The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Started accumulating here ahead of the Q1 fun
The short summary of the climate meeting seems to be that it must be the supply side of the market and the price of green technology that must determine the speed of the transition. Not the supply side of oil. In addition, the transition must be "fair", something that adjusts the way for different supply in the third world. IMHO.
The issue of taxation in the stock market goes away soon, but a notification about an environmental permit for 3B / 4B will soon arrive. Then we have the interest of the three new players in the concession to be materialized.
I like the increasing volume, in London too. :-)
I must be in the minority buying this morning at 9.5p. Sub 10p tempts me considering the beckoning silence and licence holdings. Seems a long time ago I offloaded half my holding at 161p, new year beckons.
3p ?? thats a tad far left field.
If you want a reliable source of information just follow aoi.
Cybertron,
If it goes to 3p I'll buy every share I can get my hands on, and then some :)
Grow a feeling the CEO is an idiot should have taken the first farm out now he will entertain these others who may walk away, what a Muppet!
You take the first chance you get to get this thing going as no one has been interested past year,
Reckon come next year nothing and share price goes to 3pence
In my humble opinion, I think it's just a political stunt by maduro, with venezuela doing terrible and an election in 2024. There are now many companies operating in guyana not just US and Chinese, last week Brazil moblized troops upto the venezuela boader in support guyana. It would be the end for Maduro to start a war, I would think.
with elections coming up in venezuela
I amost forgot, the 770mbo & the 1bbo taken together, value our shares at 1.9pence each. Yes you read that correctly.
Most oil in the ground is normally valued at between $1-3 per barrel. Assuming the 1BBO is correct, we are currently sitting with approximately 5 barrels of oil PER SHARE. You do the maths. :)
This "could" be a 100-300+ bagger, it could also be nowt. Place your bets ladies and gentlemen, place your bets...........!
It's almost at CAD 0.15 now & the sp is sitting at almost a 12 month low. Don't know what difference it makes at this stage. Buying now guarantees a low buy-in price.
As for Guyana, The American supermajors are all over it, do you think the US Govt will just sit back and let Venezuela steal it? The US Govt are all over the threat as we speak. Nowt to worry about imo.
Between the nature of the oil found on our blocks in Guyana, and the political situation in Venezuela, I've written off Guyana. Namibia on the other hand I'm still very keen on and will soon add an additional 25% to my already substantial investment in EOG - when the price hits 15 cents CAD.
Yep. I've topped up (trebled my holding) ready for the move up.
If ECO can land a farm-out it'll shoot up. If they can land a couple, it'll shoot the lights out for a while.
Don't forget we already have 770 million barrels offshore Guyana & a further "potential" 1 Billion on our SA blocks.
I'd rather be in early and wait a few weeks/months, than try to buy once it's rocketed.
Just my strategy, each to their own I suppose :)
H1 2024. :-)
We will have at least one, maybe two, farmouts during H1. Check backward in the chart for having a hint on the valuation when the farm out is a fact.
So differently one can comment on a possible farmout agreement at the end of Q1. :-)
The rating of Eco can go from
uncertainty about possible farmout to probability of farmout time until the end of Q1.
After an agreement, the valuation can be adjusted according to the likely time for drilling.
For ECO, the joker will be if they also make an agreement in Guyana.
Sees opportunity for big moves from today's levels during H1 -25.
Yes no worries here all good market will set the rate. Maybe drilling late 24 but realistically 25 what's not to like.
Did not see previous posts. Sorry.
Part of the article:
"“We have had significant discussions with one major already on that block,” Tucker told investors on 16 November, and had hoped to wrap up a deal — which would likely involve drilling two exploration wells — sooner rather than later.
However, he pointed out that now, because “three other majors have asked to come into” the data room, finalisation of a farm out agreement will take a bit more time”.
“The (deal) is going to take a little bit longer. But I think it’s worth standing on the sidelines and not leaping at the first opportunity, because there has been this sudden uptick in the level of interest in the block,” he said.
Tucker said he wants to give these late arriving majors the time needed to study what is on offer in the data room, before a decision is made and a deal wrapped up.
He reckons an agreement could be clinched “towards the end of the first quarter” of 2024.
Tucker did not name the interested parties, but it is thought they include Shell and TotalEnergies – who already operate acreage elsewhere in South Africa’s Orange basin – would be keen to assess the potential of Block 3B/4B."
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/three-majors-in-last-minute-dash-to-enter-race-for-slice-of-orange-basin-hot-spot/2-1-1561042?fbclid=IwAR0VhZYbuxi5xpUF8zMosuWEcly8lxzC-5VQGklfbgIkpTVFO66gA3sjhDc
Given that Total did back away from the farm out (https://www.africaintelligence.com/southern-africa-and-islands/2023/06/20/totalenergies-takes-step-back-from-offshore-block-3b_4b,109995682-art), now they, plus others are interested is great news.
Yes, drilling is slipping to the right, but without finance, there would be no drilling! This is very positive news and is a result that the South African government has finally broken through the legal restraints regarding oil and gas exploration.
So no drilling action in 2023 & from what you’ve just posted no drilling in 2024….well that’s just great. Explains todays share price plummet!
A last-minute burst of interest by multiple supermajors in a sought-after exploration block in South Africa’s sector of the prolific Orange basin will delay the conclusion of a farm-out process.
Block 3B/4B — an asset that could host 4 billion barrels of recoverable resources — is operated by Stockholm-listed independent Africa Oil, which together with its two partners are keen to farm out a combined 55% stake in the deepwater acreage.
A data room has been open for some months and there were expectations in the market that a farm out deal could be struck soon, but an eleventh-hour flurry of interest means there will now be a delay.
“There is a high level of interest from major companies to come into this block and I anticipate that, certainly within 2024, we will have concluded a farm-in,” Africa Oil chief executive Roger Tucker told analysts recently.
Block 3B/4B is completely covered by 3D seismic data, studies of which have identified 24 prospects, many thought to be in the same Late Cretaceous play as the very big Jonker and Venus discoveries made by Shell and TotalEnergies’ on the Namibian side of this oil and gas rich basin.
“We have had significant discussions with one major already on that block,” Tucker told investors on 16 November, and had hoped to wrap up a deal — which would likely involve drilling two exploration wells — sooner rather than later.
However, he pointed out that now, because “three other majors have asked to come into” the data room, finalisation of a farm out agreement will take a bit more time”.
“The (deal) is going to take a little bit longer. But I think it’s worth standing on the sidelines and not leaping at the first opportunity, because there has been this sudden uptick in the level of interest in the block,” he said.
Tucker said he wants to give these late arriving majors the time needed to study what is on offer in the data room, before a decision is made and a deal wrapped up.
He reckons an agreement could be clinched “towards the end of the first quarter” of 2024.
Tucker did not name the interested parties, but it is thought they include Shell and TotalEnergies – who already operate acreage elsewhere in South Africa’s Orange basin – would be keen to assess the potential of Block 3B/4B.
Africa Oil holds a 26.25% in the block, with Eco Atlantic holding 20% and privately-owned South African player Ricocure on 53.75%.(Copyright)
Part of the article:
"TotalEnergies’ Mangetti-1X exploration well in Namibia’s prolific Orange basin will also appraise the supermajor’s Venus oil discovery in Block 2913B, confirming an earlier report by Upstream.
Once this well has been completed, the supermajor might target a prospect further north before turning its attention to the southern part of the block where a 3D seismic shoot is due to kick off early next year.
TotalEnergies completes critical flow tests on huge Namibian discovery
Read more
Looking even further ahead, the French operator may eventually return to adjacent Block 2912 where the Nara-1X probe was said to be “dry” by TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne, but did in fact hit hydrocarbons.
Roger Tucker, chief executive of Africa Oil — a listed company with an indirect 6.2% stake in the two blocks through its 31.1% ownership of Impact Oil & Gas — said the exploration target for Mangetti-1X is a “higher fan than was encountered” at Venus, but stressed the well would also drill deeper to target the northern extension of Venus.
He suggested Mangetti will likely go through both objectives between mid-December and the end of this year, but cautioned that results might only be released by the operator during its February capital markets day.
Once this well has been completed by the Tungsten Explorer drillship, a new probe could be drilled in the northern part of the block, Pouyanne recently said.
At the same time, Tucker told analysts late last week that additional 3D seismic would be acquired over the southern part of 2913B to cover the promising Damara and South Damara structures.
“It looks extremely attractive, and the 3D will be shot in the early part of 2024.”
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/totalenergies-latest-namibia-exploration-probe-targets-two-reservoirs/2-1-1559827?fbclid=IwAR1VmvkH7Ls2stbL6u9qhr394lKT6XRSfKesL2iqPgeBWpDyCS8NZsY2wvY
My eyes are on mangetti-1 to the north of venus, results expected in weeks...
Thanks for the info from upstream gruvgunnar,it’s really appreciated as not everyone can afford their costly subscriptions.
Part of the article:
"Africa Oil — which has an indirect 6% stake in Venus through part ownership of Impact Oil & Gas — said that results from Venus-1X are 'expected to be confirmed by the Venus-1A drill stem test [DST] programme'. "
......
"An earlier production test on the Venus-1X discovery well met expectations, so the clear hope among partners — which also include QatarEnergy and state oil company Namcor — is that these results will be matched by Venus-1A.
One knowledgeable source last week said that “big” flares had been reported at the Deepsea Mira.
This was confirmed by Africa Oil’s recently appointed chief executive Roger Tucker, who said there were “major flares” at the well location.
These flares, he explained, disappeared and reappeared on satellite images as TotalEnergies switched the flow of hydrocarbons off and on to assess pressure build-up in the reservoirs.
“So, we’ve tested hydrocarbons to surface at the Venus appraisal well,” Tucker told analysts during the company’s third-quarter conference call late last week.
Upstream understands the flares were visible on about a dozen separate occasions between 9 and 12 November.
Tucker said: “We would expect to see results in the next couple of weeks.”
TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne recently said that Venus is a commercial project and would be developed.
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/totalenergies-completes-critical-flow-tests-on-huge-namibian-discovery/2-1-1557001?fbclid=IwAR3BOkLk2z7PAjOoZHgistRZJ7r9ufr4Plk2_z1mQ1ybKYYyVeZi8qGODig
Part of the article:
"Colin Kinley, co-founder and chief operating officer of Eco Atlantic, said: “We have always been very involved with the exploration and interpretation of the block, and our experienced team will step directly into operatorship to finalise target selection.”
Discussing the wider offshore exploration scene in Guyana, he said nearly 10 years of exploration has generated Cretaceous discoveries holding close to 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil.
“Our team has a good understanding of the Cretaceous play and we have a great deal of confidence in drilling our first well, targeting a stacked pay target in this well- proven horizon.”
Kinley said Eco Atlantic is now looking for partners in this high-value play and has started a formal farm-out process.
“Recent interest from supermajors and other well capitalised energy companies in the latest licencing bid round in Guyana for blocks up-dip of us, supports our thesis of the oil migration and the high quality and charged reservoirs we see on our block,” he argued."
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/junior-player-opens-doors-in-partner-hunt-for-tantalising-guyana-block/2-1-1555318?fbclid=IwAR2HTMVYwXgLq6jnaTwCH9Yj6DymvwuLG95q0DSZZWEsBgc-8ySuBZn_Po4