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We're at a start of a bull run - this is at PE 13.5 - at current eps. Broker has pencilled in a 10.4 eps next year - which is a joke - so - expect upgrades. This is just simply mispriced.
This was a "significantly" exceeded expectations - I think that the big boys are going to pull this up to 170 - 180.
Keystone Law has a high PE - no idea what FRP has to do to justify a PE 16-17. They have not put a foot wrong in the past few years.
So stargate - are the stars aligned?
Japanese spinning top candlestick, small body, close-open, in relation to larger high-low, implies indecision on further equity progress. Yesterday was a large sp, gap up and bullish large candle. Fibonacci measured from the last trough, for a potential 38.2% retracement, implies 132.8, within range of the price group. The spinning top high of 147.5 and low of 142.5, define the future direction , whether up, on a break of the high, or down, on a breakdown, of the low of 142.5. If a retracement ensues, and sp, stabilises at fibonacci 38.2%-50% , it could be a case of buy the dip. DYOR.
Re-rating in progress.
Can FRP finally achieve the recognition from the market that it deserves after an excellent track record?
One company to benefit from the rise in insolvencies has been FRP Advisory, the restructuring group, which expects its annual profits to rise to £37 million. The London-based company expects to record revenue of £128 million for the year to the end of April, up 23 per cent from the same period last year.
During the year the group’s restructuring division has handled well-known cases, including The Body Shop, the cosmetics and skincare company, Inland Homes, the property business, and the parent company of Reader’s Digest, the magazine.
FRP Advisory said that it had been “active nationwide” as company insolvencies rose and that it had increased its market share to 16 per cent during the year, from 14 per cent in 2023. The corporate and debt advisory team completed 76 transactions in the year to the end of April, with an aggregate deal value of £1.4 billion, down from £1.8 billion the previous year.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/company-insolvencies-rise-by-almost-a-fifth-6bwqcqqgx
Today's market is a little risk off. KLR did 20% with a significantly exceed on a risk-on day.
Also, many big buy ins.
EPS forecasted by Cavendish for FY 4/25 is 10.4p which is very very conservative given FY 4/24 EPS is pencilled as 10p.
Thus, would expect -
1. earnings upgrade
+
2. potential expansion to PE to 15-16 - given their last 5 years of solid track record.
Really impressive and with economic conditions fully in their favour and likely to persist this should have a strong run.
Promising start.
It’s always a promising when a trading statement opens with “excellent trading performance ahead of expectations”.
Revenue up 23%, EBITDA up 37%, net cash up from £22.9m to £29.7m. Healthy organic growth across all aspects of the business supplemented by sensible, well researched acquisitions.
I expect to see FRP sitting in a healthy position on the leaderboard come 4.30 tonight.
Administrations (FRP’s specialty) up around 15% v last year and nearly double the rate during Covid lockdown period.
Corporate insolvencies rose 5% to 1,769 in January. 2.5% higher than January 2019 (1,726)
Indeed. Has started to creep up nicely. I have noticed that the number of Administrations is now (finally) starting to accelerate and that is very much FRP's specialism.
Bit of share price activity today at last.
In an economic situation in the UK which should ideally suit FRP Advisory's talents, the SP movements remain a continuing disappointment to shareholders. Hope to see some improvements here PDQ.
£2m buy just went through. Unusual and interesting....
Kindly verify if this is the company Rob Cooper has joined before investing. I may be mistaken, and I apologize if I have caused any concern. Please review the chat and form your own conclusion regarding whether it is the same person. If not, I apologize for any unnecessary worry.
Following their initial public offerings (IPOs), the majority of the Big 4 accounting firms have separated their insolvency divisions due to conflicts with their audit clients. These newly established and formidable spin-offs now directly compete with FRP for major lucrative projects. While FRP previously disclosed market share data, they have chosen not to do so this time. It is likely that these new competitors will gradually erode FRP's market share, and this trend is expected to persist.
According to Shares Magazine, insolvencies are expected to rise starting from October 1st, following the cessation of government assistance for struggling companies. Only time will tell, but FRP could potentially benefit from this situation, leading to good business opportunities.
The dividend payment was slightly delayed, but it was received on the 22nd.
The economic big picture is absolute perfection for FRP, BEG and MANO. Would like to see FRP addressing the smaller CVL cases, as well as their undisputed expertise in Administrations. Then this company could be an enormous restructuring and insolvency outfit.
Ok - so the share price fell from about 155 at the start of the year to 108 a couple of weeks ago on very little news of note and now today it is back at 130. Begbies meanwhile hardly moves.
The UK Government’s Insolvency Service stats published last week, shows FRP still just about the number 1 Administrations appointment taker but Begbies and Quantuma are now just a few cases behind them. Very different picture to a year or two ago, when FRP was very far in front of any other firm. I think the FRP IPO has possibly served to highlight the high margins in FRP’s niche of larger, more complex Administrations and their competitors are now going aggressively after that segment.
Additionally - the Big 4 accounting groups have/are spinning off their insolvency arms so those newly independent entities can pitch for previously conflicted appointments. FRP used to have the pick of those as they were never conflicted as they were never part of a big accounting/audit group.
I like the FRP business and team, and the macro picture is excellent for them, but the share price needs to reflect these important new competitive factors before I am tempted to invest.
I would also like to see FRP attack Begbies and Quantuma’s core area of liquidations - lower value but much higher volume appointments. That is THE particularly buoyant area of the insolvency market. Administrations are actually lower year on year, at the moment at least. This would also make better use of FRP’s large overhead structure.
As ever, just my opinions, DYOR of course.
FRP Advisory Group PLC - London-based business advisory firm - Non-Executive Director David Adams buys 100,000 shares at GBP1.1782, worth GBP117,820, in London on Monday. Adams is now interested in 412,500 shares, 0.17% stake.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FRP-ADVISORY-GROUP-PLC-104092382/news/FRP-Advisory-Non-Exec-Director-Adams-buys-100-000-shares-43242718/
Indeed….a good few institutions who bought at 140p will be spitting feathers!
It certainly has a strange feel about it, though nothing mentioned in the Feb RNS. "The medium-term outlook for all of our markets remains positive."
I would have though directors would be buying at these levels. The sells in June 2022 at 140 look shall we say well timed.