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That comment about buying at 2p didn't age too well Bankruptcy (very apt) you should have waited until the 0.50p.
Must admit it isn't looking so good from a market perspective though! So I will limit my enthusiasm for investing at 0.5p....Never the less I will take a punt at 0.5p!
Get very well paid just being a member of this BoD . Not impressed no matter what they might say . Invested in another dog here it seems .
SP is 1.6p which is 25% of NAV.........Personally I am glad to have taken a position at 2p odd......can see it turning around in the next year or, sooner on positive news....and if the conversion occurs I'll take some more.....life's a risk!
Actually checking the balance sheet from 1 Aug results RNS, Fulcrum have zero debt - a large chunk of the last fund raising was used to pay it off. It looks to me like they need the extra cash for working capital which is either because the contracting business is screwed up or they are still funding new assets which ultimately will be sold to ESP. Don't really understand why they haven't just sold the £20 million plus of commercial gas pipeline assets that they have. Have to hope the newish management know what they are doing (same as I hoped Kane would never miss a penalty)
Echo. A brave move. If the SP goes sub 1p then I would not be surprised to see a re-rate. Say 10 for 1. It would bring the SP back into a trading range of 10p, reduce volatility and reduce the dilution if they issue more stock. Doesn't improve the performance though and it will open the door for more losses. I have seen it happen several times & been caught once (with Rare Earth Metals that became KDNC).
A good bit of analysis pip
I was invested here many moons ago and sold once I broke even thank god
But this is very much on my radar now
No way I’m buying at the current level but with a m/c of 6 million this’ll be worth a punt (I think) when its sub 1p
Bankrupty. I do not fully understand your strategy. My interpretation is that you propose to buy now at say .01p so you can qualify for the fundraise later at .05p. Bringing your average down. However that assumes the conversion rate will be .05p when the RNS states it could be "the lower of the volume weighted average market value of the Company's Ordinary Shares in the 5 trading days immediately preceding the date of the conversion". The RNS paragraph excludes the term "whichever is the higher/lower amount". FCRM shares were issued at a nominal value of .001p (one tenth of a penny) so existing shares could fall sub 1p. My interpretation of your strategy is resting on the assumption the company shares will be worth .05p in 1 year and if they are not your investment, (money down for a whole year!) will be underwater - there are easier ways of making money with much less risk?
Will FCRM be worth .05p in 1 year? Look at the facts:
Operating profit: 2018: £6.89m, 2019: £6.13m, 2020: -£2.10m, 2021: £-11.17m, 2022: -£13.69m
Earnings/share: 2018: 3.61p, 2019: 2.25p, 2020: 0.68p, 2021: -4.49p, 2022: -5.52p
According to the RNS the £6m loan comes with a 20% 'arrangement fee', 6% interest if not taken and 20% interest if taken. So £1.2m arrangement fee for a company already £13.69m in debt and a further £360,000 on top just to look at it on the balance sheet. Furthermore the advance is not being used to pay down debt, it is to allow the company to stop and think a way out of the mess... As soon as they touch it the 20% interest kicks in. FCRM have been given a superficial loan of £6m but £2.4m of that will be lost to arrangement & interest. So really £3.6m loaded onto the growing debt pile with no material benefit.... that is some seriously expensive navel gazing?
Taking in all of this suggests FCRM achieving .05p/share is going to require some pretty imaginative, and very lucrative, activity.
Obviously just my own views. I don't have FCRM in my portfolio - I sold in 2019 not long after the dividend was cut and the downturn in profits became consolidated. I stay engaged because I want to see where this is all going and who picks up the infrastructure pieces.
Jab1tt
Looks like you and Pip were correct. Is heading to that 1p zone and no-one is touching it with a barge pole ha
Here we go .....
Thanks for the explanation Pip.
Would not touch it with a barge pole now.
Pity. It seemed at the time they were in all the the right areas.
Cheers Pip56..... very helpful....who knows maybe the carrot of possible 0.5p for us P.I.s to participate?? and if we don't then they will be justified in increasing their ownership far beyond 30% x 2.....but the slowly slowly catchy monkey theory says pay 2p to participate now and then get what you can at 0.5p to average down to say e.g. 1p? .....our major shareholders/lenders won't be averaging anywhere near 1p......so this is my strategy?? a punt!
I was invested in FCRM and made a very small profit in Sept selling out in the 7p range.....so it's a pure gamble for me now....but am I prepared to properly invest at 0.5p???? .....that's the big conundrum? Is it just the big design to enrich "them"?? and de-rich moi?
Sorry but I think you have read this wrong. Bayford and Harwood bought in when the SP was 30p plus and was returning a dividend. They then used the company for their own benefit by moving it into domestic meters in support of their own energy business. That venture failed and the SP has plummeted. To support losses they took bank loans. The 12p fund raise for acquisitions was verging on fraudulent as it was used to pay off debt - they now say this could not have been predicted. All income from the gas business has gone into paying debt and now it looks as though the fixed rate bank loans have been called in - the creditors have had enough.
So Bayford and Harwood have pulled a flanker.... they have loaned FCRM £6m from their own pockets at 6% interest if not taken and a whopping 20% if it is! This keeps FCRM under water and it ensures they get 20% income on their £6m. For their part the non-exec directors are turning a blind eye to previous agreements that neither Harwood or Bayford would break the 30% share threshold. So to be clear. FCRM is now £6m under and all income will be used to service that debt, directly into the pockets of Bayford & Harwood. It's a very clever cash cow - where else will they get 20% for doing nothing. If the debt is not paid off both parties will receive more shares so yet more dilution in share value and they increase ownership over the assets.
Currently 2p heading south rapidly and soon to be sub 1p. Utter madness to even contemplate getting involved.
further to my post at 1159hrs.......so I need to have a position to be able to participate on the 0.5p......so bought in today....happy to be corrected if I'm seeing it all wrong......indeed need to be corrected if I have it wrong...lol
I am completely in the dark here. Can anyone explain to me why they will receive £49 mill from ES pipelines , when the market cap is £8 mil. How much debt do they have?
I think a takeover is the best pi’s can hope for. But what price would be most beneficial for all?
This has been a horror show of a company
I’m not holding, I sold soon after Norwood got involved, they’re nothing more than vampires imo
at the end of the day our two lenders/shareholder groups etc. have paid a lot more for the 60% of the company they have so far and with the extra now converted at 0.5p and the ability for us to also participate at 0.5p probably...i think it makes sense to take a position today at 2pish.....personally think that if the company has enough funds now, with the previous debt reduced and the new facility converted to equity....then 2023 might prove small profitable or if not then 2024 and the SP will recover pretty well then....DYOR and GLA
Seems ripe for a sell off to me .
I agree. It was the right mix and included everything a 'modern' investor would be looking for. Green credentials (check), Infrastructure (check), Electric Vehicle (check). But as you say, they became distracted and greedy. WTF was the diversion into domestic meters all about? Utter garbage and downhill from that moment on.
Said it before and maintain the view. There is a massive write down here but if the new CEO can get the bickering parties to agree a common purpose there is great potential here.
I would add that without the necessary ppl in place - y did daren Harris walk away?
BOD has not the nous . Was supposed to be a kill - Turner got it wrong and Mills similarly.
Greedy Bs ruined this
Looks like the end game.
Wonderful mix with the right ppl.
GREEDY BS.
"Here for the takeover".....Wishful thinking is not a strategy! There are 4 realistic options on the table.
1) The company will recover, pay off debts and the sp will grow back.
2) Debts will drag the company down and receivership beckons.
3) A white knight will ride in and rescue the company. Shareholders receive a premium to the sp.
4) Turner & Harwood do a handshake and take the company into private ownership as previously intended. Shareholders get the current sp value with a take it or leave it offer.
Of these 2 and 4 are the most likely. Given the relative positions of the major shareholders and the company debt, option 3 is less likely. Option 1 is possible but a combination of winter (not good for groundworks) and a recession make the next 6 months challenging - a recovery is unlikely.
There are options other than a company takeover. In the unlikely event that were to happen it would likely be at the current sp given the poor company performance and debt.
Well I am here fo the takeover! It can & will happen imho. You have been negative of FCRM for a long time & rightly so....
BUT this is on it's arse & ripe for the picking. Let's see!
Cut/paste from the RNS: "Neither Harwood nor Bayford will be permitted to make a general offer for the Company's shares unless the offer is recommended by the independent directors and neither must take any action which would trigger an obligation to make a mandatory offer (whether under the Company's Articles of Association or under the Code and whether or not the Code applies)."
So the three main bodies with defining interests - Harwood & Bayford are limited in their actions for so long as they both have greater than 10% value of the shares. They not only cancel each other out but they hold nigh on 60% of the equity. The balance is held by Killik - a stockbroker - and by all other parties such as the BoD and the private shareholders who see something positive in this debt riddled mess.
So your regular & shrill declarations of an imminent takeover require the agreement and complicit actions of either Turner/Bayford and/or Harwood in breaking their legal agreement. It also requires one or other to give up their holdings some of which were accumulated when the sp was around 40p+ and in the 12p fundraise. If you see a third party lurking in the shadows they will still have to buy up a sufficient holding to make an offer - in the absence of a threshold declaration RNS that clearly is neither happening or possible.
Finally the 'management coming good' .... repeated losses, repeated profit warnings, increasing debt. Never mind what the share price is doing, just look at the balance sheet and the words they are using in the RNS. This company is a slow motion train crash heading for administration or a break up. But to use your own words "In My Honest Opinion"
Hi Pip I didn't know this constraint was in place! Someone is picking these if it's not these two then who......! Not me I am loaded & feel this could be a very nice recovery play! Yes things need to change but feel the management are fully behind this one coming good. More news required but happy to hold.