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Sorry, but when folk talk of holding shares as there is chances of a takeover,it smacks of desperation.Example is ITV,being talked up as a takeover for many years. A bargain at less than £1.50. no one interested when price below 60p.. Fevertree a superior company, agreed but, in present financial climate no buyers even is present sp crashes.
Yes cheap. The market for non-alcoholic is growing, plus middle Eastern want good brands so massive market.
The company is set up and has string brand. It's a cheap M&A deal ready to be done and have an established business to yield consistent profits for years to come.
Well I'm a holder so I guess I must feel they are "good value" but "cheap"?
I'm not so sure, unless you mean relative to what they used to be.
Could see a big USA or Saudi company buy these guys up while cheap.
Current market downturn is temporary (couple of years), so getting the brand and working on global expansion ready for the markets to swing back up.
I dare say a few Fever investors are familiar with the song of the same title.
Fever - originally by Peggy Lee
Covered by Elvis in 1960
And sung live in Aloha From Hawaii in 1973.
It’s a cool song with ultra cool lyrics - the kind that plays in the background of speakeasies over gin & tonics and other mixers.
I haven’t owned a television for years
And know nothing of Fevertree’s publicity campaigns
But haven’t they missed a trick there?
A TV advert (or a series of them) playing out to various versions of Fever. Maybe Baz Luhrmann could produce them
It may help to reinvigorate Fevertree’s flagging fortunes.
Simon
“However FEVR has undeniably established itself as a premium brand, is a good product equal to or better than Schweppes.”
I wouldn’t put Fever on the same level as Schweppes. I think if there were blind-tasting en masse between the two Schweppes would be the choice of the majority.
Fever was always a repackaged jar of jam in a different jar (a glass one) and their marketing department also perpetrated that idiot’s myth why anyone would use any other brand except Fever to mix with expensive spirits. A myth parroted ad infinitum by those with a single brain cell who are too stupid to see past the hype. And a cliche I’ve heard many times personally from the intellectually challenged.
I think the penny’s dropped regarding Fever’s self-allusion to superior quality, and that’s left the shareprice exposed. Exposed to reality - and that’s why I believe Fever will fall to £5.
As for getting taken over - why would a global brand take an upstart lemonade manufacturer over when they have superior brands of their own. Or alternately just concoct a new brand along the same lines to compete directly
As a worse case scenario i could see Fevertree going the same way as Blockbuster. Fashions come and go and in my view Fever have lost their appeal - which was after all only built on a myth.
https://citywire.com/funds-insider/news/expert-view-fever-tree-direct-line-ssp-dwf-and-hill/a2392711 provides a decent roundup of these companies. I own shares in FEVR and HILS
Looks like the panic sell has been put to bed and normal business resumed.
This is a good company.
Acker
nm
And confirmation that another decent purchase by a Director today.
Toff, I think you've gone over the top with your criticisms. Yes, the Blackrock shorting at a big 4.71% does not bode well in the short term, granted. However FEVR has undeniably established itself as a premium brand, is a good product equal to or better than Schweppes. It has a good business model too for 'normal' times. I now see it as fair value and I would not be surprised to see one of the big boys taking a look at it and a complimentary product. Having said that I am hesitant to buy at this point due to Blackrock's instincts. They are no fools in this area.
I respect your opinion Alas- Smith. Why the abuse "Absolute tripe" such remarks reduce the integrity of your opinions. Grow up man,Aggressive comments suggest you have a personal problem. This is a message board, not a my p....s is bigger than yours site.
Absolute tripe, ironknut.
The RNS published on Friday drew attention to labour shortage as well as glass bottling supply which will impact on the margins. The managers do not expect this to affect revenuve but to affect profits which have been marked down. The region for growth is US and Europe where theses are building very strongly.
I fully expect the share price to settle down over the next few weeks and months to mark time and consolidate at or close to 1000p. We are basically back to the same point we were in March 2020, a few painful months ahead with inflation and cost of living crisis in focus, but fundamentally, it is a sound company on a steep growth curve and managers confident to add shares in aggressive spends.
Those who stated the sp to be grossly over valued have been proved correct. a sp below £10 reflects the true value. i expect a valuation of about £9 to be a steady one for some time. Those of us foolish enough to buy in higher must pay the price of believing the hype. For some time the stock market clearly totally miscalculated the value of Fevertree. They often have no idea.
The FEVR valuation has always been a discussion point. I first bought in 2016 at c.500p when a lot of people were saying it was far too expensive, it then went on to almost 4000p. Clearly the story's changed and growth has slowed, margins are tighter with inflation and costs increases. The valuation conversation will likely continue forever. Inflation will no doubt create volatility in the short term. But FEVR has always seemed to be a well run company with no debt and cash generative. The brand is strong and still defines the premium mixer category. However good Schweppes' premium products are or become, i just can't see a brand reversal. Short term there are challenges, but long term I like FEVR. All IMHO.
Investors piling back in
Toff, if Schweppes is a superior product then why would anyone keep buying Fevertree? As the latest update says sales continue to grow. The idea it's because of advertising is laughable, as Schweppes is owned by the masters of advertising, Coca Cola. The truth is if people are buying an expensive spirit they don't want to drown it in something cheap with artificial sweeteners from a plastic bottle. That demand is not going to dissappear, even in a recession.
Just basic arithmetic, draws the conclusion that the share was massively oversold on Friday. Thereafter poor sentiment can only be argued in relation to transitory issues. Underlying this, sales continue to grow and the brand continues to consolidate its global status. Shorts have got to be closed at some point. I can see profit being taken in this regard, as they look for better opportunities.
Happy to bet against it and have.
The main issue with Fevertree has always been its obscenely high valuation. Markets rarely value shares fairly - stocks either get overbought or oversold. The old idiot’s cliche oft-quoted from the Trading Manual For Dummies that the market is always right is erroneous in the extreme.
But sooner or later these market darlings collide with reality and fall back to earth (Ocado being another prime example)
Needless to say Fevertree’s obscene valuation attracted the attention of professional shorters.
Blackrock investment management alone has a 4 percent short out. Millennium International Management also has a hefty short position - the list is endless. Sickly wildebeest are easy meat and will always attract a plethora of predators.
In my view Fevertree still has a long way to fall. And I don’t see any of the mass shorts being closed - so I assume they agree. If anything Friday’s profit warning will amplify short interest.
£5 by the end of next week?
I wouldn’t bet against it.
Lots pf waffle from Toff.
Feverdrinks as a brand and products that is wanted year round.
Low price could encourage predators like Diageo to attempt to buy or Nestle .
Expect rebound , as the company is robust and will sort its US labour shortage
ToffAppleton1,
There are some comparable and possibly better Tonics out there but Schweppes is definitely not one of them !
You are correct with your view a company that makes a type of lemonade could never be a good investment. In 1982 the Coca Cola group share price was 76 cents today it is $62.50. Pepsi Co share price in 1982 was $2.17 today it is $171.12.
With deep pockets and big marketing budgets I would think both of these would be likely suitors for Fevertree
It could disappear but I think that's unlikely - I think what is more likely is it continues to lead the market, albeit growing at a much slower rate, with lower margins going forward as it has to compete more to keep cost down. This will ultimately impact valuation multiple etc. Valuation is likely to come back a bit further in my view. This for me is an excellent buy - just not at the current price. No hurry to get in. Let's see how the next 6-12 months pan out and reassess the situation.
I don’t consider a company that makes a new type of lemonade as a good investment. Fevertree was always a gimmick, one which bears some resemblances to cryptocurrencies.
The only premium thing about it is the price.
With superior brands such as Swheppes selling for less why would anyone pay more for an inferior product.
Fevertree’s gambit relied on intensive market campaigning, which is costly, to convince gullible shoppers that their brand of lemonade was worth double or treble that of its rivals.
Fevertree could all be forgotten about in a couple of years. The brand isn’t strong enough to weather a downturn. I’m tipping it to go the same way as Colt 45. In an era of hyper inflation cost-conscious consumers have woken up to the fact that paying treble the market rate for lemonade isn’t such a good idea.
CEO and Chairman of BOD both buying big at this price is always a good sign. They obviously believe these headwinds are transitory.