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Simon Thompson tipped it at 5pm on Friday.
I bought in Friday morning at 61.5 and after Friday closing (57.5) I thought it was a really bad timing. But today it has started to fly. Good news coming?
What a surprise. Expect this to go places prior to the 24th.
Accept that Oxford Nanopore and Exscentia specialisms are different. The point I was trying to make is that it is very unlikely that the pre IPO funding valuation at the funding raises is reliable when the company later IPO's or is sold. This is on the cautious view:
"Others have adopted a more cautious view, with Jefferies analyst Ken Rumph suggesting a £4.5bn valuation could be more realistic. That price tag would still be significantly higher than its £1.7bn valuation at its last funding round late last year. With such a major prize up for grabs it is no surprise that various stock exchanges have launched a charm offensive."
Here is another example of book valuation as of only Sept 2020 and actual sale achieved for Merc (I don't hold):
"The sale results in a realised gain of £14.6million above Oxgene's £16.1million direct investment holding value as at 30 September 2020. The sale has generated a 5x return on Mercia's direct investment cost of £6.1million and a 51% internal rate of return ("IRR")."
Now for a market leader like Exscentia I would think the multiple that would be achieved would be higher than achieved by Merc and the Oxford Nanopore is probably the best comparison of those higher valuations which may be achieved in any IPO as you are comparing 2 companies who are market leaders or the major players in their respective fields. All imo dyor.
Oxford Nanopore does not compare to Exscientia. I think the closest match is BenevolentAI, they were valued at around $2billion in previous funding rounds
We should use Oxford Nanopore as the benchmark:
"...some analysts believe could be worth as much as $23bn (£16bn)". This is compared to the lowly £1.7 billion in the last funding round.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/02/28/britain-fights-land-oxford-nanopores-blockbuster-public-float/
Even going by the the more cautious £4.5b valuation mentioned in the article we have a multiple of the last funding valuation.
The way these things work imo is value very conservatively in the funding rounds and then the real value comes out in an IPO/sale after all these people want to get their stakes at funding below fair value.
And we have other potential disruptive companies in the pf.
That's the answer to jollyspeculator's question about what is special about Fipp, think he/she must have got their order filled a while ago.
Could even be worth more. Frontier IP should be valued at double with the amount of its investments at inflexion points. I’m not expecting it to be at these levels for much longer.
I agree.. Exscientia should be worth much more.
Not a chance is it worth 650. Between 1-1.5 billion
The world's biggest asset manager is backing a British company which uses artificial intelligence (AI) to discover new drug molecules as part of a $100m fundraising that puts it firmly on course to achieve coveted "unicorn" status.
Exscientia declined to comment on its latest valuation, but sources indicated that it was now worth in the region of $650m.
https://news.sky.com/story/fund-management-giant-blackrock-backs-100m-injection-into-uk-drug-developer-exscientia-12234979
I've held and followed Frontier IP for a while - would recommend checking out their related videos on youtube. CEO comes across as very credible.
For a similar I play (in a slightly different space) I would recommend looking at Sure Ventures. Also a well run company with good balance and even smaller market cap c£5mn. Some recent co-investment with Pires, and all investments in "hot" sectors.
Hi Balanced66 thanks for the information and links.
I do like the look of Exscentia, TVG and Pulsiv.
Their are quite a number of investee companies so plenty to investigate further.
Wonder if Pulsiv have done any graphene related research as this will certainly be a develpment area for the future.
It was actually a TERN investor who brought Frontier to my attention, I've just been a bit slow getting round to doing the research. I think TERN certainly has a couple of investees who's potential is right up their with Exscentia.
Worth checking out Device Authority and Fundamental VR. Both potential Unicorns IMHO.
Once again, thanks for the information
This link will show you all the collaborations going on in the background with Exscentia:
https://www.exscientia.ai/news-insights/category/partnerships?page=1
A detailed analysis from IC in the pdf though it is from 2019. Also link to more recent comment.
It does have companies at the forefront of innovation.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2020/07/27/small-caps-under-the-radar/
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/alpha/2019/11/15/alpha-simon-thompson-s-differentiated-intellectual-property-investment/
I haven't studied the other similar small outfits in any depth but I expect that their investee companies are not up to the same quality, are they for example working with industry heavyweights in their fields like Bosch are here here?
Exscentia could be worth almost or a big chunk of Fipp's market cap by the time it lists etc. as I understand it it is pretty much the leader in its field. In future it is expected that more and more drugs will come from ai companies like Exscentia. Pulsiv could also be huge in couple of years or so and could turn out to be very profitable for Fipp- how much are companies like Phe valued at and Pulsiv's patented products could have wider application. I would put it in the same category as battery storage or companies like Twd. The rest of the pf is also coming along nicely; it's not a case of 1 or 2 investee companies that are great all potentially could be. Which similar small investment companies can say that? All imo.
Have been invested in TERN for years and it looks like it might finally be coming to the boil.
Frontier appears to be a different beast with a a different invesment emphasis.
I would liken this to be simmering nicely and expect it to come to the boil in due course.
Have researched TEK and was not quite convinced by what I found. I need to do more research on its investee companies. before I would consider this.
Also invested in RGO, which has had its troubles in the past but seems to have done well on the timing of some of its recent investments and looks undervalued.
Investing in Frontier helps to spread my investments and hence risk.
I like what I see here. Seems to be managed OK and their is good potential.
better value elsewhere?
plenty of similar quoted VCs trade below NAV (eg TEK)...and where's the great potential hidden value in this pf (like DA in TERN)?
I've joined you chaps here too. Looks a very interesting proposition, and exposure to some key areas going forward. Will be interesting to see how the companies in the portfolio develop. Many have a significant chamc of developing into a key sector innovator
It is under the radar and I think you will be making a mistake to invest if it drops below NAV. It’s massively undervalued and I expect plenty of news flow between now and the end of March. Exscientia stake alone makes it worth investigating here. I’m surprised more haven’t seen it.
After doing a bit of research on Frontier IP I have just dipped a toe in here.
Go figure, my buy is showing up as a sell.
Looks an intersting company.
Like the idea of investing in university spin offs.
Not without some risk, but offers potential exciting rewards as well.
Looks like there were some growing pains between 2011 and 2017 but since then, Frontier appear to be growing nicely.
Especially in the last year or so.
This still seems under the radar and is currently only just over NAV. (about 1.25x by my guesstimate)
Will look to aquire more if this dips back towards NAV.
can not wait to invest so agree Cawdor1
I was clearly right with Octopus increasing their holding by 1% to over 4. This gem is way undervalued.
Clearly that 300k sell is a buy
Given the recent hires and news flow from Exscientia I would think they are close to announcing a listing. This stock will be very cheap when that day comes.
https://www.exscientia.ai/news-insights/exscientia-andthe-university-of-oxfordannounce-partnership
Thanks my esteemed friend. It is clear we are aligned with several stocks most notably Barkby.
Stay well.