Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Roughly 1,5m FCF debt reduction per day today.
Include GE and it’s 2m
What happen with Enquest producer?
Current production is at 48kish.
"As at the end of April, c.6.2 MMbbls of production has been hedged with an average floor price of c.$63/bbl and an average ceiling price of c.$72/bbl."
This represents approx 50% hedging for remainder of the year.
Ye! Not a single new thing in that update except the hedge info. Guess thats a positive when it comes to ENQ haha :)
Yes, its good
EnQuest has hedged a total of c.9.0 MMbbls for 2021 predominantly using costless collars, with an average floor price of c.$59/bbl and an average ceiling price of c.$68/bbl. As at the end of April, c.6.2 MMbbls of production has been hedged with an average floor price of c.$63/bbl and an average ceiling price of c.$72/bbl.
This is probably the most important bit along with production at 46k - otherwise as expected with Magnus not exiting and Kraken and Malaysia ok.
"Refinancing of the senior credit facility as part of the proposed Golden Eagle acquisition is on track"
Some good hedging , but I can’t see the net debt figure. Production at 46k , ok
Hi!
Slift,
Fun that you think its cool.
I take care of the gas in a different way so I think I will get around the same number as others.
It may seems big numbers but its no count off for gas in the beginning.
L3,
Its just a easy way for me to tell that my time is out for do it.
I had already prepared "updated simply" and I use all of my spirit on that so I need to calm down.
Regards/Kamrat
"I can’t see what will not be to like tomorrow...."
If I had a pound for every time I heard that before an Enquest update, it would make investing in Enquest profitable.
Enquest update day is all about excited anticipation ending in shattering frustration.
Good luck all - we will probably need it.
The last refinance spurred the SP.
I can’t see what will not be to like tomorrow if they reiterate production guidance. All of the bad news is already out there.
This is a really good recovery story now. SP is in an uptrend. I think we will be OK tomorrow, but of course you never know how the market will react. Hopefully it will be a blue day in general markets to help us along.
Over the last 5 years I cannot recall our SP reacting well, we have either sold off due to panic or sold off on good news. Will it be any different tomorrow? I doubt it but there’s always a chance.
Those off book sells appearing either 100k and 150k chunks worry me a little as there’s been a lot of them over the past few weeks, why sell now ?
Therapist, Good summary and hope get most of those answers.
If AB manage sink SP further he is really one of a kind.
When already undervalued with a multiple of 3 compared to peers.
Be nice if the Enquest producer finds the OO
Hi,
49750 boepd to end April 21
Not updated enough to do other number predictions as yet.
We've all been here before and despite all the profound analysis and self evident truths it has a nasty habit of swiftly going South on days like tomorrow.
BUT TOMORROW WILL BE DIFFERENT!!
Updates aplenty, disclosures transparent, developments explained, production issues detailed, FPSO's sold, all that confusing finance stuff thrown by the wayside, d******d timetable released and 60p party fully subsidised.
GLAXXX
Tarmak,
Cool spreadsheet. Though very optimistic in production for 2021, imo.
As per guidance and with estimates, i'd give the below (on an annual production basis):
Kraken = c. 23k bopd
Magnus = c. 15k bopd
Scolty etc = c. 4.75 - 5k bopd
Malaysia = c. 5.5k bopd
GE = c. 2.5k bopd (based on Q4 alone)
To end of April, I have production estimated at c. 45.5-46k bopd
Tarmak,
The whole point of being a lth is to to develop an understanding how the different parts of a company move together. Of course, short term movements are hard to predict. For the sake of simplicity, in my projections I assume Capex&Abx are evenly spread out year round and there are no capital movements. The whole point is to see if one is not very far off when the numbers are revealed...
Momentum and noise traders do not care about financial and operational details of companies. They trade on short-term indicators: daily movements of price of oil and of the share price, etc. I have no time or interest on such daily movements.
On GE: once there is a closing date for the deal I can think about how the business will change money coming in, and money going out... ($325M & 2 contigency cvosiderations of $25M each).
Londoner7's fabulous arithmetic expression is: $$$ = Volume x Price
we know Price has been positive for ENQ. Tomorrow we will find out if finf out about Volume.
Londoner7, you do not need any of the Capex assumptions to project production. So, be brave and tell us the magical number you are expecting for production.
....... give me a "g", give me an "n",......
p.s.:hitman1a, the questions had to be in by Monday at noon.
My ramblings for figures are, we should have $120m for debt reduction $20m for sculture $100m for RCF. The PIK will increase debt by $40m so that deferred payment should be added to the RCF repayment giving a reduction on RCF of $140m to $ 237m and debt at $1160m
How do you account for CapEx to date in your net debt and RCF repayment projections?
As for tomorrow.
Give me an ‘M’, give me an ‘a’, …………….
I think predicting net debt reduction by quarter is a little bit pointless. We don’t know when cargoes are sold or when invoices come due.
But I will play along - $90 million reduction.
Production YTD 47kbpd
I made some rough calculations backwards and forward with GE. To clear all debt profile.
Based on 65 oil
Early 2020, around 47 months to clear debt
Early 2021, around 43 months to clear debt
Early 2022, around 21 months to clear debt
Also hitting the 1 to 1 debt EBITDA early next year.
Getting 75 oil H2 and 2022 we down to 14 months profile debt free.
It’s getting a safer and safer bet.
2020 vs 2022 is huge difference
Hi!
L3,
As you know am I a lth so I don't do stuff like this but, why is it always a but, I have done another calculation.
When 7,5 month has gone, and GE is ours, whats your numbers.
I did do it to show why the numbers who is coming will be low and how high they are at year-end.
In the same time I´ll got the right tax-numbers for GE (i counted from year-numbers when i should use a breakpoint).
Look at "updated simply original" and you still can compare to the other one.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing
It`s a bright time to come!
Regards/Kamrat
Do we posters really know ENQ well enough?
If we do, we should be able to project tomorrow's numbers (production and net debt) accurately enough.
So, the challenge for posters is to make such projections to show they understand how the different parts of ENQ interact together in terms of delivering the bottom line. Some people have already provided such projections.
For example, Pelle wrote he expects net debt reduction of $100M. I basically agree with him, but I am going to go for $105M.
On production, Slift, posted the following on 04 May 2021 19:14
"Production for Q1 estimated at 44.5k bopd.
Estimated Production for Q2: 47.5k bopd
Estimated production for Q3: 51.5k bopd
Estimated production for Q4 (including GE): 63.5k bopd"
So for the first 4 months you would get an average slightly under 46Kboepd. Since I am unsure how Magnus is doing, but both Londoner7 and Therapist have expressed optimism about Magnus, my projection, influenced by their views, is for a production figure (as released by ENQ, and which includes the share that Petronas gets in Malaysia and the WI of BP in Magnus) of 46.5Kboepd for the first 4 months.
I also expect RCF repayments of about $75M so far in 2021.
So, my challenge is for people to try to do better than all of us who have put out figures so far.
GLA