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first news is that the eso asset stripping list is almost here (this is from the paid version of rus bloomberg analog):
moscow. february 9th 2024. interfax - the first edition of the list of economically significant organizations (ezo) may be published as early as february 2024, first deputy minister of economic development of the russian federation ilya torosov told interfax on the sidelines of the all-russian debt restructuring forum organized at the site of the chamber of commerce and industry of the russian federation.
"the first stage is less than ten (companies)," said torosov, specifying the number of organizations that will be included in this version of the document.
earlier, officials explained that the document would not be static, the list could be adjusted and supplemented.
in russian legislation, mention of ezo appeared in the summer of 2023 after the adoption of law no. 470-fz, which gave the government the authority to form a list of such organizations. the document has not been published yet.
the status of ezo allows their russian beneficiaries to obtain shares and assets of such companies in direct ownership through the court, excluding foreign holding structures (ihcs) from the chain of ownership, or transfer the right to them to someone else.
second news:
i don’t want to be in politics but from what i saw in uk, a lot of people think that the sanctions will end as the hot war ends. i honestly don’t think so. russian state media and top officials post things like this all day long (this one is medvedev): russia threatens to unleash ‘entire ****nal on london if it loses war in ukraine’. i seriously doubt that the sanctions will be lifted until a mayor change in russia, which is at least in 2042 when putin might step down.
third news: polymetal plc sold it’s russian assets. there is a strange configuration, but in the end the sale is for the debt and 300 mln usd, so in essence the money for the plc shareholders is very low, almost zero for 60% of the plc company’s assets. as you might guess they sold it to an absolutely (wink) unrelated russian guy. i honestly think evraz plc would have done the same if not for the convenient eso law.
buying/selling evraz plc shares. if you want to sell write me at chinaadr2021 at yandex.ru you must have the paper certificate. price is 0.8 gbp. minimum amount 8000 shares. only !sane! people. i am a rus citizen so i plan to have my shares esoed, otherwise i would run. if the eso list with evraz plc in it is released, then i don’t buy and the new shares are a zero to me from that moment.
As always, you miss out facts that don’t suit you. The debt was $3.4 BILLION, so the total value of the deal was US$3.69 billion. I’m not saying that was good or bad, just that it’s a very different story.
I make that about $6 per share (560,000,000 shares issued) and taking into account the Kaz holding makes it nearer $9 per share.
Jotom750: The Rus business of Polymetal PLC is out and it is sold exactly as I wrote "for the debt and 300 mln usd", which leaves Poly with a KZ business worth in my view 2 bln (more or less 5 ebitda) and 300 mln usd cash. That is not bad, but I bet not as good as people thought the sale price of the Rus assets would be. I would not buy Polymetal PLC now because I don't believe in gold. But if you believe - the KZ assets left seem to be safe with the new owner and in a safer jurisdiction like the KZ. May be gold should have a higher ev/ebitda mult than steel or "dirty" coal after all), so at ev/ebitda 10 it should be $9 per share, but Barrick is like 6-7 ev/ebitda. I have zero Poly shares and don't buy or sell any, this is just a view. Evraz Plc situation is way-way worse than Polymetal's for foreign shareholders. Here you at least got the Kazakhstan part of the business that is worth something, in Evraz the out-of-Russia (Canada, etc.) part of the business is a zero.
"The Rus business of Polymetal PLC is out and it is sold exactly as I wrote "for the debt and 300 mln usd"
Though you may not have actually lied, you did intentionally omit the most important piece of information. The fact that they were also taking over the debt total of $3.5 Billion. This then allows one to estimate a total value of the deal, and by default an approxamate valuation for the whole company of Polymetal compared to a pre war price. This comparison gives a present day value of about 50% of the pre war price. Clearly this does not suit your paltry Evraz offer. (Obviously both companies are very different, so investors should do their own due dilligence with respect to risk/reward).
All here realise why you did that. Let others make up their own minds now they have the full picture.
I'm sure you have no problem with that.
'the status of ezo allows their russian beneficiaries to obtain shares and assets of such companies in direct ownership through the court, excluding foreign holding structures (ihcs) from the chain of ownership, or transfer the right to them to someone else.'
If this were to happen Russia would basically shut themselves out of the international markets as no sane investor would never feel their money safe in a Russian asset again. I still don't see legally how it can stack up.
WolfofWarks wrote "If this were to happen Russia would basically shut themselves out "
the Gov in Russia refers to foreign investors as pigeons who would fly, do a circle or two, and come right back. Argentina is defaulting on its debt every 10 to 20 years and still investors buy it's new bonds every time as if nothing has happened. Also the ESO law is a retaliation measure for the seized Rus reserves as they see it.
But Russian domestic businesses access the international markets though right?
But Russian domestic businesses access the international markets though right?
Russia is selling almost only commodities (oil, gas, wheat, steal, coal), so it is impossible to sanction, since the market is huge and global and a lot of the market is China alone. Way bigger problem is imports since the domestic production of complicated products within Russia is very low.
Where do businesses in Russia get their capital from?
Where do businesses in Russia get their capital from?
from Russian banks. It is a rather small market, but the economy is also not big and most of it was build by the ancient Soviet civilization and later stolen by the oligarchs so they basically got the assets for free and don't really need any capital.
Where do those Russian banks get their money from? Surely the whole economy isn't run by oligarchs. What about independent businesses< shopkeepers, etc.
AndreyAAA your offer price seems to have gone down ?
No the price I offer for Evraz shares is 1 usd/0,8 gbp as it was, I have bought a lot of people, now in Egypt on vacation, if more people want to sell - write me at chinaadr2021 at yandex.ru minimum 8000 shares, sanity and paper certificate
The Bull..it continues????
ANDREYAAA, Were you able to watch Navalnay's funeral today live from your hotel in Egypt?