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@Trek Be careful anyone would think we are conspiracy theorists, unfortunately POG is the "Anti-Dollar" and a direct competitor to USD so central to the current economic war.
I prefer to look at what CBs are actually doing rather than what they are telling us what to do. CBs are currently repatriating their gold and buying serious amounts more at these cheap prices (assuming that they can get physical) whilst the West 'sells' paper gold to depress the price and the East happily buys and takes physical delivery it whilst it is on sale. I don't think pricing gold or oil in Roubles and then sanctioning Russian gold was a coincidence.
It will be interesting to see what happens when physical metal becomes impossible to source particularly if no one wants to sell it at these low prices unless its paper gold being sold ... when this turns I think we'll get the mother of all "short squeezes" but unfortunately as we are talking about gold here so sadly something big will need to break properly first.
I'll remain a happy holder of gold in the ground with a mine sat on top in sunny Kenya focusing on value and taking the opportunity to top up whilst it is on sale at a few USD/ounce.
ATB APR
We only sell gold dore once a month so does it really matter that much about the daily price? I don't think so because they sell 12 times per year which would average out over the year.
MRE coming soon and it's a big upgrade IMO
APR, Yes plenty of room between AISC and US$ POG, plus you also have to take into account that the US$ has recently risen against all currencies(over 12% vs GBP), so that margin has increased 12% in GBP terms.
POG valued in all other currencies has been far less dented. GBP POG currently at £1450 vs £1550 all time high. Very similar in Kenyan Shillings! 205,579 vs ath of ~232,500
After all GCAT is valued in GBP and our profits will be in GBP, so as a UK investor I only look at GBP POG, whilst noting KES vs US$ for operations costs.
Hi Apro,
You know full well the POG has hit a technical death cross and ‘is’ due a bounce from your TA knowledge. But it all hinges on USD strength.
With 10 year treasuries now over 3% and the inversion looking like just a flirtation it’s bullish USD and bearish gold?
Bit of a ping pong. Will the arbitrage between treasury yields and inflation be arrested with higher rates. Nope as that will mean 9% rates to net evens. Tick for gold.
As inflation is due to supply side constraints then no matter what you do with rates those constraints are still there.
That is a different playbook to what the Fed are used to or anyone else for that matter.
The dark horse is oil price. Higher rates reduce the demand for oil which is an inflationary driver. But then it stunts growth big time! But then oil is fighting back as the world looks like it can’t pump enough even for reduced demand!
For sure tho the higher USD makes imports cheaper but there ain’t the stuff there to buy! You have to add in China lockdowns, Russian commodities price caps, then the back door work arounds etc
You also have a unique situation where there is almost full employment in the west for those that want to work and vacancies.
So if you screw the economy with rate rises when businesses can’t get stuff and can’t find labour then what a fk up!
Then you factor in on a geopolitical front that you have Russia and China playing a long game. Accumulating gold setting up their own brics currency and financial infrastructure.
An autocracy can basically do what they want because they have a managed population that will do what they are told or face the consequences!
Meanwhile in the West there will be absolute anarchy because folk are loosing their livelihood and are confronted with huge food bills and pay that lags!
Whilst the West tries to sort its own mess out, of its own making, China and Russia will be courting South America, Africa and Asia hooking them on cheap commodities and infrastructure ‘crack loans’ ready to expand their influence. And they wont give a fk if their populations are starving!
You see folk keep looking at the old drivers whilst the geopolitics is playing out in plain sight.
You could even get right down to the detail like Tic Toc. If Africa it is absolutely huge backed by celebrity wannabes. The searches and ads are all manipulated so the right stuff gets to the top. Influencers that push the right narrative have the best hits. The data is offshored. There is a back door for everything. Who to? China.
Remember Cambridge Analytics. Well copy and improve. That’s what they do!
I could go on and there are answers but they need a long term approach and that doesn’t fit in with our short term 4 year democratic cycles.
All my own view, hey, I will stick with gold!
Usual caveats
Trek
I emailed them over a week ago and not had a reply, again. But that is no different from many other companies. Some reply some don’t.
Also the % not in public hands is misleading as nominees are mostly public holdings.
I am not bothered if there is a seller or not. That happens all the time with these companies and it has a disproportionate affect on the SP.
That should be viewed as an opportunity IF the numbers and ops are as purported.
Holders sell for many reasons but only buy for one. Well I hope!
As far as I can tell they are selling enough gold to run the operations and have the 1m for TZ. Let’s face it if that wasn’t the case we would have run out of cash ages ago!
Once the output increases so will follow expansion and RBL if required. SHG have shown us there is money available for the right projects.
The MRE will happen. Even if it’s not mega it will be an improvement and a valuation data point which is clearly in need atm
For balance talking my own book as have a significant holding now. But isn’t that what happens on BB’s.
Just feel within the next couple of weeks we should know and I have backed RM.
Usual caveats
Trek
@Trek Does this now count as "Blood on the Streets" and "be greedy when others are fearful" ... or more sector woe to come?
Looking at POG chart it is basically UGLY UGLY UGLY but has not yet tested $1,725 (Sept-21) or $1,680 (Mar-21) so not sure if this counts as "Capitulation" or not yet.
Good job GCATs AISC is $1,250 and heading lower then as we are still profitable so acquisition targets will only be getting cheaper :-)
ATB APR
Some very big volumes today. In fact, big volumes for the whole week.
Most companies post the share register on their website and Caracal have elected no to do so. They don't post what they don't want you to look at. IMO
Something big is going down behind the scenes
They know what's going on legalwolf they just don't want to tell us that's for sure hahaha. GLA have a good evening all iam away for a few pints
I've always had the impression that when RM decried the selling/seller, he did not know who was doing the selling? Certainly, I recall him saying in one interview "we seem to have a seller".
Is it a surprise that he doesn't know, as CEO of the company, who the seller(s) are/were, and more so, if it included large shareholders and former and current management/BOD? The company would surely know from its own internal reporting and maintenance of registers?
Page 134 of the Prospectus for all locked in shareholders. All companies only list the top holders on their websites, not smaller ones.
A few possible causes of this:-
- Jason Brewer is no longer considered management and he has a significant holding.
- The two legacy directors have now resigned (and mostly sold out anyway).
I think they dropped the stat as it is now now very impressive and certainly far less than it was. Perhaps it would have been better to explain it.
yeah drop them an email legalwolf you might get a reply if there in the mood.
I would email the company for clarity LW.
It's you - thank you for that link. I guess what is confusing is that as recently as the May 2022 presentation, management/bod were listed as having a combined holding of 21.7%. However, no figure is given in the most recent presentation, a point which has already been noted. But if you then look at the link you have provided - the Shareholder Analysis - there are only two Directors listed there, RM (5.24%) and GK-G (2.94%). What has happened to the remaining ~ 11% of shares held by management/BOD? I can't see any other BOD listed there, nor any of the Senior Management. Locked in you say?
Me to. 2 x 500k. 1 at 649 and 1 at 65.
Got a great average now. I think!
Mostly buys today by the looks.
Could even finish blue. May be a FOMO Friday. Who knows but value should out.
Just need to back up RM’s bullishness with numbers!
Pretty much comes down to wether you believe him or not. I think he is too pleasantly naive to lie. Answers questions honestly thinking it’s the best policy. It mostly is. But I think you get what I mean.
And then the…..
‘…..oh we got 1.75m cash’ … no more questions. Perhaps the host has had coffee with RM! Lol!
Usual caveats
Trek
Just bought more to
*part not sort…. phone bother
(my phone thinks nee is a word and not new. Go figure)
I’m not part of the telegram group however I remember someone that is sort of the group saying the selling has been resolved to a manageable level. The ex partner was not very good at figures and led to some shareholders questioning the stock. That was in May and I don’t feel the selling has been resolved to a manageable level.
I’m just thankful for our man in Jersey hoovering up many of these unwanted shares.
One day the seller has to run out of shares…. one day.
Legalwolf,
Directors, Management and others are locked in.
In fact the CEO did the opposite and bought just over 4m shares at avg 1.04p, just over 2months ago.
Latest holdings : https://caracalgold.com/investors/shareholder-analysis/
I wonder whether its worth looking back to the very inception of the company last year, to see who had what shares, and whether/what they paid for them, and then tracking that? Too often, we have ended up with the 'who could be selling at a profit at these prices?' question? More recently, there were postings on here suggesting management were no longer listed amongst the major shareholders, and that they previously held ~ 19%. I've not been tuning into this bb as often, so could have missed the end of that particular discussion, but did we bottom out whether management had sold, or were no longer listed for some other reason?
Crazy why the large sells down here, you can only assume they got these shares for free or they are in real financial direstraits.
Nothing has changed with the company so odd, is what it is. I'm in with 16 million for the long term .
Glad to see weaker hands departing before news! Long term investing wins again
10 million unknown looks like sells?
Johnson resigns … now for the EMR (please)