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When it was announced that the company had gone into admin last June, I posted to say that administration could lead us to a better place than the 16p or so when trading was suspended.
What was I hoping for? Going by the company's RNSs prior to administration and the collaborations with big names, I was hoping that having Interpath, an experienced player in restructuring and value recovery, and by putting the 4D data and the 4D IP out in the market, would ensure that 4D would attract suitors, investors and/or lenders. I was less concerned about the type of deal: the important thing would be to have a number of sector players or funds interested in the company and then the right type of deal would emerge. Thus, the mistakes and a certain degree of incompetence demonstrated by the Board and the CEO in particular, in the last couple of years, could have been corrected. Management's incompetence was demonstrated in a number of ways:
- the failure to pay enough attention to the Oxford Finance loan terms they signed!
- the disastrous financial strategy i.e. not raising sufficient funds when they had the chance.
- the unjustified big pay rises in 2021.
- the failure to attract value-adding institutional investors.
- last not least, the way that they handled retail investors (the only ones still supporting the company) in the last stages before suspension of shares. For example none of the questions that I sent at the time were addressed.
However, hopes were vanished: we are stuck with a hedge fund (as opposed to proper institutional investors) and probably with the same management! It is also quite disappointing that after Interpath approached 50 entities in the sector that could have played a role in the future of 4D, we are pretty much where we were except that we now have significant dilution.
Nonetheless, let's look forward though and there are grounds to allow room for cautious optimism. We can pin our hopes on the possibility that news are to emerge soon from the clinical trials. That would be the only catalyst with realistic chances of materialising - the RNS on 10th Nov 22 re oncology is quite encouraging re MRx0518. On the other hand, IBS is unlikely to prove of much value to shareholders. Otherwise, the risk is that the company going into a spiral of further dilutions. Let's see and if only the company had been bothered to give us a proper update on the science front during the administration period!
May still invest in 4d shares in the range 6-8p in the home of making a short-term trade and if the SP climbt o a 2-4x multiple I will sell a major chunk of my holding. There are other and better games in town and DIVERSIFICATION should be a major investment requirement going forward.
Michael
Good points . Caution needed here. We are in a nest of vipers out for their own gain and DP is unquestionnably one of them. I am more critical than you. I believe this was a set up after the spike failed to allow a Placing. I think the s/p will be played like a harp 4-8p and we will get nowhere. But it is a penny or two better than liquidity. Lost a fortune here.
Sorry to hear. It did go pop rather quickly!
Hope you get at least some of it back!
It’s way too early to have any idea what the price will be. If the relist comes with some great data on MRX0518, positive updates on the vaccine collab with Merk then people will be all over this share. It’s all about progress now- let’s hope some has been made over the past 7 months