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Merloid- been patient for Apx 8+ years. Not as long as many but long enough. $.30 would be more than a double which would give me about a 10pct annual return here- not what I was hoping for but also not down! Schemeil, yes we need monetization but will that happen? I see a scenario where Sheffield and friends acquire more and more shares quietly and take this co private at a relatively low number. I could be wrong of course- and hope I am- wouldn't be surprised. I stated that I didn't think we would see much of an upside here with good results and u fortunately I was right. I didn't think we'd see a downside though. There's a reason for it and I don't think it's good for us. Sorry to be a negative Nelly, I really hope I'm wrong.
Esacas
Mate, these are strange markets, very strange markets. At present real value is unleashed when monetisation occurs and not before. Potential no longer applies. What matters is that potential is realised and then turned into cash through either takeover or some other form of monetisation event
Suffice to say, FOG is closer to the above than it has even been before and believe me I and others should know, we've been for what seems like a FECKING lifetime, 'scuse the French
No way I would take 30 cents. Patience is still needed here.
Newt,
We better hope the 90 day numbers are good. We know the stock goes down w good numbers, with bad I'm sure we'll see $.05 again! I would take a $.30/share buyout right now no problem. Forget $1/share, I don't see a scenario where the retail investors get that- hope I'm wrong.
Rsacas -- promoting this stock to some of the big oil and gas investment ETF's and brokerages would certainly help generate new buyers -- as there doesn't appear to be more than a couple of day traders wrecking havoc and pushing Falcon down.
That being said -- without new deeper pocket investors we are somewhat stuck with this ridiculously low price point on Falcon due to the fairly clear timeline on smoothing the path forward to the full Pilot Production plans. Tamboran and Falcon both need to secure more funding to cover the next two full length 3 km horizontals later this year, and position themselves for further funding steps in 2025 for the remaining four horizontals (if POQ hasn't found a buyer before then).
Tamboran needs to complete their move to being a US listed company, and we need to see how strong the EUR is after the 90 day flow test is complete -- with both events taking place around the end of April. The satellite shot seems to be indicating that the 90 day flow rate should be solidly in the higher EUR category!!
However, without some solid promotion to the bigger gas investment banks -- that can clearly see that Falcon's side of the recoverable gas in the Deep Blue Core area alone is in the range of 5 TCF of gas -- I am very concerned that we won't see any respect for Falcon's position in the Beetaloo until the full length horizontals are completed.
This is something I cant understand. Amazing flare and flow for many days and SP going down. Maybe is because our bird has not been correctly promoted. Hidden interests?.
We clearly need volume to go to next stage.
FOG is a non-operating partner but Santos is THE operator. Even though they are not active atm, they are still present and may be waiting for others to spend money and see what works.
I speculate Santos will be active just to book reserves; their RRR sucks.
805slo -- your question has validity -- if you read what this less than diligent research piece has stated in error about which companies are currently involved in the Beetaloo and the crap they state about Viktor Vekselberg.
"Sheffield is strategically positioned within two of the three companies operating in the Beetaloo" -- with no mention about Sheffield's over 9% interest in Falcon.
Then a bit further on the following misleading statement: "Moreover, Sheffield’s collaboration extends to Russian oligarch Viktor Vekselberg, the largest shareholder in Falcon Oil & Gas, who remains a non-operating partner of the Origin assets within the Beetaloo".
Sheffield has had absolutely zero collaboration with Vekselberg -- as for all intents purposes Vekselberg has zero input into Falcon affairs anymore -- since the sanctions against him were put on two years ago. BS only deals with POQ as far as his large investments in Falcon are concerned
The three companies that are operating in the Beetaloo currently are -- Tamboran, Empire, and the largest permit owner in the Beetaloo Basin -- Falcon Oil and Gas (as Santos has suspended all of their Beetaloo operations currently).
There is no mention in this article of Falcon's long 14 year history in the Beetaloo -- nor any mention that it was Falcon that created ALL the forward momentum in the Beetaloo by fracking the very first horizontal just before the moratorium kicked in 6.5 years ago. Without that frack going ahead 6.5 years ago -- (proving the existence of the massive gas resource in the mid-Velkerri shales) -- the forward momentum in the Beetaloo could easily have ceased due to all the Pepper Inquiry's somewhat restrictive new recommendations that were adopted.
More importantly -- Brian Sheffield's investment to date in Falcon is almost twice the percentage of his Empire investment at just over 9 % interest in Falcon (and most likely higher if BS has been snapping up cheap shares of late like he was doing a year ago). Sheffield's total dollar amount invested in Falcon is much more than double his investment in Empire -- especially when his extra $6 million purchase of the 2% ORRI is added in to the equation.
I think it kind of mentions it. LOL
Doesn’t he own a stake in FOG as well? Wonder why that was not mentioned.
Huge endorsement of Beetaloo's importance and prospectivity
Https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2024/03/13/bryan-sheffield-increases-stake-in-empire-energy/
Maybe while we are speculating, we might include Sheffield's Formentera Partners. It has been rumored that this partnership which was recently oversubscribed to for US $828 million could be used as a base vehicle for another operating company in the Beetaloo. Early speculation at this point, but with Sheffield as laser focused on the Beetaloo as he is, Formentera could spin off an operating company. Likely not much to this, but a lot of money there if the partners chose to invest in the 'largest undeveloped shale oil basin in the world'.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Formentera Partners is an energy-focused, private equity strategy founded by Bryan Sheffield and Blake London in 2020. Partners, Paul Treadwell and Stephanie Reed, joined the firm in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and together, the partners have worked closely with one another for more than a decade.
Based in Austin, Texas, Formentera responsibly acquires and optimizes producing oil and gas assets in onshore United States basins and strategically develops the assets under management. The Formentera team leverages substantial experience in operations, engineering and finance to drive continued success and utilizes strict diligence criteria, hedging, streamlined structure and new age technology to produce visible and predictable income returns.
Formentera Partners Fund II Closes Oversubscribed with $828.5 Million in Capital Commitments
Empire just posted Sheffield owns about 41 million shares
I guess that BS likes the driver`s seat most and that should be a reason that he wants to keep the operating company TBN. He influenced TBN and the operations already by bringing H&P and Liberty to Australia as shareholders of TBN. This can be a hint that TBN will remain as operator in the future. EEG is the second operating company. For the playbook it could be one option to merge EEG and TBN and get some synergies (like one management instead of two for example).
FOG is the most attractive company for a company that does not operate the upstream in the Beetaloo and does not have the extensive US shale gas know how, like INPEX for example. For a good cooperation it makes sense that a company which operates, owns the LNG facilities in Darwin becomes a stakeholder in the Beetaloo upstream as well.
On the other hand FOG is perhaps the financally most attractive gem in the Beetalloo . And this could be a reason that BS wants to keep FOG for himself, like a nest egg? Ofcourse I would like to see that FOG is sold for a billion $ or more in the near future. On the other hand in the case FOG becomes a dividends generating company in the Beetaloo I hope we are still alive to get the dividends because we are waiting already too long.
We can be sure BS is the dominating stakeholder in the Beetaloo Basin by influencing FOG, TBN and EEG with his share plus his Daily Waters company. and that he has a plan for the next 5, 10, 25 years. Unfortunately his plans for FOG are not published.
So my speculation is that TBN will be the operator in the future and FOG is the take over target for a company with LNG trains in Australia.
I'm guessing BS is going to steal this co at a pretty low price eventually. The only ones who won't make out will be the retail investors.
Wish Sheffield would take over this bird.
POQ has made an estimated $7,200,000 during his great leadership of FOG (12 years X $600k annually). Meanwhile, he spent virtually ZERO buying shares in the open market. Good gig!
How much money have you made in Falcon?
Should be sub $.10 soon. Hate to do it but might buy some more.
Is spreading like Wildfire! Around the world!
If you get enough liquids in the well your facilities and compression projects get more complex and have higher and harder to manage costs. With dry gas flowing freely in a shale at $12+ there is no reason whatsoever to pursue liquids at the expense of dry gas production.
Shanker11 -- Origin789 is correct about the Lower Kyalla well that drilled a few years back with minimal successful flows, which was another one of many disappointments -- as that zone, if the experts can eventually frack it successfully, is almost 100% located only on Falcon permits.
However, there was a vertical well drilled on EP76 into the mid-Velkerri formation and the eastern side of Falcon's three permits -- that the DFIT tests showed a much higher level of condensates. That EP76 vertical well is the closest well to the three mid-Velkerri Empire's wells that have shown higher condensate levels too, and appears to be at the same depth. This EP76 well certainly has added value for any future buyer of Falcon's interest in EP76, but the lateral extent of that formation is not fully known. and the shallower depth of the mid-Velkerri on the eastern flanks seems to have considerably lower overall flow rates as evidenced by Empire's three wells.
By comparison -- the much deeper and higher pressure Core area, that the Pilot production plans are set for in the SSH1 area of the Beetaloo, has a much higher (dry) gas flow rate across what appears to be a one million acre similar depth mid-Velkerri zone. This one million acre (darkest blue on the Falcon Presentations) area is also much closer to roads and pipelines infrastructure than the EP76 flank well that Origin drilled. Plus the very high selling price for natural gas in Australia ($10 to $12 range as compared to under $3 in US and Canada) makes the SSH1 one million acre zone the first priority for us, Tamboran, and B.S.
Yes, that was when Origin were testing the Kyalla formation, but It was mud rock and less suited to fracturing, Falcon's website reads:
Development of the lower Kyalla SRR, if viable, could have significant cost advantages over that of the middle Velkerri SRR due to expected lower drilling costs.
Mudgas and core analysis indicate the reservoir is likely to be wet gas which could also improve the economics considerably.
We are now back in the dry gas play whick is more suited to fracturing, but has a lower calorific value, and thus a slightly lower sale price.
I seem to remeber a couple years ago after a well test that although volumes were low at the time, our gas contained high condensate levels. This was important to us because it provided a higher economic return on the gas . The dollar per acre icreases due to the additional value in the condensate. I haven't heard any chatter about this with this well. Is it no longer part of our story?