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why the share price drops , when the buys outweigh the sells by so much , could anybody please explain this , seen this happen when small diffrence between buys/sells but never like this ....can the market makers influence a share so much ????
After the large drop last week, there will be a few larger, perhaps institutional, investors still feeding in their sell offs. Once these dry up the demand should surely take this share much higher over the coming weeks. It surprising we haven’t seen a red day in the last 4/5 days. Shows good strength. With trades such as the £0.64m trade (250,000 shares) just bought @256.5, I am beginning to think the larger investors now have faith that they aren’t ‘catching a falling knife’ and a rise is expected from them. Even Brookers not intrinsically involved in ESURE are valuing the share at between 267p (lowest) to 300p (highest) in the latest broker updates.
One Ordinary buy trade of 550,000 Esure shares (£1,403m). Wouldn't call it 'ordinary', would you!?
The divi will be 2.5p: broken down as 1.8p 'normal' and 0.7p 'special'. The only reason its split out like this is due to the way its calculated: -50pc of taxed profits is considered the 'Normal' Divi element @ 1.8p -The special divid is 20pc of the taxed profits if its capital position remains as strong as it has been in recent years @ 0.7p The divi will be paid as one, and not two divis. The final divi (approx Mar 2104) is likely to be around 5 or 6p in total, based on the 1/3 interim, 2/3 full payment. Out of interest.... ESURE has a 50% stake in GoCompare. GoCompare is growing year on year and in March 2013 was considering a sale for between £275 and £450m. Grant Thornton were hired in early 2013 to conduct a strategic review and in March 2013 this was in its 'very early stages'. Nothing has made the news since: If GoCompare is sold for the valuation of around £400m then Esure will do very nicely indeed out of the deal, as will Esure's shareholders. Yet another reason to hold these shares over the coming months.
Will have a check. The inital ex divi date was 18th Sept and then corrected to 4th - With regard to the special divi i will get to the bottom of that and find out the full story there... Anyhow, the retrace was stopped in its tracks it appears a steady climb would, of course, be nice now. I rate this share at the moment, I really do. Enjoy the weekend.
There is indeed a Special and Interim ex-dividend date: 04 September; also - according to Hargreaves & Landsdown - there is a Special and Interim ex-divident date: 18 September. One pays out 18 Oct and the other on the 17th Oct. Look it up, if you doubt me. Esure has made mistakes about dividend dates before which they later corrected.
The ex divi date is the 4th of september. Read the bloody RNS from the company. I will link it for you: http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=ESUR&ArticleCode=3p59vqhz&ArticleHeadline=Further_re_Interim_Results it states: The interim dividend will be paid on 18 October 2013 to all holders of Ordinary Shares on the Register of Members at close of business on 6 September 2013. Therefor the ex-div date is the 4th. If you dont understand this i suggest you stop investing mate.
You will be able to see all ex-div/payment dates on Hargreaves & Landsdown web site. Enter Esur in search box then click under Company Information then look under Important dates. There's more than one div payment to come this year.
"Just to add, the ex-divi date isnt the 18th Sept. I believe its earlier in Sept. will check." Bit of an oxymoron statement, that.... I think you will find the 18th is correct.
Bloody hell. In final sentence: Even if the market gets itself confused and it drops a little more, I am convinced that the drop of 311p to 242p @ 22% is NOT going to be justified. LOL. Must try harder.
It alludes to the AA report in late July that confirmed: The average annual comprehensive car insurance quote fell to £594.84 this month, it said, down 9.8% from £659.53 last July - the biggest decrease since the AA insurance index began in 1994. its difficult to copy and paste on phone!
A few interesting points…. H1 report said: ''The UK personal lines motor market has seen an increase in price competitiveness as demonstrated in the recently published indices which show significant rate reductions. This has been most noticeable during the latter part of quarter two and into quarter three.... In light of market conditions, the Group now expects full year premium growth to be lower than that achieved in the first half of the year. However, the positive factors outlined above should serve substantially to mitigate any earnings impact from the lower premium growth.'' This is the part of the RNS that did the damage. It alludes to the AA report in late July that confirmed: ''In light of market conditions, the Group now expects full year premium growth to be lower than that achieved in the first half of the year. However, the positive factors outlined above should serve substantially to mitigate any earnings impact from the lower premium growth.'' Yes, it is a competitive market and revenue/premiums are dropping; but they are dropping for a few reasons: -Young (high ££premiums) drivers are now being driven out of the market: this is positive, yes average premiums are dropping because the more expensive drivers are being priced out, but so is risk and cost (young drivers are involved in 26% of car accidents – AA review) -There is a constant drive to reduce insurance claim costs; Referral fees being abolished in April (July 27th BBC news article) and an ongoing review of the insurance industry claims culture focusing on fraud (July 27th bbc news article – different than above reference) will help this industry lower its premiums whilst sustaining the profits. The idea of a drop in insurance premiums is not fully understood, because it’s a very recent change in market conditions, but lower revenue from premiums is absolutely fine when the cost of providing the cover decreases in proportion or even faster in comparison. The dividend is likely to be 1/3 interim and 2/3 full. The means that the dividends are going to be at least around 6p. This is 2.5% returns. Considering this was the other main reason for the drop, I still feel the market over-reacted. I myself purchased a few here today. Even if the market gets itself confused and it drops a little more, I am convinced that the drop of 311p to 242p @ 22% is going to be justified.
As I said; the Ex Divi data is early September., the 4th of September to be exact.
to be paid 17th oct....to all share holders at close...... on the 20th sept
Just to add, the ex divi date isnt the 18th Sept. I believe its earlier in Sept. will check. I agree, the fundamentals are there; the recovery from these positions are very unpredictable but using other examples (such as AZ electronics which also revealed a negative future warning, despit decent results earlier in 2013) the market does tend to over react and a re-rate can occur nicely in the following weeks. However, nobody knows - if i did I would have a Yatch in the Caribbean...
Read 235/265 as 230/235
So on your figures, I should sell at a loss real soon, wait for the sp to dive to 235/265, buy at the lowest price I can, and then wait for the sp to rise to 265p within three weeks... and perhaps sell - or not? (May I ask, are you posting from your yatch off the Bahama coast?)
Esure was running with a PE ratio of around 15 prior to these results; this suggested some decent growth would be expected by the market. Yes, it grown H1 2012 to H1 2013, but when ripping the figures apart and taking the H2 performance from 2012 this was actually comparable to H1 2013. Yes, there is seasonality, but the run rate of Half year performances actually saw a bit of stagnation. With this in mind, coupled with the 'Outlook' section of the RNS (which was shockingly negative for H2) then I believe that the annual 2013 performance is likely to be very similar to 2012 and will not sustain the H1 2012 to H1 2013 growth percentages. We would typically expect a company with consistent year on year growth to be PE of 11-13. Given EPS of 21.1p last year, and an assumption for 2013 to be around this value, I believe the share price 'should' be 235p to 275p. This is obviously only one side of the multifaceted story. 242p today; I would expect 265p within 3 weeks, a low of 230-235p may be seen.
they have been hit by the people / institutions who brought it for the dividends, fundamentals are not far off what they forecast and they are making loads of dosh, but they promised decent dividends and failed to deliver, hence why they have been beaten up. Should be a lesson for them, hire a decent PR team as well, to get them out this poo pile. If this had not been their first set of results, heads would have rolled....
1. Special dividend payment date: 17 October 2013. 2. Interim dividend payment date: 17 october 2013. 3. Special ex-dividend date: 18 September 2013. 4. Interim ex-dividend date: 18 September 2013.
I didn't factor in all the "maybees" that the Market mulled over before throwing their girlie toys out of the pram. Advert: Quickly needed: American, British screen writers/ Novelists - not soap opera script writers - for employment by Feds and Bank of England (BoE). Must be able to present the Bigger Picture. This will be a cowboy movie project - with stampeding of extra large herds of cows omitted. Please reply to Post box: 777. Of shares traded today: 71.86 bought.
This afternoon I was combing the ftse 250 for "fallers" (bargains) and seen this one down by a heafty 10.05%. I researched it immediately and couldn't believe how the market overreacted on the data Esure released today. Bought 10k right away at an unbelievable 252p. And with so many shares bought after close, I can see an even bigger buying trend tomorrow and - dare I say it - a bit of a spike. So up early tomorrow, ladies and gentlemen, for, hopefully, a roller coaster ride! And for those still thinking of buying or topping up, set a buy price with your broker tonight or failing that, set your alarms for 7.45...
Yes, i think this is a buy for sure. Why did they push the price down when there was so many buys after hours? Any ideas? Over £2 million worth was bought after close??
There has been hardly any posts to date since the IPO which was priced at the top end of expectations. However even so the SP reached a respectable 335 before this massive retrace. I think this it is a good time to buy but not a good omen for future IPOS.
fingers crossed time to buy a few more