London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Krok,
Your know stuff and are somewhat local.
The gas price has precipitated a change in you opinion of ENW prospects this year.?
I agree 60p would make sense with prices already > 2018. Means $20m a quarter in the bank for ENW.
Recent interest in JKX will perhaps kick start some interest here next week.
Are you already back holding big here or not?
Despite all the problems production is rising year on year. Things here look steady compared to JKX.
ThE gas price issue in the Ukraine: is that a direct result fo supply restriction from Russia. OR are there issues in Russia with prices spiralling there. I wonder as Prices in Europe seem to be because partially at least because of restricted Russia supply. With Nord stream 2 coming on line soon things might change in Europe but not Ukraine?
Hey, OfficerFigby
I am in, both in ENW and JKX. Approximately 50/50 currently, given most recent increase in JKX
Both stocks are at ridiculously low levels, given where gas prices are. ENW should trade at 60p, as a bare minimum
We should get 6 months financials any time soon, hopefully, this week. Then, there's SV well announcement this month. Expect some boost in the share price, as a result
Regarding gas supplies, you need to understand a few things
Until recently, Gazprom supplied a bulk of its gas to Europe under long-term contracts with a gas price formula, which was linked to a basket of oil products. Normally, with a six month time lag
That guaranteed stability of gas prices for all - both for Gazprom and for consumers
When gas prices dropped, most European customers insisted they would buy gas from Gazprom at spot prices. Contracts were amended. For some time that benefited Gazprom's clients, as spot prices were on a lower side
All changed in 2021, once there is a shortage of gas in Europe, not least because of a substantial demand increase in Asia
Currently, 60-70% of Gazprom's exports to Europe are sold at spot prices. Given supply constraints, it dawned on Gazprom very quickly that all they need to do is to decrease supplies by 10-20% and that will result in 100-200% increase in gas prices. Very shrewd of them, in my view
That's exactly what they have done to boost Gazprom's bottom line. As a result, this will be a record year for Gazprom. Have a look at its share price. I wish we had a similar pattern for our small cap Ukrainian gas peers
There are no constraints on gas production in Russia. Gazprom, Novatek, Rosneft and few other companies can all increase gas production immediately, if needed
Gazprom is expected toG
Apologies for the previous post
Gazprom is expected to pay a dividend in 2021, which would imply a 12-13% yield on the current share price
ENW and JKX should pay a dividend as well. Never been a better moment. Will they? Still not sure.
Hi Krok,
thanks for those posts. Better understanding.
The weakness for both ENW/JKX is well flow rate depletion.
Last couple of SV wells look to have fallen off pretty quickly.
JKX fall off in Ukrainian well production also looks bad.
However, at these gas prices it doesn't matter I guess!?
Roll on the return to 60p.
Hey, OfficerFigby, spot on. Two latest wells drilled by ENW have been a disaster indeed. Mentioned it a few times here
The worst part is that each did cost US$12-15 mn. Will never pay back in any gas price environment
That said, those are sunk costs, irrelevant now. The wells still added somewhat to the overall production, which is 5 kboepd and which is pure gold these days
Gas prices in Europe are US$120 per boe (divide mcm by 5.6). This is almost two times the Brent price - unbelievable, never happened before
In Russia, average gas prices are around US$60/mcm in 2021 and you can buy as much as you need))
Krok,
With all this apparently wasted drilling expenditure sunk in.
I guess the fear could be the man in charge doesn't care about drill results or flow longevity as perhaps the drilling contracts are to his own teams?!
I wonder what is in it for him? how does he make anything out of this enterprise?
What about the buying of actual fields themselves did he own any of the bought assets. I wonder.
Yes, it may well be that Novinskiy earns money either on drilling or on re-selling ENW’s gas. If this is the case, he may not need any dividends
Also, dividends may not be tax efficient for him
He owns UGV directly, this is an asset which is appr. 2/3 the size of ENW. Bigger risk here is that he sells it to ENW at an inflated price and, as a result, gets all cash ENW has. Plus, ENW may need to borrow something for that to happen
That said, the market can initially react positively on this, not understanding the real intention
What I mean is was VAS actually Novinskiy's?
Enwell Energy
The company was founded in 2001. It has a special permit for commercial development of Vasishchevskoye gas condensate deposit (Kharkov region), which is valid till 2032.
Marketable products of the company: natural gas, gas condensate.