet. The company have stated that are looking to invest around $2bn in expansion capex over the course of the next 3 to 4 years so would be a timeframe after that for any cash returns. However also book value will increase significantly also not just with the investment but also the return on this investment.
Seem to remember company saying that this year they would invest in maximising output from existing wells. Next year they plan to invest in pilot testing for shale and beginning to expand cbm well count again - suspect they would aim for around 40 to 50 new cbm wells in 2024. 2025 would then see another 50 odd cbm wells and hopefully some shale gas production towards the end of the year. All the cash generated from increased production will be needed to finance another potentially 200 new additional cbm wells and expansion of shale gas in 2026 and 2027 I suspect so maybe a small dividend in 2028 as capex requirements begin to decline and cashflow increases significantly.
I’m thinking though that GEEC has relisted by then in order to tap public markets for the scale of finance needed. Unlikely to be a UK market listing. The US is probably where they get access to a significant number of investors who are still prepared to invest in growth oil and gas plays and know how to value them. Shortly after that I’m predicting that GEEC are bought out by one of the neighbouring O&G companies producing from the Raniganj field. So we’re unlikely to ever see a dividend from GEEC as someone wil have paid £5+ for each of our shares Bismarck before the company get around to paying them.
Been doing some sums based on Stocko numbers which should still be relevant up to delisting date, but will not have been updated.
Book value $85m
Book value PS $0.714 (or about 57p)
Wouldn't be unreasonable to expect a divi of 3 to 4% of current book value eventually so about 2p/share. Of course if they grow to become a major shale producer you'd expect to have to wait longer for it, but could be a lot more when it does arrive. Keep fingers crossed...
Agreed. Only upside of attending would be to take advantage of any opportunity to put some questions to the board about the development timeline, funding requirements and how they meet them and how pipeline construction progress is opening up new markets for sales (and where are those sales).
Next year!
No I missed it Troy, although from reading the transcript I doubt we missed much.
Started: Bismarck, 8 Jul 2023 23:59
Last post: Bismarck, 8 Jul 2023 23:59
Due to be released this week based on timing for past 2 years....
Started: TroytoTiber, 3 May 2023 11:06
Last post: TroytoTiber, 3 May 2023 11:06
Link here to short article highlighting increased investment from Essar in raniganj CBM.
Also alludes to test drilling for shale soon which will share drill rig with geec I’m sure. Positive at the
margin
https://www.projectstoday.com/News/Essar-to-invest-Rs-2000-cr-in-brownfield-CBM-project
Started: Bismarck, 22 Mar 2023 20:41
Last post: TroytoTiber, 21 Apr 2023 16:48
Thanks Bismarck. I’ve taken the liberty of setting up the new topic ‘Great Eastern Energy Corporation’ to get us started. Look forward to further discussion in the months ahead.
Have a great weekend
Just a reminder this chat board will almost certainly be removed after delisting so I've reposted my previous suggestion below -
There is another board on this site we can use https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/
It only sees a couple of new threads a month so we can start one called GEEC and just reply to it.
Yes, I'll let you know if I do get a response. Does anyone know any brokers that deal with OTC, my thought is to buy mine out of my SIPP. I'd do this before the deadline so they end up in a dealing account but I'd like to get a broker who will be able to handle the delisted shares.
I haven’t tried Jonhas. My experience to date in contacting the company through their investor relations email link was almost zero response over many years. Definitely worth perseverance though. Good to hear if you get a response and what the company are advising shareholders to do right now.
Has anyone tried and had any luck with the email address provided in the RNS which is supposed to provide further information?
Last post: Bismarck, 17 Apr 2023 11:32
With SP currently sitting at around 6% of book price I'll take my chances delisted. My hope being that they'll eventually (hopefully within 5 years) pay a decent divi, in which case I'll just hold onto them indefinitely.
Thanks for sharing Fieldwolf. I hadn’t seen anything on IB and ability to trade over the counter. Worth checking on that as good to know what OTC options investors have.
5 trading days left before geec delists and volumes have been very subdued. The deeply discounted share price encouraging investors to take their chances with the move to private market?
Message from my broker (ii - interactive investor) is:
******
As the shares will no longer be trading on a supported stock exchange you may choose to sell your holding prior to our
last day of trading listed above or transfer your holding to another broker.
If you do not wish to sell or transfer, following the delisting we will endeavour to provide you with a share certificate in
relation to your holding, should one be issued by the company in the future.
*****
In that case it doesn't sound so bad. You could keep them within a SIPP but just certificated and not tradeable?
My theory being that at some point in the future (perhaps several years) they will be listed on a recognised exchange again and so tradeable? On a long term basis that could work out. If not, you'd need to organise a transfer to another SIPP where they could be held and traded.
Did somebody mention that interactive brokers (IB) are able to trade OTC stocks? I have a 2nd SIPP with them so perhaps that is a better option where I'd also be able to trade.
Started: TroytoTiber, 1 Apr 2023 19:08
Last post: Bismarck, 3 Apr 2023 13:59
I thought the RNS was encouraging in that they seem to be emphasising that nothing will change other than the shares will no longer be traded on an exchange. They have said the reason for the delisting is that the level of trading does not justify the ongoing cost of remaining listed. If this really is the only reason and everything else continues as normal then there are some bargain 5p shares to be had.
Interesting to read the rns this morning. Couple of things stood out. 1) mention of dividend distributions. (Won’t be on the cards for a little while and probably just standard wording for this kind of announcement - nice to see though). 2) company will continue to publish interim and finals accounts on its website. (So no real change to info that we were receiving while listed). 3) at this point at least no restructure of class of shareholdings.
I’ll get around to emailing the company for info on pinksheets and trading of unlisted stock and will share here whatever comes back.
Thanks for the info Troy
I've just read up on the difference between pinksheets and OTCBB https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pinksheets.asp
I agree, it does appear that OTCBB would be easier to trade. My guess (and it's only a guess) is that it may be pinksheets only, otherwise HL would have known and informed you it was both, and what reason would GEEC have to choose both rather than one or the other?
Have you emailed GEEC to request further clarification?
Sharing what i received from more broker.
"Thank you for your enquiry and please accept my apologies for the delayed response.
As a result of the delisting from the LSE, which is due to be effective from April 2023, Great Eastern Energy Corp will move to the pink sheet segment of the over the counter (OTC) Market in the US. This market has very few listing standards and little regulation – unfortunately you are unable to trade on this market via Hargreaves Lansdown.
You will still be able to hold your shares in your SIPP.
I can confirm you will receive communication regarding the delisting shortly."
I'm still not clear whether this will mean GEEC share trade Pinksheets OTC only or whether this will be OTCBB. OTCBB appears to be more liquid and requires companies listing here to post annual report and accounts with the regulator. Reading around on OTCBB it might be that liquidity doesn't completely dry up for GEEC and companies do also raise equity via OTCBB - so i guess this angle is still open to GEEC (albeit unlikely i suspect to be how GEEC raises finance for expansion). The list of broker dealers active on OTCBB is quite extensive and can be found here https://www.otcmarkets.com/market-activity/broker-dealer-data
Hoping that GEEC will clear up some of the uncertainty in the coming days. Given it was very hard to trade in any size with an LSE listing it looks as though there could still be some price discovery and traded volumes via the OTC route!
Started: Bismarck, 31 Mar 2023 12:39
Last post: Bismarck, 31 Mar 2023 12:39
From Stocko I can now only see that 0.41% are owned by Silvercrest Asset Management with 99.59% owned by others. Not sure how up to date that is.
The last RNS concerning share dealing was in Nov 20 and states the following -
"Mr. Yogendra Kr. Modi, Executive Chairman, and Mr. Prashant Modi, Managing Director & CEO, purchased through YKM Holdings International Ltd., 1,200,000 GDRs on 12 November 2020 at a price of 7.55p each in the Company (1 GDR represents 0.5 underlying ordinary share of INR 10 each). Following this purchase, they have a beneficial interest of 64.90% in the Company."
So any further director deals, or significant changes in ownership resulting in thresholds being crossed would be notifiable by RNS. None have been released since.
So who owns the other 35% and why are so few changing hands? Surely not all owned by PI's
Started: Bismarck, 28 Mar 2023 21:44
Last post: Bismarck, 29 Mar 2023 15:30
I think if it were a UK based company I might snap up a few more to average down, but given that they are half way around the globe and will be subject to less regulation once delisted I think I'll just keep my present holding, moved to a dealing account.
The shares are currently at about 8% of book value. Moving forward I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect an annual divi of 4% of today's book value in the not too distant future, which is currently half the Mcap!
I just wish I was starting from a clean sheet.
Thanks for the L2 info Bismarck. I’ve been surprised that not only is there little selling but also some decent buying. I guess the view is that at current levels the risk reward is still attractive to some investors even with the delisting.
Regarding management buying I would how that there are rules in place to prevent company directors creating a false market by announcing a delisting and then buying up the distressed stock at knock down prices. There are definitely ways they can shaft minority holders once the company is private but I don’t think they can buy shares now before delisting. I might be wrong though.
If I was on boards of Essar or ONGC, as operators of neighbouring licences on the raniganj block, I think I would be buying GEEC shares here before delisting. Taking away public market finance means that geec has to be looking at the farm in option to fund expansion and Essar and ONGC are prime candidates for this given synergies . Why not try and hoover up some cheap stock now to get the average down. They could even collect enough of a holding to be an influential investor. Even if they don’t I suspect one of them stills buys GEEC once the shale reserves are proved up and pipeline to Kolkata is operational. I too have some shares in a SIPP so receiving take over cash for geec shares in the SIPP would solve some issues.
I subscribed to L2 and past few days whenever I've looked there have been buying opportunities at around 5 and selling opportunities at 4.5. I would have expected some people to be cutting their losses and selling and others to be buying/selling to move out of SIPPs and into dealing accounts. I cannot imagine much is going to happen to move the SP much between now and D Day, unless people expect a flurry of buying by the BOD to snap up cheap shares at the last minute?
Started: jonhas, 24 Mar 2023 10:43
Last post: Bismarck, 24 Mar 2023 11:26
I think many of us have them in SIPPs. My concern is that whenever there is a BCE https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/pensions-tax-manual/ptm088100 I'll be charged an extortionate fee for valuing the delisted shares.
My plan is to move them to my wife's dealing account as she's a basic rate taxpayer. It's an AJB account so not set up for delisted shares but at least I can keep them there without worrying about valuation costs.
The only way I can see of doing it is to fund the dealing account with the necessary funds then buy/sell is bitesize chunks thereby creating my own liquidity as you do it.
I believe its fairly certain that the delisting is a cynical ploy to effectively dupe the small PIs, prior to positive news-flow which would send the SP significantly northwards. The much awaited pipeline is any time now and with that now in sight, clearly its time to significantly raise production - no point doing it previously as there would probably have been selling the increased quantity.
So what can us small PIs do about this? Well I'd like to hold on but there are hurdles to consider.
1. I need to get it out of my SIPP. I have a plan on how I can do this - anyone else in this position?
2. I'd like to get the shares into an account that is perhaps geared for this delisted share - anyone have any suggestions?
3. I'd like to obtain a share certificate but I think GEEC will not facilitate this?
4. I'd like to understand how many of us are in the same situation - and how many shares are we talking about? I have a 180,000 GDRs.
So who else is out there?
Last post: bankrupty, 23 Mar 2023 12:00
Withdrawals by Lump sums are also known as "uncrystallised funds pension lump sums" ( UFPLS). "uncrystalised" is the key word here!
I think AJB has a good explanation and the positives and negatives of each option. It is probably best to read up on those explanations which are given in your SIPP a/c.....I think you "Access my Pension" within your portal to get to this page which summarises and then gives you the option to access fuller information on a link for each of the following sections:-
Your options
Tax-free lump sum and drawdown
Receive a tax-free lump sum (usually 25%) from all or some of your SIPP. You also have the choice of taking taxable income either in one-off or regular payments. Read more on drawdown
Withdraw all
Take your entire pension as a lump sum (usually 25% is tax-free, and the rest taxed as income) and close your SIPP. Read more on withdrawing your pension
Pension lump sum (UFPLS)
Take a lump sum from your pension, with 25% tax-free and 75% taxed as income. The rest of your pension remains invested in your SIPP. Read more on pension lump sums
Annuity
Receive a tax-free lump sum, and buy a guaranteed lifetime income (annuity) from an insurance company with the rest of your money. Read more on annuities
I guess I/we could approach a licensed financial adviser if we were willing to pay for advice!
My understanding is that for every £25 (uncrystallised) TFLS you take, £75 of the remaining fund is crystallised. I would have thought that's a crystallising event, but maybe if the value of listed shares and cash exceeds the value of TFLS plus the part you're crystallising then they don't need to bother to value the delisted stuff. I don't know to be honest. Have you already taken any TFLS while there are delisted shares in your SIPP and if so how was it dealt with?
I agree with what you say Bismark..........the point I was making I think (in retrospect) is that I'm trying to remain taking uncrystallised funds pension lump sums or UFPLS and not meeting a crystalising event until age 75yrs.
I hope I've read this right........happy to be, indeed need to be corrected if I'm got this wrong!
I think the point is, regardless of whether you're approaching LTA or not, you need to get a valuation of your fund at any crystalising event. If your platform is incapable of doing so because it's too complicated they will employ another company to do it, and pass on the cost....
Ah... I missed that......LTAs.....I've purposely kept below the LTA.(avoid hassle) so I've got a bit more flex!
AJB says on SIPP Withdrawals:-
" Lump sums are also known as uncrystallised funds pension lump sums or UFPLS.
Am I eligible to take a lump sum/UFPLS from my pension?
You can take an UFPLS from any part of your pension fund that you have not already put into drawdown unless you have no remaining lifetime allowance or hold certain forms of protection. "
That's what I was talking about and what I do...from time to time......to be fair I really only do it as an exercise to check it works and then plow back the £2,880 net to get the £3,600 gross re-investment.
I have paid enough income tax in my life and avoid that today! GLA
Started: Bismarck, 23 Mar 2023 11:10
Last post: Bismarck, 23 Mar 2023 11:10
For those who are continuing to hold in the hope of future dividends, the following may be of interest -
https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/double-taxation-relief/dt9552
As I understand the treaty, 10% withholding tax will be applied to dividends from shares, unless they are held within a pension, in which case there is no withholding tax.
Started: Bismarck, 21 Mar 2023 17:38
Last post: TroytoTiber, 22 Mar 2023 18:02
Lots to figure here, but i suspect that you are right Bismarck that to sell OTC, shares will need to be transferred out of a SIPP to a non SIPP broker account that can execute OTC. Once the trade is complete then there should be no problems returning cash proceeds to a SIPP with existing SIPP providers.
I couldnt find an ISA account that would accept GEEC shares so i have some in a fund and share account and some in a SIPP.
For the share certificate issuance, i think that if you pay £25 or whatever the fee is to have the shares registered in hard copy you will receive your own share certificate with your own holding and not a certificate representing the whole holding of the broker. My understanding is that the shares will no longer then be shown as a zero priced asset in your account and the only record that you will have of ownership is the certificate. I suspect that the broker will also update the company with owners details and total share holding so that the new registration is updated on the company records as well.
Interesting to see what looks like quite a large purchase of stock in GEEC today. I guess there are some investors who are comfortable with private markets and OTC trading and see GEEC at this price as a favourable risk/reward.
Thanks both for the updates. A couple of things have crossed my mind.
I've read that you cannot hold delisted shares in an ISA. Presently I'm not but I'll remember not to buy or transfer any there.
Mine are in my SIPP but I'm wondering how I would transfer them out of the SIPP if AJB or Interactive will not do OTC trades (same as Halifax)? My guess is that I'd need to open up a new SIPP with a broker who will OTC and do an "in specie" transfer to them. Presumably I cannot just transfer from SIPP to a non-SIPP broker account, or can I do that and the money goes back to the SIPP?
IMO you should note that an investment in e.g. GEEC through e.g. AJB or any other platform provider (whether in a SIPP wrapper or not)........you are not the legal owner and therefore any "share certificate" will be in the name of your nominee...e.g. AJB. Their share certificate will be in their name and be for their total shareholding (in other words for the sum of all their customer's "allocated" holdings. Therefore you will still have your allocation of "your shareholding" on your portfolio page (albeit with a £0 value) and it will only be removed if the company ceases to exist!
This is my understanding!
Thanks both for the helpful information. Halifax have responded to me and also confirm that after delisting my holding in GEEC will stay in the account with a zero value. They will forward any information from GEEC. Halifax will not be able to trade GEEC stock OTC on my behalf and so the holding would need to be transferred to an entity that can trade OTC for that to happen. Halifax stated that a share certificate can be requested for the GEEC holding but only while the shares are listed. After delisting they will not be able to issue a share certificate. They also indicate that GEEC may not issue a share certificate. cost of issuing the certificate is £25 and takes 2 to 3 weeks.
Also confirmed that it is possible to move the holding after delisting is completed (im not sure what the charge for this would be). Dividends and any return of capital would be received by Halifax after delisting and would sit within the account and be available for reinvestment (but not in GEEC obviously). They also confirmed that GEECs record of share ownership would be automatically updated with any move of holding to another stock broker after delisting.
Question fin my mind is whether to get share certificate issued now so that i have a tangible record of ownership as i doubt GEEC will issue these. Management own over 70% of the company and have demonstrated that they barely even acknowledge other shareholders - so best to assume that GEECs efforts to communicate and support minority holders through the delisting will be non-existant.
StockGREAT EASTERN ENER GDR EACH REP 0.5 ORD 'REGS'
Event TypeDe-Listing
DescriptionDelisting
Effective date: 21st April 2023
Market affected: London Stock Exchange (LSE)
Trading restrictions: The last day of trading is 21st April 2023
Great Eastern Energy Corporation Limited has announced its intention to cancel its listing of Global Depository Receipts (GDRs) from trading on 21st April 2023. This is expected to become effective on 21st April 2023 at 16:30pm.
As the shares will no longer be trading on a supported stock exchange you may choose to sell your holding prior to our last day of trading listed above or transfer your holding to another broker.
If you do not wish to sell or transfer, following the delisting we will endeavour to provide you with a share certificate in relation to your holding, should one be issued by the company in the future.
Started: Bismarck, 20 Mar 2023 18:01
Last post: Bismarck, 21 Mar 2023 17:17
It's reassuring to know that you've had no issues holding your delisted shares in an AJ Bell SIPP. That's the same platform where half of mine reside.
I actually topped up with a few at 5p today which is a discount of 52p from book value.
I did ask AJ Bell what will happen to the shares in my SIPP once delisted. They have replied but they seem to think GEEC also has a "home" US listing -
"To confirm, I have contacted the relevant team and they have investigated this delisting. As this is a GDR on the LSE and it has a home listing in the US market. We are looking into switching the Sedol from this GDR to the home listing Sedol. An event for this corporate action is currently being created and will be distributed to shareholders accordingly once we have finalised how we are going to proceed with this recent corporate action news."
I'm not sure what share they can be confusing it with. No matter, I now feel confident that I can keep them there.
I have my SIPP with AJB.....and as long as AJB did SIPPs.....perhaps 20 years or more!
Over the time I have been more than happy with a lot of my "delisted" shares.......some have been bankrupt and have returned zero, some have gone into liquidation and returned something....and a few have returned loads and loads through dividends, special dividends and asset sales!
Some brokers have also been chasing me to get me to sell...lol!
Overall I am quite happy.....not sure if I've made a profit or loss overall.....but I still do not let "delisting" put me off....especially when the SP bears little connection with the NAV...........I don't tend to invest more than £1,000.....and I did buy in here yesterday!
Happy to sell on a spike or hold for long term! GLA.
The recent SP certainly has been completely disconnected from the asset value. Based on Stocko's numbers book value is currently 57p/share. Even with a 50% discount applied that's still significantly higher than where we have been for many months. With the planned move into shale you'd certainly expect the long term book value per share to increase, even after factoring in dilution. If the company succeeds in this then within 3 to 5 years I'd expect a divi of at least 5% of book price PS, hopefully a fair bit more.
No word from my SIPP and fund and share account providers either. Will post anything here if I receive it. Thanks for the info Bismarck.
Some final thoughts more generally on the situation here.
I see the delisting as a sign of progress towards expanding production and significant uplift in company profitability. The very low share price was acting as an unhelpful reference point for raising further equity. A farm in from industry and possibly investment from a private equity specialist in this sector along with debt will finance initial expansion until free cashflow can finance the rest.
There is certainly dilution for existing equity holders to come but we pretty much knew this anyway. By getting rid of a public market share price that is completely disconnected from the underlying value of the asset, the dilution should be less. Rationale being that any new equity is priced on the economics of the underlying asset, which an industry investor will be well placed to assess.
So as I see it geec will drill a couple of shale gas test wells soon after delisting and if found to be economic will begin to negotiate funding for expansion of drilling across the field.
I think that we have to assume significant dilution for existing shareholders. However if we assume £300m of new equity and £200m of new debt then that should be enough new money to get to self funded growth capex. £300m of new equity issued after successfully proving commercial shale gas could be priced at 50p a share meaning 600m new shares. If we assume that the company is worth at least what is invested then £500m to £600m is a conservative value once wells are largely drilled and operational. But this gets us to £1 per share. Factor in a 50% discount for otc trade to sell and that’s 50p a share. Right now I’d take that and count myself lucky.
Of course there are lots of variables here and these assumptions are not worst case by any means - but they’re on the more conservative side.
Good to remember that this is a voluntary delisting. The company is profitable and its end markets are a structural growth situation. We’ll get diluted and we’ll have little visibility on what’s happening and it’s still going to take years to come through.
Just thoughts from me. Everyone here will have different constraints and requirements but I plan to hang on and see if some better value comes back to shareholders than what you can get in the market at the moment.
Good luck to all. It’s a very disappointing development but some reasons still for a bit of optimism.
I've not heard back from either of my SIPP platforms yet but so far I've found the following -
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-10648215/What-happens-delisted-shares.html
"Investment platform AJ Bell confirmed it will send a message to shareholders if a company is delisted.
'This message will have a brief summary of what has happened and a link to the full statement from the company so customers are up to date with any proceedings. When we receive more information from the delisted firm, we pass this straight onto the customer, including any voting options that might be available.
'The shares will remain in the customer's portfolio online with a nil value until the delisted company comes to a final decision.'
And from Interactive Investor -
https://www.ii.co.uk/help/trading/useful-information/defunct-shares
"When a company ceases to function, its shares are delisted from the exchange they were traded on. We will notify you if any of your shares are delisted via a corporate action notification.
If the company issues share certificates because of the delisting, we will endeavour to reregister these in your name. If share certificates are not issued, or reregistration is not possible, the unlisted shares will stay on your online account."
Presumably they would be re-registered in my name as the company would not be defunct. Without a share certificate I guess it would be impossible to resell them in the future?
Started: Davemate90, 20 Mar 2023 09:04
Last post: Bismarck, 20 Mar 2023 12:57
My thoughts are that this is an almighty kick in the teeth. I'm particularly frustrated because I've topped up recently.
"The Company has decided to request the voluntary Cancellation of Listing as the volume of trading of the GDRs on the LSE is negligible and does not justify the costs related to such listing and trading."
That may be true, but had the company made more of an effort in investor relations perhaps there might have been some interest in the security? I think this is part of a different strategy.
I feel loathed to sell at the current price so would favour hanging onto the shares because I don't think the fundamentals of the business model have changed. However it may be quite complex for me to keep hold of them as they are held in SIPP accounts. I've emailed both platforms concerned to ask what my options are, other than to sell at the current depressed price.
Clearly a very unfriendly development for privat e shareholders in geec. I’m personally taking a moment reflect on what’s happening here and what my (very limited) options are.
This was already a very illiquid stock to trade, as highlighted by management, but OTC trading looms and so will be even more liquid.
I think there is a small chance there is a relisting on another exchange. Reason for this is that geec have big investment plans and access to public markets will be an important route to getting finance for their growth.
The delisting here in this instance is not due to company failing! In fact as mentioned in previous posts the company is well positioned in growing gas markets with rising gas prices and demand.
Outlook for company as they deliver on growth plans in the next years should mean that investors can negotiate in OTC markets a higher value than you can get for your shares now.
Worth considering that in time significant dividend could come through for shareholders as free cashflow builds from increasing sales and falling capex. Granted this will be several years away.
Geec may even be bought out in time by Essar or ONGC, which would equate to an industry determined fair market value and result in a potentially good return for investors here. Again though- long term outcome with very little liquidity in the meantime and far from certain that this will happen.
Shareholders will retain the holdings in the company though but will likely see dilution as geec seeks funding for growth. However, again without public market listing they are limited to farm in and debt. Debt alone won’t raise enough and so it’s a farm in or no funding. Remember that the company need $2bn of capex to maximise value of opportunity.
Early conclusion from me is that is a cynical move by management to grab the lions share of remaining shares at ultra knock down prices just ahead of what management can see is a period of significant value creation. For that reason I’m going to hang on with my investment and take my chances in private markets, potential for dividends and take out and a possible relisting in time. I’ve been invested for many years and will now have to stick this out for a good number more years. Believe though that I will get much more back in the long run by holding out rather than selling into this highly distorted market.
Those selling ahead of this rns in size almost certainly knew this was likely coming and so will be bringing to attention of FCA.
Feeling sick though like other investors here and have no remaining respect for management and their greed! Determined to get value from my investment though.
I've sold "at any cost" this morning following the delisting announcement. Any cost was 5p. Gutting end to this journey but recent experience with Metal Tiger delisting and continuing on the ASX is that sooner is better.
Given there was zero marketing or effort to promote GEEC other than an effusive SP Angel article whose advise I now know to take with a salt mine of salt, it's not surprising there was "negigible activity".
As far as I'm concerned this is a blatant grab by greedy Directors who I'm sure are hoovering up shares at 5p etc with glee knowing they have bright days ahead. They could have offered a tender offer or other means if they had any concern for GDR holders.
If you hold GEEC in a broker with great international presence (i.e. India) then you should be ok. Knowing to only go near CDIs and GDRs if you are with certain brokers is one of those subtle "gotcha" and can get getcha and that got me.
Good luck all remaining and I dare say the share itself should do well - but I would question the integrity of the management so as they say in latin - caveat investor!
On todays rns?
Started: Bismarck, 13 Mar 2023 16:37
Last post: TroytoTiber, 13 Mar 2023 17:13
Nice purchase Bismarck! Struggling to find spare cash and have a big position already but I’m keen to get a few more in at these levels.
Hadn’t seen the sells given LSE hadn’t disclosed them and too lazy to check the official stock exchange.
Geec haven’t drilled any more wells for years so the number is still 156 with 144 more to drill in the original 300 drill plan. However , these 144 will incorporate the shale drilling also if proven up as economic to extract.
Company have also now indicated that there are more opportunities to expand the field and drill more wells beyond the original 300.
Was searching for an update on how many CBM wells they now have and came across this
Rating upgraded to 'CRISIL BBB+/ Stable'
https://www.crisil.com/mnt/winshare/Ratings/RatingList/RatingDocs/GreatEasternEnergyCorporationLimited_August%2030,%202022_RR_297936.html
Started: TroytoTiber, 13 Mar 2023 15:21
Last post: Bismarck, 13 Mar 2023 16:25
Correction, I bought 43K not 47K today
I can see the 75.5K and 16K trades @ 12.1p
I sold a little elsewhere today and topped up 47K @ 12.7p to bring my average down below 20p now
I guess someone or some people need to sell when there is no interest from buyers.
Even if GEEC cannot find a partner of some kind to fund large scale shale exploration/production they've still got plenty more CBM wells to drill have they not ?
From their website, not sure how up to date the well numbers are -
"GEECL's Raniganj (South) block licence area covers 210 sq. km (52,500 acres). We will drill 300 wells in the contracted area. A 5-well cluster pattern will be followed for drilling the wells. The wells are connected by an internal MDPE pipeline network going into our Gas Gathering Station and then feeding the gas into our dedicated external steel pipeline network.
Area of 210 sq. km.
10.62 TCF of Original-Gas-in-Place
156 wells drilled
A further 144 wells planned to be drilled
56 deviated wells have been successfully drilled
Dedicated pipeline of 77.62 km running through the heart of the Asansol-Durgapur industrial belt"
Another large block of stock about to be booked out and reported later today/after close? Could do with an update from the company to confirm no change in outlook but suspect we don’t get anything maybe even until July FY results. Whoever is selling will no doubt keep selling regardless.
Investment thesis still intact in my view so will have to check down the back of the sofa for any spare cash to put to work in geec.
Started: TroytoTiber, 13 Mar 2023 15:24
Last post: TroytoTiber, 13 Mar 2023 15:24
Also just wondering if it is a coincidence that at around the time we know that the company will be thinking about funding expansion of drilling activities and ramping production, the shares suffer from some persistent selling.
Started: Bismarck, 3 Mar 2023 12:07
Last post: TroytoTiber, 3 Mar 2023 18:16
I think you’ve got your answer there Bismarck witht that 15.01hrs trade. It’s a big lump of stock given how little trade there is usually in GEEC. No bad news that I can see so just suspect that it’s more likely someone has run out of patience. It’s what makes a market so for those who think that the investment thesis is still intact, then it’s even cheaper to get in thanks to that seller.
Worth remembering the recent lows of around 8p at the height of the covid induced lock downs and possibility of a vaccine only just emerging. Things were grim then and the outlook was very uncertain. We now have:
Indian economic growth firing again
Higher expectations for longer term gas prices
More evidence of commitment to increase gas share of Indian energy mix and more favourable regulatory landscape of gas exploration and production
Restart of the construction of pipeline to Kolkata
A company that has remained cashflow positive throughout
And as highlighted in your earlier message Bismarck a very compelling valuation that seems to discount a lot of bad news already.
I’m
Still very confident that the shares are significantly mispriced and that with a few more months - maybe 12 to 24 tops - we will have news of increased reserves, offtake agreement with pipeline owner GAIL, financing for substantial roll out of new wells in place and production ramping steeply! As always though just my thoughts so don’t anyone take it as investment advice
Does anyone know the reason for the recent weakness in SP?
As far as I'm aware there's been no negative news. It's all pretty low volume dealing at the moment so maybe just someone or a number of people wanting to exit while there is little interest from buyers. Maybe an opportunity to top up, it has to bottom out somewhere?
What's changed fundamentally since it peaked in the 40's Feb last year?
Started: TroytoTiber, 20 Feb 2023 20:29
Last post: Bismarck, 1 Mar 2023 14:02
Even without shale this still looks incredibly undervalued to me.
According to Stocko -
Price to book value 0.26
2019 net profit $8.4M USD
2020 net profit $8.95M USD
Obviously we know what happened to gas demand in India after that.
Forecast NP of $8.2M for 2023 and $12.3M for 2024, although they don't publish forecast revenue or operating profit against those so I'm not sure how those numbers are derived and take them with a pinch of salt.
If they can get to $11-$12M USD NP within a couple of years that's a P/E of 2 at our present MCap!
Agreed Bismarck - big financing required and will take a lot of skill to not leak to much value to new investors. I think it’s very likely that the finance can be found over the course of the next few years. The cashflow from production will fund capex after a few years. It’s really just the first $300m or maybe a bit more needed over the next year or two for new wells. My money is on farm in with Essar or ONGC and a slab of debt. Little geec negotiating with those mega companies though for good farm in terms is a big question mark as you highlight. Only £18m mkt cap though so I’d assume that even in a very bad deal geec hangs on to many multiples of that.
Thanks for your input Troy
Shame the CEO's ambitions plans have done little to lift the SP thus far. As you say, a lot of patience is required
The plans are very ambitions indeed for a company of £20M market cap, I do hope they can pull it off -
"GEECL is also carrying out a shale gas exploration program at Raniganj, Modi said, adding that the initial plan envisaged drilling core wells to map out the geology.
"We'll do a few of those tests with 10 odd million dollars or so of spending to get an idea of what kind of prospects are out there," Modi said.
"After that, we will do a pilot well, drilling and then get into development. If that happens, as much as $2 billion go into it," he said."
Thanks for your message Jonhas. Good to hear and I still remain confident that patience will be rewarded with geec. When management own 2/3rds of the company, communication by the company with the remaining 1/3rd unfortunately is low priority. I’m sure all investors here find this frustrating and it can test patience. As you say though things look well set up for geec now for 2023 and I’m hopeful for news on shale drilling plans soon. No point in extracting the gas though until they can sell it all so pipeline completion to Kolkata is critical.
Hi TroytoTiber
I appreciate your updates on a generally neglected share. I bought back in early 2021 and the lack of news-flow has tested my patience at times. However the fundamentals and promise still look as good now as when I first bought. Fair to say my other oil/gas shares have generally performed better over the past year but I'm holding out for the pipeline and the clear articulation of the expansion plans.
Started: TroytoTiber, 1 Feb 2023 10:34
Last post: TroytoTiber, 1 Feb 2023 10:34
Some good contextual info here
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/indias-gas-consumption-target-faces-risks/
Helpful context to understanding the complex evolution of gas growth within India’s energy mix.
For geec though I think this piece is supportive with positive comments on the near term completion of the urja ganga pipeline and City gas distribution growth near to medium term looking good.
Clearly though the volatility of international gas prices has hampered demand growth in india, capacity utilisation of gas infrastructure and therefore further capital expenditure on required infrastructure to get gas to energy mix targets.
Started: TroytoTiber, 16 Jan 2023 21:11
Last post: Bismarck, 18 Jan 2023 13:25
Very quiet indeed, and only 2 trades so far this month. Hard to believe this was 40p a year ago and I don't think anything's happened since to justify this. Let's hope for some exciting news soon to create some interest and lift the SP.
More in an attempt to break the long periods of silence that have become a familiar hallmark of GEEC management, have had a look for any new snippets that might indicate any changes to timeframes for selling gas to Kolkata.
GAIL, the Indian gas infrastructure company issued an update in august last year that gives a june 2023 completion timeline for the pipeline to Kolkata. https://www.livemint.com/companies/company-results/gail-q1-net-profit-up-91-at-rs-2-915-crore-11659626586752.html
Reading the transcript of the latest GAIL financial results and the response to a question about the pipeline and capex for H2 it seems that the majority of H2 capex will be the Haldia pipeline and particularly referenced the delayed bits (which to be fair is all of it).
So it still looks like this is the year for commissioning of the Haldia branch. I live in total hope and probably no rationality on this. It’s india after all and nothing anyone says there in business should ever be taken with anything other than huge dose of caution. https://gailonline.com/pdf/InvestorsZone/EarningsCallTranscript041122.pdf
They also targeted the shale gas test drilling before end of March 2023 so this should be imminent. 74 days until the end of March - you’d think they would know by now if they had booked in some teams to drill the wells. Maybe they just don’t want to tell us or maybe they haven’t got anything booked in!
I’ve said it many times before, if we get good news on both these issues then 2023 will be hugely important for the share price and perceived value of the business.
At the moment though market couldn’t care at all and virtually no good news is priced in. The upside is huge if the ‘if’s come in.
Happy new year and here’s to GEEC’s break through in 2023.
Started: TroytoTiber, 8 Nov 2022 17:43
Last post: Agricore, 10 Nov 2022 22:44
Hi Troyto, I can't argue with your logic on this. There is a slowly, slowly catchy monkey approach to GEEC's growth and while the pipeline will improve price and profitability the prohibitive cost of debt means even a $20m drill program seems ambitious. A farm in does solve the problem.
One aspect that frustrates me about GEEC is that they have not made progress in securing an offtake agreement with GAIL. The upside of waiting is that they can now maybe lock in a much higher price for any offtake signed in the next few months given the guidance in the interim results of expectations for substantially higher realised gas prices for cbm in the market.
So with the benefit of any doubt given to the management for this master stroke of strategic thinking, we can now read the more energised wording in the interim results to get on with expanding production and the explicit reference of farm in as a source of finance as possibly hinting that the management have started some initial conversations.
So who might be in the frame? Essar Oil and Gas operate the raniganj east field adjacent to geec’s raniganj south and have a very significant balance sheet at their disposal.
Essar is already connected to the Urja Ganga pipeline, which is connected to the national grid since May 2021. The company has an agreement with Gail to supply the CBM through the gas pipeline.
Given the drilling synergies that must be significant between the two companies my money would be on a farm in with Essar and maybe also an overseas technical partner to bring shale gas specialism to this opportunity.
While such a move would dilute the massive upside potential for the share price of geec, it would also expedite the roll out of hundreds of new wells. Once largely complete and derailed I also wouldn’t be surprised if Essar then buy out geec and other shareholders (from farm in).
Essar are moving on this now and so if I’m right an announcement won’t be far off. Geec can’t finance their ambition from debt despite the strong balance sheet. It just isn’t big enough. They could issue a significant amount of new equity and combine with a London main market listing. I wonder though if that would get away at a high enough price for management to accept the dilution. So maybe the more attractive option is the farm in where synergies and a better understanding of the true value of the raniganj asset that Essar would bring is the option that lands?
As always time will tell but the tone and wording of the last update imply that we are not far away now in my opinion. Vital to DYOR though
Started: TroytoTiber, 7 Nov 2022 22:09
Last post: TroytoTiber, 7 Nov 2022 22:09
Outlook is most important with GEEC with a potential highly transformative step up in reserves, production, sales and cash inflow. Negatives are that the numbers themselves were nothing to dwell on (but it isnt about the current numbers) and the fact that no update on the date for shale exploration drilling or the pipeline to Kolkata was given.
Positives are that pricing outlook for 2023 and 2024 are significantly higher than current prices and that company has re-iterated the additional CBM wells that can be drilled on top of the 144 remaining from the original drill plan for Raniganj South. There is also more firm talk of finance options (debt, equity and farm in) which indicates maybe that we are much closer to news on financing the huge growth opportunity. The higher pricing outlook has brought higher confidence to push ahead with drilling more wells (supported i guess by the progress of the kolkata pipeline).
I was hoping for a date for the shale exploration drilling but clearly this is still a little way off. The statement seems to imply that the focus for more immediate expansion is CBM. 2023 is indicated as the year that the CBM drilling campaign will resume so either way next year is an exciting year for production and reserves increases.
A bit longer to wait i suspect. i still have a high degree of confidence that GEEC will re-rate strongly during financial year 2023/24