Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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You guys have that wrong. Its not current sp x 8.6. Its the ebitda x 8.6 so $250m x 8.6, as an average.
$2.15 BILLION. I did say earlier today conservative is 8 x EBITDA. Can easily for 10-15 if they want to factor in an appreciating PD price or the additional 25m oz, on top of the 15m we will soon have.
Him saying $1bn is just based on flanks approval nothing to do with any Asset sale! If it does do that or even get to $700-800m then an uplift to $2bn plus for a sale is minor.
This is a major thing which sets the MT asset apart from anything else out there - "The Last Non Consolidated Palladium Play”
There's no 3rd or 2nd chance for a buyer, get it now or miss out!!
GLA
No it's not your average mine/assets. The MT side of things is complicated, not in production but has a EPCF contract in place with sinosteel to take it to production at an agreed processing rate
Open pit, very low cost and fast to production for someone like NN.
GLA
But is this your average mine? Didn't dimitry say this sets us apart or along those lines
So where the russian article says this - "the company’s EBITDA will reach $ 250 million after full production is reached."
The potential deal value is around $2.150 billion.
I apologise for any confusion with the earlier posted figure!.
GLA
"The study found that EBITDA multiples are highest for the information sector (11.1x) and the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector (8.6x)."
GLA
Correction - the EBITDA multiple
GLA
8.6x current share price is the market average deal factor for the mining sector -
https://www.bvresources.com/blogs/bvwire-news/2019/01/03/ebitda-multiples-by-industry-new-statistics-on-private-company-selling-prices
GLA
Because if its pt there's only one place they can get their filthy rich mitts on any high grade pd.......
Dito, any idea on the ratios? Is it pt or pd predominant do you know?
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/trending/s2xo4yrub39olgt6n8audg2
Link won't open(shrugs shoulders)
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/trending/s2xo4yrub39olgt6n8audg2- bob
Again just thinking out loud, does anyone know where the expected deficit will be met in 2025? Every article I've read is at least until then, so if it takes roughly 2 years to gain permit for the extra 25mil oz would you start applying for them now knowing that at the height of the deficit you've made 250mil plus you can negotiate for the extra ounces in a mega billion deal at the height of the scramble for new pd??
NN know we are a threat. So they will buy us out at some point to neutralise that threat. DS won’t let this go below a acceptable amount as he heavily invested too.
I'm hoping for more like £3 billion (fingers crossed)
I will be very surprised if It not NN in talks of taking it over. Since they so close as in same country. They want all control over PGM to control the market. But I bet they being cheeky trying to get it on the low but DS AND CS not having it. So talks continue.
What does 3.925 × 8.6 represent?
3.925 × 8.6 = 33.755p a share!.
When you look into things, a potential high sale price looks inevitable. All imho!
GLA
$1 billion equates to 28.5p per share
For those who did not see this earlier:
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4221391
Chrome does a good job of translating this.
The BoD are saying that they can make $250M per year once the mines are operational, so NorNickel or whoever will have to pay a lot for the assets.
That article in the Russian press is dynamite - if that gets publicity the price will rocket.
You'll also note how big the financial rewards of such rises are to Norilsk nickel, the article highlights them very well.
With financial benefits as described within that article being so huge to them, they will be all guns blazing towards acquiring russian palladium assets IMHO.
GLA
Good find.... I’m happy to add bit more. Top up anyone?