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60-80p looks fair but life isnt lets see what comes
Why are you supporting krok? What he is stating is false information and he has yet to answer my question. If he truely had the opinion he states, then he wouldn't be a shareholder. Don't be thrown off course by an agenda!
Look at the company fundamentals for your self. 60p looks fair value!
I have to support Krok. When previously at 60p he was advising caution. Others (Nickel Investor) were trumpeting £1.00 is on the horizon. Then he disappeared over that horizon when RPT fell & fell to circa 10p.
Oldholder I fully agree with your comments, you are mentioning facts i.e. increase in production over the last few years and a rising cash pile. Acquisitions seems to be going nowhere so a Dividend highly likely with the cash. The dividend will put a base on the price. The recent announcement confirms they are looking to distribute reserves. Even if they decided to distribute one third ($26M) of their expected cash this year (about $84M at current gas prices) that amounts to a dividend yield of 24% at the current share price. A surprise big output from the well to be tested this month could really boost revenue.
Krok is a waste of time!
And of course i forgot the imminent- in May of the current year - divident and NO - IN ANY CASE - buy back with the 30 -40 % of the cash
" They will earn another $6 mn in Q1 and spend what they earned during the winter period on their next well. Result - cash unchanged, production flat (if they are lucky) or down"
Two things about abovementioned :
cash :
1-1-2021 61$ml vs 1-1-2018 30,25$ ml this if iam not wrong means double in 3 years
production
2017 2.278boepd 2020 4.541boepd that means with 1 spud / year the production is double.
Keep in mind what else is coming if the 1) oil price up 2) NG price up 3) investment for aquisition or one more spud (because the money are in cash and not needed to borrow) 4) more work overs in existed wells (because AGAIN the money are in cash and not needed to borrow)5)COVID passed due to the vaccines and economic risks ....etc.
This is totally incorrect. Please explain how they have managed to double both cash and production in the last three/four years?
Ahahah, we have a fresh inflow of worshippers of Enwell the great sect here, the previous ones were put to shame
I don’t need any entry price here, I am in already. For the modest amount compared to JKX though and not planning to increase the exposure. Males little sense at above 20p
I am just being realistic. Operationally this company is crap as it is. Looking for dividends (or hint thereof) and then will sell. As simple as that
They will earn another $6 mn in Q1 and spend what they earned during the winter period on their next well. Result - cash unchanged, production flat (if they are lucky) or down
brent medium price NG COND. LPG
2016 43,67 213 51 43
2017 54,25 241 67 56
2018 71,34 312 72 64
2019 64,30 219 58 55
2020 41,01 139 42 40
We assume that the price of NG remains the same all the year of 2020 even is not correct -because as seen will be bigger than H1 - for current calculations purposes of the comparison .
So we can realise for the year 2020 prices in comparison with the years 2016-2017-2018-2019 as bellow :
brent NG COND. LPG
2016 -6,09% -34,74% -17,65% -6,98%
2017 -24,41% -42,32% -37 ,31% -28,57%
2018 -73,96% -124,46% -71,43% -60,00%
2019 -56,79% -57,55% -38,10% -37,50%
Conclusions:
1. The prices for the year 2020-even will be H2>H1- I anticipate a 10% higher , were very low .
2. There is no any proportionality between the years specifically the NG.
3. Check the NG prices in 2017 and 2019 : As seen prices of brent go up and prices of NG go down.
4. As seen the prices (brent vs NG) -until now in Ukraine- are not dependent each other.
5. The results for me , are excellent due to the lowest price in 5 years -perhaps longer.
6. Even though the situation was very bad (covid,prices) enw has obtained to maintain the cash that had in 1-1-2020 with only 2$ ml less .
Great post!
WELLS RESULTES AFTER :
22/5/2020 0:00 SV-54 7 months & 5 days
8/10/2019 0:00 MEX-119 7 months & 15 days
26/7/2018 0:00 VAS-10 4 months & 12 days
23/5/2017 0:00 MEX-109 10 months
21/2/2013 0:00 SV-59 12 months
As observed ENW completes 1 spud in each year.
With this motive enw has an increase of boepd year by year as follows:
years 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
medium 1.395 2.278 3.385 4.261 4.541
Krok is wanting a cheap entry, otherwise why would he be here spending his time highlighting how hopeless this company is? And he needs to answer how they got their cash pile in the first place whilst doubling production?? Cash must have appeared out of thin air into their account.... Additionally. Gas and oil price is now significantly higher than Q4 when cash increased by $5.7m
Basically Krok thinks this company with circa £45m cash, 4,500 boepd in production and 2p reserves of 50m boe... Is expensive.... Or does he? Answers on a post card!
In short Krok is taking absolute rubbish.
my friend there are lots of ppl spouting buy buy nonsense without even understanding the dynamics of pricing in the Ukraine market.. so Ill give you that BUT again you are talking nonsense. 1 year to drill well haha...they spudded in Mid July and completed say in Mid Jan - reached the target depth. how on earth is that 1 year??? even the previous well they did before time and nowhere near 1 year!
They spent $10m before this quarter? again nonsense. even if they did why their cash pile did not decrease accordingly in previous or this quarter?? because as you say they are spending more than they are earning so the cash pile should be decreasing massively every quarter as they drill ESPECIALLY when gas prices were for months lowest in years around 3000-4000 UAH/Mm3
In 2020, they lost $2 mn despite an inflow of $6 mn in Q4. Drilled just one well. Production is down 7%, as a result
Because they spent this $10 mn before 4Q. My friend:))
It took them almost a year to drill it
Nonsense is all this positive bull**** from people who are heavily in the red but still “happy holders”
oh my are you talking nonsense my friend..they just finished drilling a new appraisal well in last quarter and their cash pile increased by $6M so how does that tally against them spending on Capex more than they can earn??
Production is down by 332 boepd
Their latest well gave them 565 boepd
Without this well, the decline would have been 897 boepd. That’s almost 20% decline from natural depletion! Extremely high for gas wells!
People on twitter saying production will undoubtedly go higher are idiots
ENW needs two wells per year just to maintain production. That’s $20-25 mn in capex - more than the company earns
These results seem a little underwhelming. The cash position is great and reassuring but the production decline probably won’t go down too well with the market...
Good thing is that we are back to the 60+ mn territory in terms of cash
Bad thing is production decline - 7% is a lot, given they had a new well in May
Their wells are so deep and therefore expensive that basically they need to spend a major part of cash they earn simply to maintain production
If there is no dividend, then there is little hope it will grow much further than 30p
still got some thing to look forward to, this will bounce :)
I'm just enjoying this steady daily rise, can see 30 -40p very soon
Hope we have a dividend announced soon and the stock re-rates like it was with Volga Gas back in 2019, when it doubled
Based on the circular sent about cancellation of the premium account to allow for distribution of funds (marketscreener.com/quote/stock/EN…) it seems they will have distributable funds amounting 6.6p or based on the current share price a 24% dividend yield. Thoughts?
Re: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ENWELL-ENERGY-PLC-4003987/news/Enwell-Energy-Notice-of-EGM-and-Circular-Jan-21-32137309/
CASH IN $ IN THE LAST 6 YEARS
1/10/2020 $55,700,000
1/7/2020 $54,200,000
1/4/2020 $55,500,000
1/1/2020 $63,000,000
1/10/2019 $60,200,000
1/7/2019 $67,900,000
1/4/2019 $62,500,000
1/1/2019 $53,300,000
1/10/2018 NO INFORMATION
1/7/2018 $40,000,000
1/4/2018 NO INFORMATION
1/1/2018 $30,249,000
1/10/2017 NO INFORMATION
1/7/2017 $24,480,000
1/4/2017 NO INFORMATION
1/1/2017 $19,966,000
1/10/2016 NO INFORMATION
1/7/2016 NO INFORMATION
1/4/2016 NO INFORMATION
1/1/2016 $32,987,000
1/10/2015 NO INFORMATION
1/7/2015 NO INFORMATION
1/4/2015 NO INFORMATION
1/1/2015 $31,836,000
Historically the ENW's RNS never on Monday except something suddenness.