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Sorry for being negative but when you throw Evraz into the pot as well, there's not a lot of hope. Obviously I made some pretty bad choices. Thanks for being so positive though.
Tinks, I assume some of this is CPP related too!? :) I'm in the same boat but not worried about either, all part of a risk strategy that has ups and downs. I'm feeling confident about both, ENRC won't be a huge payday but we will do OK.
I agree with that likelihood - and we all just sit and watch - what else can we do. If it keeps on falling there will be nothing left anyway Feeling very negative this morning.
or 4) KAZ do a deal, minorities get stuffed as company gets delisted.
Kazakhstan’s Minister of Economic Affairs Erbolat Dossayev doesn’t rule out that the Kazakhstan’s Government might boost its share in Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation PLC (ENRC), an FTSE miner, Newskaz.ru reports. “There is some possibility (…) that the Government will significantly boost its share in ENRC (…) it will be a deal in line with the current market conditions. When the market price is defined, there will be some final decision taken (…) the Government will definitely keep its current share and might boost it – if there is such an opportunity”, the Minister elaborated. “The Government considers ENRC to be one of the most important mining assets (…) active participation and involvement of the Government is natural (…) there are many rumors and speculations (…) however, there has been no deal closed so far. We are on the way (…) there are some preliminary suggestions (…) when a final structure of the deal is defined, there will be a special announcement”, he added. “There will be an official statement (…) as far as my personal opinion is concerned, if the Government retains its share in ENRC, it will be more actively involved in management and control”, he said. Alexander Mashkevich, Patokh Shodiyev and Alizhan Ibragimov, ENRC founders, own 14.59% each, with the Government owning 11.65%, Kazakhmys mining company holding another 26% and the rest 19% being owned by minor shareholders. As of the end of 2012 the Corporation announced losses of $852 million as compared to a profit of $1.98 billion in 2011. The Corporation is a subject of a criminal investigation by the Serious Fraud Office. It received its prestigious London listing in 2007.
I have to say, if no bid materialises, this has been a very cruel game that has shown them in the worst light possible to continue with their shareholders. I know it's not a popularity competition but why on earth would they drag this out so long? It's hardly deflected away the SFO has it? I'm racking my brain as to what they have gained by this if they don't make an offer worth accepting? Anyone?
Having read numerous chats and watched what has been transpiring over the last month or so, this is my view. The big companies are drip feeding the market with short and long positions to control the price. This seems pretty obvious. But why? If it was to make their money on short selling they would already be at almost maximum profit as the sp has dropped to it lowest points. What they are doing is topping up their huge long positions at a very low prices so that when the stock rebounds, due to the deal or another catalyst they will profit hugely on the way up! If you notice, they hold millions of positions mostly long. So why when opening or closing positions now are they only small amounts in comparison? I am quite new to this and do not know all the terminology but that's how I see it. I do feel quite confident that the deal will go through. It seems as though it is in the interest of all parties for it to happen. The bidders will have to put in a realistic bid. Hopefully 300p+ I am holding due to not using the most important tool available!!! STOP LOSS!!! Will never place a trade again with a stop loss first.
a) yes b) WTF? assuming the bottom is lower than the live price then surely anyone could pay less to buy the "bottom" c) if 300p is the bid then there is lots left on the table for everyone right here right now at 230!!!
so by shorting the stock, one could: a) make money on the fall b) pay less to buy out the stock when it hits bottom c) make a fortune on the rise to 300p post bid
Interesting post. Or we are about to be sucker punched by no bid, well, in the short term it will feel like that to me.
This afternoons RNS for AQR is disclosing a short FTSE futures positon, this is a bit unconventional is it not? The only reason why they would be doing that is if they were short the Futures and long every other constituent, thereby creating a synthetic short on ENRC. Now I hear you ask why would they do that? Well I might suggest that there is no stock loan/borrow available to do conventional shorts as it's either a) all been recalled to tender in the vote b) its all been loaned out as the bears put their positions on.....I guess in grand scheme of things largely irrelevant but maybe we might see a bit of a squeeze up ahead of any bid. GLA
All depends on their motive, I'm sure that the existing stake the govt have was for free, so why are they now interested to pay to own the company? The oligarchs are investors motivated in protecting their investment and making money, I suspect that the Govt. motive is more an exercise in saving face....still if 320 is the number then i' a happy trader
It cannot be that bad if the government are keen to buy the thing. I'll be holding if the t/o falls through.
Less than a week to go, very little optimism in the share price. Funny thing is even if the t/o falls through this is still an undervalued stock that can genuinely deliver capital growth over the medium to long term despite the head winds of an SFO enquiry. Also interesting to note the relative outperformace versus the sector (NMX1770).....GLA
again here? Looking that way. Did I say train fair. I think I am obsessed with justice and meant train fare.
LOL Even Max (from Eastern Europe I gather lol) will want his 3p and cash at hand doesn't seem to be a problem. Could go but it wouldn't be worth the time nor the train fair to me. Semper vigilo as the Boy Scouts and the Scottish Police would say.
Semper Eadem.
I think it's worth hanging around in CUP to see the news but each person is different. There is plenty of potential for things to go wrong, starting on Friday if there is a bizarre decision to vote against the dividend. I can't see that happening, but you never know.
Don't really mind waiting around when there should be good news on the horizen for a company. It's the companies which are only expected to deliver bad or no news where I wouldn't necessairly hang around or begrudge doing so. I did say on cup a while back that I wanted to see some improvement in the share price before the Scottish school holidays or I would have to consider selling up there. Will get a divi there early next month which is always something and whilst there is takeover/disposal talk and up and coming audit result worth hanging on in there? ATB
I've had enough of this interminable fakeover. Just offer fair value, give us PIs a chance to get out without being pasted too much, and move on. 500p, done and done.
That's exactly what they should have done than creating all this mess. Just swap/sell the shares and make up the difference..
Horrendously complicated but isn't there something about stamp duty savings to be with schemes of arrangement.
No plain English prizes for the screeds of gobbledegook in the Takeover Panel rules. They are even worse than the translation in that post over on the kaz bb this morning! For my sins, I do have kaz shares and really do think their reputation in the city is on the line here. Who wants to invest in a company that wouldn't use its best efforts to get best price for any "assets" it is thinking of disposing of. Maybe Kerimov will buy kaz's enrc shares lol. He's not short of cash and at least we all know the minimum he would have to offer for enrc http://rt.com/business/kerimov-prokhorov-vtb-spo-939/ Enjoy your evening all.
Thanks Motor. It is definitely complicated because of the sizable dual involvement of Kaz and the Kaz Government in both shares. Could they swap for zero value giving Kaz a huge own interest and ENRC. The latter could then buy all shares at market price and go private, shaving the government the difference between the wanted offer and the current SP. Would depend how much Kaz value themselves? Anyway, my head just exploded...