The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Zengah
No, I will nit be buying this year .
Not until I know the outstanding risks I am not comfortable have been addressed .
Interesting Citadel sold , hell a lot of shares . Cannot believe all PIs bought them ?
Co needs to bring some serious positive news flow to enable the CEO to sell 30m odd shares to
Market or an institution (s) .
We have not had a rise with this huge volume this time either .
Good day today. Building momentum. Looking good for the week.
DavidLaw,
Very good post. Totally agree with you on that...I have been saying this for a few weeks now . It has calmed down here since the twitter herd has left.
I think give or take 2 or 3p is not a big deal but can be if you are looking to buy a large amount. Maybe drip buying on the way down from here, or on the way up if it does indeed reach 8p again.
All projects have issues with meeting targets, i get that. But the communications and RNS' are so poor with regards to informing shareholders of the status of parts of the project, ppl are second guessing. Even now videos tell the finer details which CEO leaves out in the RNS'
BFS study will take longer than 6 months..
"Should take about 6 months given a fair wind"...there is only resistance with Covid at the moment..do not see any fair winds as the CEO puts it
There are risks with further dilution and target times.
The biggest thing for me in the next 6 months is the install of the electric furnace and power line. should be no excuses on that side again.
I will continue to follow the story.
oilmanmike I'm not suggesting the SP will only trend down, I expect as news about the small project trickles out there's upward movement as retail investors wrongly link the small project to the potential $2bn project.
There's also some strong ramping on Twitter as well, so there's bound to be clueless retail investors buying in expecting fast returns when this share is a minimum 6 month hold for significant gain.
With no new major investors can you see the SP going on a consistent growth spurt (15p+ and stay there over the next 6 months) only on small project news and retail investors buying in for the wrong reason?
I've seen two recent videos from the CEO mentioning 6 months in relation to the feasibility study, before these videos there was mention of Covid related delays with the study in a trading update, but no timeframe. Remember the study was due out now, so this is a major delay of 6 months and this is new bad news for current investors. I assume a lot of current shareholders bought expecting the study to be released now and some won't be happy at a 6 month delay and could sell.
From a few days ago: https://vimeo.com/472493935 (6 mins in)
"Of course, talking of the main project, that is the reason we’re in business, that’s what gives us our $2 billion of NPV and the feasibility study is what we’re working on so very difficult to be exact with the timing of feasibility studies, but over the next six months we should have some significant news flow."
The other from the 21st of October: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3D-iKAXidRs (8 mins 30 secs in)
"Should take about 6 months given a fair wind".
6 months is a long time to wait before the main project truly starts.
They have to raise $100M for the main project and looks like major investors won't invest without the upgraded study, so the real start of the main project is in limbo for 6 months. Of course the new study could be bad news, so those investing before the release are taking a big risk.
The CEO is currently pushing the share via interviews, why when nothing major is happening for 6 months on the main project? Is it to try to push the SP up in case they have to dilute shares again to pay for the main project and/or to get through the next 6 months?
The CEO said back in January (I think it was January) dilution was unlikely because they can carry a lot of debt, but then diluted twice this year (new shares sold at 6.5p and 8p).
From my perspective I can take my time waiting for a lower entry point when the news flow decreases. I'm looking for close to 8p (could have bought in for 9p yesterday), but could reassess if I'm wrong: maybe 10p will become the new bottom over the next 6 months and I'll pay 10p+ in late January so I don't miss the feasibility study.
To end on a positive note, assuming the feasibility study confirms the potential $2bn project I see the SP going up multiple times, so see those who hold through 2020, 2021... will do well.
David was interested to read your news vacuum on big project with all the good news on the smaller project.
There is however a flaw in your argument which is that good news for the smaller project is clearly good news
for the funding of the 100% owned Big project. This will lead to significantly less dilution of equity.
Yes DavidLaw
on FAR recent sp movement been for small or big mining project, my eye have been looking always at the early September day rise high to 16p closing at 12p, as resistance level.
So in my mind considering that big Bala project was/is at best many months away and that current operation, don't justify a price higher than previous early September range, I was lucky to sell a decent profit . I would have hold a bit longer if wasn't for late rns that created in me some sort of uncertainty.
Price since then has come down hence my re-entry, with the hope that at list even if not making profit, production will keep rising. Finger crossed 8p should hold with potential to go back to 13p or higher is decent production is maintained.
It seems to me that all news bad or good are out, including BFS no ready till next year and same for final connection to electric grid. Also there may be some more positive rns on more small operational jobs completions. In the other hand I can see some more shares been issued not this year but likely next year, but who knows at what price and possibly small amount. Then there is always the potential of a rise in vanadium price, if we all agree that today prices are below long time trend.
On the US market I too invest there some time, made good profits on Biopharms working on vaccine, but right now I am trying to stay away in any meaningful way, there is a correction going on and possibly the only shares that may hold the price are there small cap companies like FAR.
If you really like take a chance in US have a look at AlphProTech, bought and sold few times but is also good to hold. RSN coming out 5th November or there about with 3Q results that should be good, but is just after the election so risks attached.
LuckyLuciano Yep, it's like trying to catch a bouncing ball just as it hits the floor, but you have to guess where the floor is :-)
I respect your approach, you know you could be sitting on a loss for maybe 6 months before it pops on the main feasibility study news. As long as the FS is good news you make money.
If I'm wrong about the FS timing OR the less important news about the small project is enough to keep the SP above 10p until the FS is out, I miss out on a lowish price and have to buy in at a higher price.
I'm sure many retail investors thought the recent rise was the start of the big one, but detailed research would have made them realise it's good news about a minor project. Didn't help with the ramping on Twitter, there's one Twitter user in particular who must be sitting on a big loss (bought a LOT of shares recently) and treats every price move as an excuse to ramp! Every move up is the BIG one, every move down is a bargain so get in before it's too late!
I lost a nice chunk of my recent profits over the past few days (buying US stocks just before an election, DOH!!!), not going to try to ramp people into buying just because I bought at the wrong time: I could as well, I control 2 dozen Twitter accounts with about 1/4 of a million followers and my day job is online marketing, so would be easy to do.
I am back in.
Can't disagree with DavidLaw strategy the only point is that if the 8p will never be reached but in stead is 8.3p you may lose the train. In other words is very difficult to pick the bottom, but then again it could go down to 7p. I am in with small investment an will average down or top up depending on news flow. But have shared my investment on the vanadium space by buying also some Vanaviumcorp Res. shares today. Wanted to do it 2 days ago but I was greedy and put an order at C$ 0.045 that was never filled now had to buy C$ at 0.06 .
Many buys at 100000 were done during last week and beginning of this week at over 11. Will hold till more news. Sellers selling out. Each to their own
Many 100000 plus buys were bought last week and beginning of this week. Many have not sold out. Many were bought at over 11p. Sellers can sellout. Will hold till more news.
Bobat123 I don't see the SP climbing in a sustainable way in the near term, so will wait for a bigger dip. Most shareholders won't have seen the end of https://vimeo.com/472493935 where at 6mins he says:
"very difficult to be exact with the feasibility study, but over the next 6 months should have significant news flow".
A potential delay of up to 6 months for the FS (FS was expected now) is a long time to wait for confirmation that the big $2bn project is a go. I doubt any big investors will get in before the FS is released, so it's mostly us lowly retail investors buying a few thousand £s worth of shares and we tend to move on quickly to the next big thing when there's a delay.
I can hold on a few weeks, if there's no news or the news is minor (not about the FS) the SP is likely to remain around 9-10p with the odd jump/dip. Currently putting in a limit order for 25,000 shares at 8p each morning, I might get lucky if short-term interest wanes with no news.
The mistake retail investors have made here is treating the recent news like they are major events (I almost made the same mistake). All the good news is related to the small project which is worth less than $100M, it has little impact on the big $2bn project. Most of the bad news (DELAYS) is about the big project!
Think about it, if the FS confirms it's a $2bn project FAR will have no problems finding funding to pay for the project, they won't need the small project. I see the small project as a fallback if everything goes wrong with the big project, in some respects it's a little worrying they feel the need to keep spending money on the small project.
David the price is below 10. This is what you have wanted. Have you bought in?
Bobat123 You can't read anything from such low volume, in the first hour after open it's less than £20,000 in buys/sells. Most are buys, but as you would expect it's had no impact on the SP.
It's pointless ramping here, the forum activity is way too low to have an impact.
More buys then sells yesterday as well. Some peeps still selling. Added more.