The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Gruvgunnar, from your opinion when do you think total may want to drill,
Bit of ECO volume on TSX
Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pel-83-exploration-campaign-4-180000222.html
Successfull appraisal and another discovery...
Https://worldoil.com/news/2024/3/6/totalenergies-qatarenergy-acquire-new-exploration-license-offshore-south-africa-near-successful-namibian-discoveries-in-orange-basin/
In a previous post, I wrote that we do not know how Total's management intends to prioritize drilling in its concessions. I may have to modify this after Gil's determined performance in the presentation. The reasons that can be adduced for an early entry into 3B/4B are
1. That Total Energy's investment has given 3B/4B a valuation of around 300 MUSD (using Gil's figures). It is money on the table that is a measure of their interest in the concession.
2. From a production perspective with infrastructure in mind, it is logical to start from the Venus find and systematically work south.
3. In addition, there is apparently a time aspect attached to the deal which means that Total Energy can receive a penalty payment if they do not drill within the stipulated time in the agreement.
You can see where Total Energy has its blocks in the link above.
Threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, raised to critical. Oil price may go through the ceiling.
Good presentation from Gill.
We have heard a lot of very positive talk from him over the years but this time, the business seems on a much more stable basis.
XOM farming into Orinduk would be massive !!
Share price predictions are always dangerous, but Eco at 10p is way undervalued.
He did say 9 or 10 big boys looking at orinduk, fingers crossed, that would give share price a well needed boost.
At least Gil has a lot of skin in the game and is focussed on delivering shareholder value. He said he was disappointed by the share price reaction to to the farm in and strong balance sheet. Made it clear that there would be no dilution going forward and his job was to educate the market to realise a much higher share price with many catalysts in the next 18 month and potentially a drill before year end.
Https://www.investormeetcompany.com/meetings/investor-update-44
All sounded quite positive from Gill, really hope he pulls it off with Orinduik and Namibia. Reading between the lines it sounds like deals are close, going to be an interesting 12-18 months. Sitting and holding here on a mountain of shares so looking forward to it all coming in.
Yes, the only reason the share price is down post farm out is that there is no definitive drilling start date, as soon as this is confirmed we are on our way, good time to start building a position
Nearly all buys today but not moving the price back up. Implies a stock overhang which hopefully will clear.
Based on the CPR - the drill targets could be hitting stack pays so 4 Billion Resources Gross would easily compensate for just 6.25 WI. Farm-In was good deal all round. Gets wells drilled too..
There are several aspects to consider in this settlement.
One is that Total's willingness to quickly get to drilling depends on their relative share in the blocks in the area and the potential that Total's crew estimates exists in these respective blocks. A knowledge we do not have.
As previously noted, ECO has chosen to take cash compensation instead of being exposed with a higher share in the block. The reason for this could be risk spreading in general, or that ECO sees a quick settlement underway in Guyana.
ECO's business concept is not to produce, but to sell processed values in the ground. The company will receive bids even before an appraisal if the first drilling hits oil. Are we talking about 1 or 2 billion barrels, for ECO 60 or 120 million barrels in the ground?
We know from the Venus deal that the price to be carried through the entire production build-up - of the entire block in the future - is a further halved part. But which after 2-3 years of payback gives amounts of dollars at market price. - That is the option that ECO can sell. It's huge.
The money track ECO selected makes me think it is wrong to sell on the news. There will be more deals. And it is realistic to believe in a deterministic journey with a higher share price according to the model from previous outcomes until drilling starts.
My thoughts post ops update were this could be finished or maybe Gil and team would come through but was neutral in the outcome.
Well am very happy now, yes a wait till drill 4q or 25/26 but wow that's a good farm-out Sub 100p on spud then could be very happy days.
All or mostly junior explorers are binary. By definition they are a bet on their acreage and the odds improved significantly on the back of yesterday's news.
I have been very critical of Gil in the past and I still think he deserves that criticism. However to be fair to him he has been keeping his head down of late and has delivered on this. Fair play.
This is now just a matter of time until the cost free spud .
JWBellamy
You're posting as I'd expect from a J Beadle if he was still alive.
We are £35m MCAP, about yo have $20m cash on balance sheet and a carry worth up to $216m from one of the largest Majors in O&G globally.
This is an exploration share, they are never going to be a producer without partners. They have that now.
Total have the benefit of their local discoveries and how the seismic looked there and will have looked to see how this is similar to Ecos acreage. They've seen enough to give Eco and Acrica Oil significant carry and become Operator of the licence. Quite how you think that isn't worth the current MCAP is frankly daft in my view.
I'll be adding significantly here (for me) over the period up to drilling results.
It’s not. Point as follows..:
Eco has a market cap of £35m and that’s not fully diluted.
You have a tiny stake in something now that is totally binary. You have no production and cash will drain. It’s not hard to see why holders are selling
What utter drivel. Have you even read anything about the resource? Clearly not....
That’s why this is dropping and holders been trying to exit since yesterday
With the market cap being what it is already, eco will need the motherload to come in to justify a higher valuation
So, ECO announces $20m cash coming its way and 2 free drills and SP ends up lower after 1 trading day. Only on the LSE. NASDAQ listing would have seen this triple...
Country is Donald Ducked...
Buy trade of 9 shares and MM drops the price by 10%!
I guess they just woke up to the fact that on TSX it dropped by 10% yesterday afternoon.
Berenberg valuation (125p) makes perfect sense and is likely based on deals such as Chevron’s proposed acquisition of Hess for 59B$, deriving $/bbl and assuming (possibly) a 1Gb net unrisked resource base in 3B/4B.
Can't help but feel Total and Qatar giving Eco the rest of the WI in Guyana at no cost, was part of this deal, unofficially.....