The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Whether the shares ran too hard Thursday on the trading update, or will face upside resistance nearer 100p is something we will only know some way down the track. When releasing its interims, the company warned of the adverse effect the new GDPR regime was having on client activity, which has hung over sentiment since. The fact that second half revenue surged pushing full year revenue ahead 35pc vs the 25pc gain in the interims took the brakes off, for now, especially since fourth quarter growth eclipsed the previous quarter, which has continued.
But it won’t be until we see the results in detail and get a better grip on EPS growth that a more informed debate on the worth of the shares can take place.
Yes, thanks C/Mate, actually read that analysis this morning. The analyst reckons it's the quality high end, Dotmailer is succeeding in, not the 'Tesco' customer types such as the analyst himself who uses the cheapo versions by competitors and thinks Dotmailer is too dear, hence the analysts begrudging raised eyebrow at the good results.
Whatever the SP has entered overbought condition tonight. On such trading updates it would be safe to ignoire but given my perceived view on 90p being a resistance level I won't be surprised to see it fall back from here; or maybe not as it is a good result and no mistake, but I'm more than 'not-surprised' the SP parked up in this 80-90 hole - not a coincidence IMO.
Interesting article from stockopedia today:
https://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-thur-19-july-2018-rdl-jim-goal-spe-sis-dotd-nicl-383339/
I tend to agree with it where it says not being sure they can get behind a 17% rise in share price (20% come day end) from a trading update merely in line with market expectations.
I have kept DOTD on one of my watchlists since I sold out (at a loss) earlier in the year. After a brief look at the RNS this morning I looked at buying in again. Early on I could get 77p but hesitated only to struggle to get any price for a while and then see it rise to over 82p shortly after. Keeping in mind what Robbie Burns, the Naked Trader, about resisting trading in the first hour I decided to hold back and see what happened. By the next time I could get a price, some hours later due to being out in the fells walking, the price was in the high 80s. Maybe a lot of the gain is to do with the fact that DOTD don't see the GDPR issue being much as an issue and therefore investors have regained some of their confidence.
I will await and see what happens.
"Maybe too rich for my blood, as my style of investing dictated that I sell out when it retraced alarmingly. So perhaps I'm not cut out for these type of hot shares.
I prefer some sort of self-perceived control. Can't abide sheer luck of the draw. Who, anywhere in the world could have forseen a 17% rise in one day as perfectaly acceptable?"
Tend to agree Velo.
Good luck to all invested here.
Regards
CM
- WOW !!!
17%+ increase IN ONE DAY?!? That's way beyond my ken, or any kind of handle I can bring to bear on understanding this share.
Maybe too rich for my blood, as my style of investing dictated that I sell out when it retraced alarmingly. So perhaps I'm not cut out for these type of hot shares.
I prefer some sort of self-perceived control. Can't abide sheer luck of the draw. Who, anywhere in the world could have forseen a 17% rise in one day as perfectaly acceptable?
Talking of control. - 80p/90p - I refer you to some of my earlier posts. It's hanging betwixt 80 & 90 - that's the area I was yapping about in previous posts. Be interesting (as in very) to see if it can sweep through this area with the same abandon it's just shown so far today, in the coming days/weeks.
In one day it's shot from just under average meandering relative strength index to the very foothills of the overbought camp. And plomked itself right in the middle of that 80/90 area that frightens me. Longs will need to see it brutally dispose of this 80/90 area, to rest easy.
Again, wow for today! Just wow!
What a stunner! First half revenue was up 25pc, which was way outdone in the second half, lifting full year revenue growth to 43pc. And a big chunk of that is ending up as cash.
When the books were ruled off in mid-17, it had Stg20m on the balance sheet. It used Stg11m for an acquisition leaving Stg10m on the books mid year, which has now risen back to Stg15m. This gives the board plenty of fire power especially since at this rate of cash generation, it will have around Stg20m on the balance sheet by the end of 2018
Excellent trading update today
"...Got out with about a tenner after costs LOL!..."
That doesn't read as I intended -
- Got out with about a tenner in profits after costs - that's what it should have said, otherwise there'd have been no LOL but instead a :(
Don't think there is. It's a case of a false positive or more prosaically, a case of a failure to launch.
When I saw it turnng back from kissing 80p I gave it room to recover, but when it arrived right on my doormat I thought, no - too risky to endure a loss, so sold before it turned into one. Got out with about a tenner after costs LOL!
Will keep tabs on this but it's been in a committed down trend since the beginning of the year and it's now July!
Based on its previous behaviour all this year long, I half erxpected it to give up the fight at 90p before turning back, so was caught unawares by it turning tail at 80p. When this retrace is spent, I expect the next rally will have a pop at kissing 90p. But that being the case, I'll look to re-enter at 70p or better, though.
It's just in the early stages of yet another bear run IMO, so anybody's guess where the new floor will be this time.
Whatever, it still looks as if it wants to drop lower than the price you see tonight. Also it's now entering the 7th month of committed retrace; is somethng else going on that I'm unaware of? It's beginning to smell a bit.
Looking at the balance sheet, The Price to Book Value, Price to Tangibles.Book, Price to Free Cashflow and Price to Sales book, all look pretty poor. Other than those the balance sheet doesn't look half bad at all. But with such consistent bad behaviour of the SP all this first half year, all of a sudden the PE ratio is starting to look a little expensive.
The full year results should be out in October and last year a tradfing update was released in mid July, so hope this long retrace all year, isn't insiders unloading their shares ahead of any bad news in the trading update. The behaviour of the SP all this year to date, does not inspire confidence.
I hope there is now enough velocity to take us into the 80's - noticed the big buys yesterday and bought more.
Great news on the agreement between dotDigital and Yieldify today! No doubt behind the rise in share price... https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/06/19/1526696/0/en/Yieldify-Partners-with-dotmailer-to-Enhance-Customer-Journeys-for-E-Commerce-Brands.html
It's late; and spewing this out in one go so hope it's comphrensible. Yes, this site recently introduced borrowing Tradingviews charts, under license I assume, when you click the third 'Technical' button above in charts mode. This 72p area has turned out to be a surprisingly hard floor. The past 6 trading days have halted or opened on 72p dead! - The 29th and 30th May (Tuesday and Wednesday of last week) both intraday-ed down to 72p and no further. - Thursday the 31st May it opened and closed the day back at 72p forming a Tombstone Doji - usually a bearish reversal candlestick if occuring at the top of a bull trend - but it occured at support at the bottom of a downtrend - so ugh - however, its still a Doji candlestick so it still signals maybe a reversal up ahead, hopefully bullish. - The next day Friday June 1st, it closed bang on 72p after previously opening higher on the morning of that day. - Monday June 4th of this week it opened at 72p but closed higher with a bullish candlestick. - And today Tuesday 5th June, after opening at 72p - it took off on extraordinary volume about four times the volume of what the average long term volume is, so ii's buying in today, maybe? And it closed well clear of 72p for the first time in a full trading week. So yes, I'd say on this occasion 72p may well be the floor. However, that's just opinion, I'd rather wait for my trailing trend lines to catch up, by which time it may be obvious even to the casual onlooker that the retrace may be over and I would then belatedly post there was an uptrend in evidence. Would not be surprised if it did fail and recommenced the retrace; but without tempting the gods I'm of the opinion, subject to confirmation of short term trendlines, that this retrace may be prepping itself to do an about face. However, just a thought I have at the back of my mind. Take a look at the full 6 month chart of DOTD to bring in to view the price action from Jan2nd this year - to date - and see if you can see what I may - or may not be imagining - but I think there's huge, big trouble ahead at circa 90p (Patterns ie., Lower highs/lower lows since the very first day of this year to date) but save that for another day as it may be part and parcel of that doubt over the recent legislation which most now agree in hindsight may be regarded as being beneficial for DOTD - but if that assertion doesn't hold then I will defo have the collywobbles when this climbs back to circa 90p area. What is almost at hand is one of the very best examples of an old Gap-Up providing battle-hardened support for the SP on the way down. It's rare the gap gets closed on the penny, so precisely, but this may be one such occasion. Right; garble over :)
Velo, I have done a little digging of my own and have settled on uk.tradingview.com. Really good free charts for a beginner, Ive been picking some of the more popular indicators and running some experiments on my portfolio. Im no expert, but looking at MACD, RSI and OBV one could expect a rise in the near future, perhaps a significant one. 72 looks to be the bottom too. Am I up the wrong tree on this one?
And a sunny Sunday good morning to you C/mate, Thanks for the link. The internet makes easy Columbo's out of us all :) copy/pasted from UK bit onwards and instantly it threw up YouTube with several Mark Slater videos. At work so couldn't devote more than a few seconds to it. Tried again later and saw another link to the Telegraph saying Mark Slater talks about the stock that returned his investment 35 times! (Cape I think it was) but I'm a sucker for things like the para in there somewhere where he said 'we eliminate 90% to 95% of the market with just 3 sieves we use' - but couldn't read it as working. So placing this post as a memo marker to remind me tonight.
No luck again. I obviously have to be careful here. I found the article through the Tom Winnifrith website, so it may be difficult to access. Nevermind, you may find it through some other channel. Good luck CM
Ok, so it doesn't like the link. The ****************** obviously doesn't like the word "*************". Oooops, I didn't say that, somebody else did!. CM
Good evening Velo. Re the presentation from Mark Slater and DOTD, it was a video presentation from the UK investor show 2018. Hopefully the link below will work; apologies if it doesn't. DOTD is mentioned at around the 24.25 minute mark - but worth listening in to the build up to it from around 23 minute. The whole presentation is quite a good listen and gives his take on the market and timing. He mentions some other companies too. https://www.*************.com/views/35827/uk-investor-show-2018-video-mark-slater-the-uk-s-top-fund-manager regards CM
"Now do you pay for a service to look at charts in a certain amount of detail? I am just using free services for the time being, only been at this for a year or so. :) " - Yes, I do subscribe to a specialist service. I really need it. But like you, for many a year I just used what was available for free online. I also have the live prices package added to mine, so I'm as happy as Larry - so to speak.
Yes, that's it more or less - but rather than the Gap-Up indicating future growth, it's better reffered to as a sudden pent up demand by large buyers (ii's) affecting the price in the pre-opening auction of that paticular day. 9 times out of 10 the SP continues to trend up for awhile. Other times the gap-up can move little after the opening bell, and lowers expectations of a new bull run. And it's the same in reverse a gap-down. There are two camps of thought that gap-up's don't necessarily get revisited to "Fill The Gap". I'm in the most definitely IT does revisit to fill the gap at any time in the future - be it years, decades or months later, (or weeks). - When someone points to a gap not being revisited to be filled, I always retort well you haven't waited enough years :) ------------------ Well by mid day I got spooked a bit by the platforming of 72p/73p flooring for more or less 3 or 4 days on the trot now. So I did my usual and didn't worry about the futility of calling the bottom and purchased a small initial buy this afternoon. Trend lines still strongly bearish looking, so I'm wary. But the SP could dissapate sort of sideways in a rangebound manner for days until the trendlines catch up and as the SP levels out as it has down mostly all this week, before then coming out of the dive. Oversold Relative Strength is easing slightly, indicating possibly an easing out of the dive, ....maybe. So my first tranche leaves me space to make another 4 or 5 purchases up to my preffered budgeted level per share. So If it drops further - goody, I can make the same small purchase again, and ameliorate my average buying in price without concern. If it drops a lot more - same again - if it starts to rise, I can pay higher or as I sometimes do, leave a share pick under-budgeted - so as to pick up any future meanderings cheaply - without going over budget. I don't rush to maximum buying up, I dawdle. All day it was showing 72p sell / 74p buy. Live prices didn't appear to move so did a dummy buy on my brokers site and was very surprised that the hefty margin was no longer there and the stock was available to buy for 72.64p - only thing was, is that I was on my SIPP's broker site and I want this in my ISA. So came out of it and got some jobs done and thought I would look in hours later - only to do the exact same thing the incorrect brokerage account - and it was still the same exact price hours later. So went over to my ISA account, and unbelievably it was still available for 72.64p so I thought - well that'll do and took it. Well pleased. Now I've got some skin in the game I'm keeping more of an eye on the negatives of DOTD. The Price to book ratio is terrible. And the price to free cashflow (discounted cashflow) is even worse! It's on the ropes. Not good at all. I'll have to drop a line to that Mark Slater, see what he thinks - LOL !
Velo, I think I understand you: A gap up is an indication of future growth for a share to a certain point. The share will then most likely retract to the region of the gap up over time, where it is likely to rise from again. Now do you pay for a service to look at charts in a certain amount of detail? I am just using free services for the time being, only been at this for a year or so. :)
Velo, I can imagine you furiously typing away last night in haste to get to bed, I hope we didnt keep you too long! I will add PFG and GNK to my own watchlist and do some research on them. Always keen to look up more shares! Profit warnings are a bummer, sell as soon as you hear about them IMO and take the loss on the chin. Although i think in most cases you can see one coming, shares either go very quiet or very loud on the RNS front if something like that is coming. SYM - I got involved with them back at the beginning of August at around 11p, added again at 21p. I got involved because I think the product lines are great and it was a stable business, managed to get lucky with the government releasing new environmental policies in January. Big issue with it is that they down own the Patent's. Big pluses are that legislation is driving their business and its slowing coming in, they have a good BOD IMO and global sentiment is on their side. More on my strategy - I often see a overreaction from shares that issue trading updates that are slightly below market expectations. I think the market will massively overreact to results that are as little as 10% off target, which I dont think represents reality and there fore represents good value. So far, this has worked for me every time although Ive not been doing this too long! Examples: I just sold DOM, where there was an oversell in August. Just bought into MGP where there was also an oversell recently. DOTD also of course. Keep us updated with those trend lines!
(Cont from below)... DOTD Gap-up's. The last time DOTD was at tonight's closing SP - was in mid October last year - where it gapped-up the next day from closing at 72p then jumping up overnight so the next trading day it opened up straight out the gate 8:00am at circa 76p (a 5% increase overnight gap-up; nice work if you can get it) but better still, that new trading day that it gapped up 5% to 76p - is that it only went and closed at 82p that same day; showing the Gap-up was strong demand for the stock. So consider this; an investor would turn in for the night knowing his or her DOTD shares were priced at close @ 72p. That investor is busy the next day, and couldn't get near a phone or screen or whatever, and returned home in the evening only to find that it had closed that day at 82p after the previous night's close of 72p - so in one day it had gapped up from the previous day's close of 72p only to close the next trading day at 82p giving that investor a 13.8% gain in one day flat! Gap-up's can do that. They're powerful. And from then on the true nature of the gap-up giving investors a "heads up" revealed it's true intent of built-up buying demand to soar away to finiih a few months later at the end of the year at circa 104p - a 44% increase which the gap-up "signalled" ahead of the game.. Now here's the thing, if/when a share comes back down to that price area sometime in the future - it's not elephants that have the longest memories - it's the stockmarket - and as often as not that powerful gap-up, when meeting the SP if/when its retracing back down to (in this case 72p/82p area) finds that the gap-up area reverses polarity and becomes a fearsome support for the SP to overcome. I'm tempted to say this SP retrace may run aground around here at that old gap-up area. The medim trendlines/monentum say: no it's still going down, and has not yet shown amy inclination of turning on it's heel. Who will prevail? The 72p gap-up or the current retracing downtrend? (If the downtrend 'wins' it could indicate serious loss of faith in DOTD for the forseeable) - In writing this I've almost talked myself into making an initial buy at 72p tomorrow :) BUT as I said below to C/Mate when I start guessing bottoms as often as not I can come unstiuck - whereas everytime I've obeyed my trendlines, even though they may turn to the upside later on at say I dunno 78/80p I often do far, far, better by waiting for CONFIRMATION from the prevailing trend to show the danger is over. Phew! I'm done :). Night night.
Hi Hewmmingway212, I think you've obtained an all round good, and sensible, buying-in price. Trend is still down but it's looking to turn soon, so all-in-all not a bad price to get in, at all. ".. I make most of my money from oversold businesses over a 3-6 month period ..." Sounds like a good contrarian strategy. Coincidentally on that strategy, I have a new similar "idea" in operation this year, and further to the acadmics research papers I posted to C/Mate, I also came across research by the same, on the performance of shares issuing a profit warning and from that research I have bulit up quite a list of previously 'hit' shares and from the research have postulated a likely date of where the recovery will start to reccover from, so as a "sideline" I'm going to try my hand at something not involving TA or charts or fundamentals but recovering profit-warning-hit shares. PFG - is next up in my sights this summer. (Second-up, is GNK from September although it's making a dash for freedom right now (might be it's divi payment due in June though) And more shares than I can handle from October onwards :) It's not so much as I think they will each recover from a certain date but more they are relatively "safer" commencing from that date. One of my own long held shares issued a profit warning yesterday and bang! It got hit with a 26% fall yesterday (I was expecting 22% to 24% according to the research notes), but already I have a plan of action (the first plan I let pass which is - always, always, sell on the day, the very moment you discover a profit warning has been issued. It's usually a day of total shock so an investor needs to know in advance what action to take. I decided against the first action and will take the second option which is wait a whole full year (it's a high divi paying share PHTM so that's why and also I don't want to crystalise a 4 figure loss - I reckon I can get it back - but slowly, years from now). Checked out that SYM you mentioned - and Geezalou - I've got too much to write on that here (positive and negative) also this is not the forum to discuss it. Where did you first become aware of it? Turns plastic into biofegadable slush eh? But what a lowly micro cap, pretty sure my papernboy earns mopre than the market cap valuation of SYM - Lol :) In summary - It frightend the begeezus out of me - and ignited the dark side speculator in me :) Putting it on a watch list - it's retracing heavily at the moment isn't it? Hmmm. Oops almost forgot - Gap-up's.- OH! Just used up the forum's bandwidth for posting, so will finish Gap-up's in a follow-up post - but after a cuppa :)
Good evening Chequemate. "The reason why I sold still stands ie the share price had fallen by a (more than) determined % from my buy in price and I didn't want to take a larger loss" Have to agree with you there. Each has to assess their risk tolerance at the price they enter the market. Got some accumalated academics research somewhere proving by decades of research that your 20% stop-loss methodology is the most profitable of them all. Personally a 20% stop loss is too much for my risk style (although in the past and recently I've lost tons more than 20% before selling (tons! :) as generally I run bare-Rrrsd-naked without stop losses at all !! But this research I came across is truly an eye-opener. Looked down the list of results and the next most profitable was 15% stop loss (That'll do me I thought) Worse results were 10% and 7 and 8% stop losses. Also rigid stop losses were a less profitable strategy than trailing stop losses. Trailing stop losses of 20% proved to the most effective, the most profitable, when back-tested against re-entering the same equities when the downtrend terminated and reversed upowards Only thing is, none of my ISA/SIPP brokers do trailing stop losses - only my spreadbetting accounts offer trailing stop losses, which I expect is similar to what most investors find - they'll let you place stop losses but have no provision for trailing stop losses. Yes got Jim Slater's Zulu Principle book (for all the good it's done me. When I finally found what suited my investing-self it's surprising what one's character sits comfortably with (Trend/momentum following). I'm mostly big caps and mid caps, as I regard these AIM stocks as the impalement of private investors but recently, even though I'm doing reasonably well I've decided to let in a little more "risk" with an AIM stock or two, but honestly I'm going "Euggh" like wotshername off 'To The Manor Born', as I prowl amongst these small caps and micro caps. "...will consider seriously buying back in. I would like to see some strength though first and am prepared to pay something off the bottom ..." - You've just highlighted in that sentence what I've long discovered I'm supposed to do, but half the time I mess it up doing the "off the bottom (which is always a guess)" bit. I have my strategy and if I followed it every time instead of second guesing it - I'd be far better off today than I am. I have determined it's back to disciplined strategy and put my "guessing" back in a box - because it always ruins things for me - strategies planned in advance always work out best. Jim Slater - generally read most things on his son Mark; even though he's small cap. Is that an online video you saw him in, or a seminar you visited in person? Regards.
Hi Velo, The time was right to sell one of my other shares and I had been mulling over what to do next with the spoils. Last time I was involved in this share I bought in at 71 when I thought it was good value, since then we have had positive results and an acquisition that sounds as though is going well. So IMO its even better value and as I mentioned in a previous post, I really like this company. Im no chart reader so you can tell more more about those gap ups, I make most of my money from oversold businesses over a 3-6 month period with a few LTH in there too. Check out SYM, think its going somewhere real soon :) Its fun to try and buy at the very bottom and sell at the very top. I never seem to quite nail it, however I'm no expert. Good luck :)
Good evening Velo, good evening DOTD holders. I very much agree with your views Velo. I sold out of DOTD mid March and for much of that time since have been near kicking myself for that decision. The reason why I sold still stands ie the share price had fallen by a (more than) determined % from my buy in price and I didn't want to take a larger loss. However, I have kept it on one of my watchlists in case things turned around and I would consider re-investing. I listened to a presentation by Mark Slater about a month ago, one of the very best fund managers, where he detailed what he looks out for before taking a holding in any company. In that presentation he talked about DOTD and what a good (longer term) investment he believes it to be and stated that he had increased his holding in DOTD when the share took a downward turn (exactly when I sold out!". Hmm, that made me think again seriously. GDPR was known about at that time, which has been a major concern for many companies of late. So, if Mark Slater thinks so highly of a company it needs serious consideration (imo). DOTD is one of MS largest holdings in his portfolio. Mark Slater is the son of legendary invested Jim Slater and follows key features of what is called "The Zulu Principle" written in the book of the same name. That book helped me turn my pretty desperate investment success (or lack of it) around. Although a little dated now, ie. it was written before the internet age, the basics remain just as relevant and I would recommed it highly to anyone. I will watch this space more, since I have been taken aback by the recent fall in share price and will consider seriously buying back in. I would like to see some strength though first and am prepared to pay something off the bottom (which is always a guess). Good luck all CM