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Days here yet, lots of dillution coming.
So Optiva Securities issues a brokers note, the same Optiva Securities that acts as a broker for Energy Pathway, so hardly independent.
£2m raised at the IPO, but gas production expected to start in LATE 2025. £2m ain't gonna last until late 2025 for both stages.
Stage 1 pre-field development will consume the £2m, stated in the Brokers note.
Stage 2 paid for via strategic industry or financial partner PLUS DEBT, so Optiva Securities, EPP's own brokers state in brokers note
Second equity funding of £21.5m during FY24 alone. Debt funding of £53m in the same year. Note, the debt taking 18 month to pay back FROM FIRST FLOW.
Between now and the end of 2025 this is surely going to be diluted to an inch of it's life with £53m debt funding and £21.5m second equity funding in FY24 alone. What about dilution in 2025 before the first gas flows at the earliest end of 2025??
24p near term price, lol, really folks?
Update
IPO'd at 4p, closed yesterday at 1.95p.
You got to chuckle, this is going to need £millions more before gas starts flowing in late 2025. Just wait for the next (1p??) placing, which IMHO, will be along before you know it. Noted the broker themselves are saying "Stage 1 pre-field development will consume the £2m." and "Second equity funding of £21.5m during FY24 alone."
Agree with you seen it sooo many times on AIM. Deja vu.
EnergyPathways tweet yesterday stated
"EnergyPathways continues to engage with all relevant authorities and stakeholders as it seeks to outline its strategic vision"
It's a long and expensive way from 'outlining your strategic vision' to pumping gas out of the ground in late 2025.
Anyone else feel a lot of dilution will take place before the gas flows in late 2025?
Dilution is a certainty until or unless they say otherwise. Don't have a penny in here yet as too hot to handle. Best wait it out a bit as you say 18 months til production that's a lifetime on AIM.
Down over 11% today, anyone else feel that the placing / dilution is coming soon, or is it just me?
Agree to hot to handle currently. IPO's at 4p and now sub 2p at 1.95p. Broker report states IPO money will be gone in first phase.
Today's lumpy sells of 300,00, 250,000, 150,000, 100,000 may well be, in my opinion, forward selling from the placing. What do you think?
Good time to average down.
Hard to call but but if there's a placing then would expect something by end of next week. The quicker the better, as longer they'll leave it, the harder it gets as price drifts.
Get placing out of the way then roll the news imo
I'll be waiting for the placement and resultant (I expect) drop in sp.
Definitely a placing just wish I knew when or at what price. They'll have no choice as no cash, but after placing could be worth buying in increments.
States in today's RNS
"Discussions are progressing well on both debt and equity financing"
They've just told everyone they are talking about how to finance the company, doesn't take much to work out the options.
Between 14:42:20 and 14:54:23 more lumpy sells 150,000, 100,000 x 2, etc etc. Another 100,000 sell just gone through, my own opinion is these are forward selling, combined with today's RNS "Discussions are progressing well on both debt and equity financing"
Will those dumping today be buying back in sub 1p?
I think the sells are indicative of an expectation of heavily discounted placing. Yes sub 1p is very likey in my view. Best to sit this out and watch from the sidelines.
As to one of your posts sausage they need over £20million in equity finance in 2024 alone, Is that stated in admission doc?
Line in the results today...
"However the Group's ability to meet future operational objectives through to first production of gas from the Marram Gas Project will be reliant on raising further finance."
It's been said so many times before, first gas as per the Optiva brokers report, late 2025. EPP have admitted they need to raise further finance before first gas production.
Sausageonstick regarding funding I believe it says they need £70-£100million but cannot find how much of that will be split via placing and debt.
Do you know?
The Optiva brokers notes seems to have gone from EPP X feed. I wonder why 🤣🤣 but I copied the following out of it
Second equity funding of £21.5m during FY24 alone. Debt funding of £53m in the same year.
What I also got from the broker note was
£2m raised at the IPO, but gas production expected to start in LATE 2025.
Stage 1 pre-field development will consume the £2m, stated in the Brokers note.
Stage 2 paid for via strategic industry or financial partner PLUS DEBT, so Optiva Securities, EPP's own brokers state in brokers note
Second equity funding of £21.5m during FY24 alone. Debt funding of £53m in the same year. Note, the debt taking 18 month to pay back FROM FIRST FLOW.
IPO'd at 4p, currently 2.5p.
So in answer to your question Optiva have stated that EPP need £74,500,000 in FY24.
Correction on the current price, down 2% to 2.45p
Are people sitting on the side lines until the £21,500,000 equity funding (Optiva stated) has been sorted?
Will be interesting to see what interest rate they secure on the £53,000,000 (Optiva stated) debt?