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Started: Rob95, 25 Jun 2021 12:40
Last post: Rob95, 25 Jun 2021 12:54
Just read about the Scheme Of Arrangement, which explains it all for me. I was told about this Share when it was 60p, but being the fool that I am I didn't buy in. Ouch!!
I know this Share has been suspended but, please excuse my ignorance, what is happening. Is the Share coming back?
Started: sain@vision, 22 Mar 2021 10:24
Last post: sain@vision, 22 Mar 2021 10:24
Anybody know when we are likely to receive the monies ?
Started: sain@vision, 25 Jan 2021 13:46
Last post: sain@vision, 26 Jan 2021 04:31
Yes - Alchemy's shares . They had accumulated a surprisingly small amount .The uplift probably just about covering their expenses .Possibly put too much reliance on Long and his recommendations
I guess its just Brandes to go to get them home and hosed
Connells
WHY?
Someone has picked up £4m worth of shares this morning
Started: sain@vision, 23 Jan 2021 07:46
Last post: majortom1, 24 Jan 2021 13:38
Interesting. Guess the gamble isn't that difficult to play when your using Skipton members money!
Major,
Yes,I guess that was it and only chose to abandon that strategy of waiting to see how pandemic pans out (still panning !) when Alchemy popped up to spoil the party
They never even entered the game with a stake
However in July with the arrival of Robin Paterson in July and Hoskings in August it had been clear that the share price had been well oversold
It was now a bargain basement buy . Clear and present danger of some heavy artillery arriving to claim the prize
A once in a lifetime opportunity for a diceroll which they could have well afforded to do with a limited downside withe stellar brands in the portfolio
Let's face it most of the damage done at CWD has been self-inflicted by the BODS All CWD needed was a steady hand of the rudder
I should also imagine Connells continuing interest was also difficult to keep confidential too for such a long period of time too.
Furthermore despite sales were flying stamp duty savings coffers filling up they would also have established that the the BODS had to do something to relieve the pressure from the banks
The lockdown had yielded the benefit of substantial saving some staff wages ,the time to pounce
The BODS staggering from one crisis to the next likely to jump into bed with the first girl that offered
if it wasn't Alchemy it was going to be Paterson or A.N.Other
Their hesitancy has cost them well north of £40m which was more than the total value of it late Spring
i imagine they were waiting to see ow the Pandemic was panning out.
I imagine a pipeline of 55% up-must be the only firm in country currently not trying to get the pipeline through any time fast.
Elephant in the room-if Connells have money to spend on this Aq why dont they follow Savills/Belvoir etc in paying back the Gov support monies. This will come back and bite the Skipton in my opinion from moral perspective.
With a potential longer hangover now of Covid and new strains -and pressure on both groups to shut branches for safety(both dinosaurs in remote working)- its bum twitching time IMO for Skipton. Plus when the group acquired RSA (a real basket case)the Connells management team, was far stronger and lets be honest younger !I can see no one on the board good enough to parachute into CWD-most remainers being ex RSA/Sequence. Profits have been falling year on year recently and Connells brand is a shadow of its former self
The CWD/Connells document certainly threw up a few interesting facts in the timeline.
Having signed off a confidentiality agreement on March 3rd it's clear Connells were already on the scene during or shortly after the proposed merger with LSL. So Connells would have been all over CWD like a rash conducting due diligence since probably February 2020 .
More than sufficent time to look under the bonnet and to acquaint themselves with the facts by the summer .
On the 3rd March the share price was around 259p . A further clean sheet agreement was entered into on March 12 th when the SP had slid to 146p when the pandemic started raising its head .
Then the pandemic lockdown struck so clearly that would have be a spanner in the works and halted proceedings and by the end of March the share price dive bombed to just 40p
However, it soon became apparent it was clearly an overreaction . Connells not only at their branches as well as CWD were experiencing deals were still crossing the line during May and April and also enquiries coming in thick and fast from prospective buyers .
In addition both companies benefiting on savings on staff wages from furloughing
A spring in everyone's step in June easing from lockdown as and then the stamp duty extension in July Increased activity in all sectors which hasn't stopped since as evidenced by the increases sales of 55% in Q4, year on year CWD privvy to all this .
Clearly apparent to Robin Paterson in July too having acquired a substantial holding
The share price was still below 100p mid July and 111p in m mid August significantly below that in March when Connells struck the agreement
If Connells had come in with an offer of 260-275p at that time then shareholders would have bitten their arm off
Now having to pay over £40m more
What on earth were they waiting for ?
Started: majortom1, 22 Jan 2021 17:08
Last post: sain@vision, 22 Jan 2021 17:35
Umbrella being offered by Connells when the sun starts shining !
What a strange set of events . Firstly Why didnt Connells strike in July when they had already conductd due diligence from March and were aware things had picked right back up . They certainly would have won the day at 250-275p then
Also why on earth did the BODS recommend a lowball offer from Alchemy knowing Connells were interested at 250p+in March and still on the scene
form the update today-.................a strong final quarter saw the year-end sales pipeline at £61.8 million, up
55 per cent. year-on-year!!
Started: sain@vision, 22 Jan 2021 16:18
Last post: sain@vision, 22 Jan 2021 16:18
Connells, Countrywide and their respective legal advisers entered into a clean team agreement dated 12 March 2020 (the “Clean Team Agreement”), having signed a confidentiality agreement on the 3rd March
Unlucky ,the SP was around 250p at the time pre-pandemic .Just a month later they could have started picking up shares at 40p
10 months of due diligence has effectively cost Connells a packet
Last post: majortom1, 21 Jan 2021 11:06
As Skipton are a mutual and ethically driven is there pressure for them to repay back the Gov support money as has Belvoir I note today. Can it be right that they are paying millions out for CWD whilst trousering all the support monies. And if they do will they actually acquire CWD or is this the actual reason why they are in a position to do so
Started: majortom1, 20 Jan 2021 10:12
Last post: majortom1, 20 Jan 2021 10:12
Started: majortom1, 15 Jan 2021 10:14
Last post: sain@vision, 18 Jan 2021 14:34
The CFO confirmed that a short trading update will appear with the notice to shareholders for the Connells vote
is there a stop date on the trading statement-looks late to me. Nothing in for this week.
The BODS want to get this home and hosed so you can rest assured they wont be bigging it up
The professionals will no doubt be cranking up the bills for all the abortive fees on the wild goose chases before they leave the stage
It wouldn't surprise me if these were in excess of £20m
100% the bottom line results will look very good. Massive cost savings due to Gov support and a swelling pipeline due to a mini boom. Just be interesting to see how they present the bottom line results.
Started: sain@vision, 15 Jan 2021 07:17
Last post: sain@vision, 15 Jan 2021 07:17
"LSL reports very strong trading in December with full year 2020 Group Underlying Operating Profit expected to be significantly ahead of 2019"
Although no doubt a difficult few months ahead
No doubt same rules apply at CWD except for the fact they have burned cash in all the corporate action.Classic BODS just as the green shoots appear they are heading for the hills
Last post: Reppyrr, 14 Jan 2021 15:03
Correction
Should of stated share incentive scheme wasn't performing....
Agree Bittertaste,
I am one of the 1,000s of ex employees who like you worked bloody hard for CWD and we were proud to work for them, the last share incentive should of been stopped many months before it did it was obvious the scheme was working but as usual the BODs didn't care about loyal hard working staff.
Spot on.Some people just roll over
Bittersweet
Sorry to heart that a final kick in the teeth .i really don't know how these"professional non-exec Directors "get away with it .seamlessly coast from one board to another picking up nice little earners ,teflon coated when the proverbial hits the fan .their reputation remaining intact .
Just think Platt sits on the board of Tesco as a Non-Exec
One question ? How come there has been so little noise from the Directors of the brands on how CWD is run .Surely there must be sufficent disgruntled Directors capable of mounting some sort of challenge? These are professionals who have allowed their careers to be tossed around like pancakes
Sadly I didn't and as a former employee who was virtually forced to take early retirement from them in the last 12 months my once hoped for nice addition to my pension of a fairly decent amount is now, at Cornell's T/O price, worth less than a 10th of that. Bitter doesn't even come close and i suspect there are many more out there like me.
Last post: sain@vision, 14 Jan 2021 06:01
Excuse typos
Inventory has shrunk to below 15,000 although still banging them out
Yes I understand that the arrival of Platt with her retail strategy would have heralded an exodus of those who disagreed
However since Pltt's departure then the BODS have carried on making costly errors yet still no cries of dissatisafaction Particularly LSH whose reputation is based on executing property deals with clients and ensuring that completions take place
How embarrassing can it be for the professional fees earners that they couldnt even sell themselves properly foolishly announcing a deal had been done when it hasn't
What about all those time served directors at Hamptons and John D wood who respect their bbarnds -surely some of them have some balls
I am also surprised that those who have left to have expressed their dissatisfaction more vocally These non -exec Directors have it too easy and a lack of accountability
Itwasannounced totheworld thatlSH hadbeen sodwit
Sain. As a former CWD employee of many years standing perhaps I can give you my opinion. With very few exceptions anyone with either the knowledge, ability or desire to promote themselves forward actually remain within Countrywide at the required level. It was frightening to see how many capable MD's and many at director level were either forced out during the Platt era or simply could not stomach the crazy ' retail ' strategy which she and her appointed successor to Bob Scarff tried to implement. Those that remained were happy to go along with a strategy they knew to flawed ( and privately admitted was madness ). What do these people who were then responsible for the almost total financial collapse of this business say when questioned by any prospective board or employer on taking up another role elsewhere? Pretty sure Connells won't be fooled for too long post takeover.
Last post: majortom1, 13 Jan 2021 18:27
Maven Investment Partners Ltd-who are these guys
Last post: Adsharpe, 11 Jan 2021 19:05
Sequence and Connells staff all the way up to MD level run separately
I don’t think it would be logistically possible for a regional manager to cover a mixture of CW and Connells offices
Maybe MD level they could bring the roles together but it’s a huge business to navigate combined.
Main headcount reduction will be in head office roles I feel.
Agree with the comments regarding any takeover in so much that the people who should be worried are sadly ( with a few exceptions) all wearing a CWD hat currently. Two Regional Managers covering the same patch? Two MD's ? etc. etc. I don't think so. Branch staff fairly safe I suspect as they were not the reason why CWD got into a mess and based upon my own experience no one listened to your opinion anyway. The yes men/women who went along with the crazy ' retail ' strategy when they privately knew it to be flawed are the ones who should be worried if the Connells deal succeeds and i for one would like to hear how they try to dig themselves out of that hole. Trust me I'm an Estate Agent!
Started: sain@vision, 11 Jan 2021 03:19
Last post: josmith123456789, 11 Jan 2021 14:02
Shareholders have taken a massive hit. Had hoped to make back some of my losses from buys a few years back. Have held on in the hope, fingers crossed there is still time for another party to join.
This will also hurt some of the staff, acquisitions always have employee fallout especially where there will be crossover in functions .. not a great time to be on the job market
But what about those holding form 3 years ago .Not so rosy!
Yes a very sad state of affairs. It's enough to keep you awake at Night !
With a sector buzzing with M&A ,you would have thought somebody would be prepared to chance their arm here
Where are all the shakers and movers who should be all over this like a rash ?.
So not only did the BODS manage CWD badly they have also made a complete Horlicks of the exit ,a suicide in instalments
You wouldn't want them to sell your house for you !
Events took a turn for the worse in November 2019 with the "sale" of LSH for £38m gross. Not only did they count their chickens before they hatched they renegotiated their banking arrangements on the strength of it just as things were picking up again on the coalface
So with an abortive sale they entered 2020 effectively in breach of banking covenants and a bagful of abortive costs and immediately on the back foot .Still convinced that the Dane would complete the purchase of LSH they entered into merger talks with LSL .
This all fell apart as still a no show from the Dane and left with yet more millions of abortive costs as LSL pulled out and still at the mercy of their banks now dancing to their tune .
Then the pandemic and I must admit I thought that it might all fall apart then.
However it became clear in May that the lockdown meaures had done CWD a cashflow favour.
First and foremost the expensive wage bill was furloughed and they were allowed to defer HMRC payments
Meanwhile all that momentum in Jan /Feb ,the sales weren't falling apart but delayed so as lockdown opened up in May / June they hit the ground running
Opportunity knocks ,stamp duty relief and definitely a time to join the game and fill your boots Paterson quick to spot but rebuffed by the BODS keen to steamroller the Alchemy deal thru.
However the market continued being robust in early Autumn which the BODS hadn't anticipated whilst the rest of the world had .The Alchemy deal no longer holding any attaction whatsoever
Long had to go and Connells arrive as the cavalry
I reckon if Alchemy had come on the scene a couple of months earlier with just a slightly better offer they might have stolen the show I reckon Long was convinced the deal would happen
At least shareholders can thank Connells for upping the ante. Many shareholders who arrived here in May enjoying a 5/6 bagger
Started: sain@vision, 10 Jan 2021 17:32
Last post: Adsharpe, 10 Jan 2021 19:58
Connells are picking up a bargain here
Once they’ve amalgamated the head offices and Merged IT Services this sleeping giant CW will rise.
Local brands are some of the most well respected in the business,
this is good news for CW front line staff who will now be led by an exec board with experience
This is good news for Connells/Skipton who acquire the largest property business in the UK and now own 3 huge players (Sequence, Connells and CW)
This is bad news for investors who know that with a strong steady leadership team they could turn around their investment. If you invested 7 years ago and still hold the shares, you may feel like they’ve lost so much value you may aswell put it all on red with a new experienced and dynamic exec board and keep trading as CW is currently
Fair enough very few staff members would have £400k -just illustrating a point £100k reduced to £3,500 is enough to cause a few problems .
Starting to look like a done deal as many private investors might be happy to take the money and run.BODS no doubt be put out to grass with a fat cheque so I should imagine any update will be short on detail and left til the last moment
Professionals will have been enjoying a huge feesfest with all the corporate action during 2020 to sink the figures Should imagine a couple of fat uns for Long &Creffield too
You have to beg the question is why did Brandes invest here if they aren't willing to up the ante just as the green shoots have started
More importantly if they want to break it up Connells are there to pick up some of the brands
Here is their Mission Statement
Brandes, Your Value-Investing Specialist.
Amid constantly changing markets and shifting investor preferences, some principles endure. Brandes Investment Partners believes the value-investing philosophy of Benjamin Graham—centered on buying companies selling at discounts to estimates of their true worth—remains crucial to delivering long-term returns. This singular focus has allowed Brandes to help clients worldwide with their investment needs since the firm’s founding in 1974.
Started: sain@vision, 9 Jan 2021 01:57
Last post: Reppyrr, 10 Jan 2021 13:12
Apart from the BODS doubt if many CWD held shares to the value of £400k, last share incentive scheme was £150 max over 5 years, but still a massive loss after the 50 share to 1 share placing some time ago.
Apparentally there will be a short trading update included in the Scheme Document being prepared for the Shareholders meeting.
For such an important decision shareholders should have a long detailed one
You have to feel sorry for the long term holders here.Some of whom will be CWD staff , some recently retired or facing retirement who will have no chance of recouping their losses if the Connells deal goes through
Those holding £400k of shares in June 2014 who have recently or facing retirement would have been looking to a reasonably comfortable retirement
Not only not having received any dividends recently those shares now worth less than £13k if the Connells offer succeeds
Last post: ControlzFreak, 7 Jan 2021 23:42
I note that its very difficult to complain or email board directly at present. So sorry if I have an axe to grind.
I was a holder previously to my daughter renting for Uni a Countrywide property in September last year.
Apparently its acceptable to provide people with accommodation which has leaks from the roof, and black mould growing on the walls. Its only been since Setptember/October since the complaint went in, and despite small attempts, it will only be Monday when someone is again quoting for the work, not carrying it out.
According to their subsiduary thats acceptable. Its ok if she is paying rent for a flat that it not liveable in.
The reference from countrywide talked about renting without the risk, doesnt seem to be true.
Disappointed to have invested in what appears to be a scum landlord.
Yes their first foray .They hadn't even built a shareholding up prior to their ist bid so I guess it was Alchemy's approach that stirred them into action
Connells squiring shares direct
Started: sain@vision, 7 Jan 2021 04:43
Last post: sain@vision, 7 Jan 2021 08:24
So Schroders throwing the towel in brings them to 52% which brings them ever closer . Its a shame especially for all those long term holders who will be denied an opportunity to try and get their money back
Its not over yet !
Well Brandes anyway as Oaktree are (i) OCM Luxembourg Castle Holdings S.à r.l.; (ii) OCM Luxembourg EPF III Castle Holdings S.à r.l.
Mix in all the small funds with 0.5-2%.,some disgruntled private shareholders Plenty of share action since the revised bid so somebody might be looking for a bit of arbitrage
A good trading update before Feb .might harden resolve
Maybe just clutching at a few straws!
Started: sain@vision, 7 Jan 2021 03:09
Last post: sain@vision, 7 Jan 2021 03:09
https://propertyindustryeye.com/alchemy-issues-statement-regarding-offer-for-countrywide/
So the plot thickens Alchemy confirming
Brandes 6.1%
Oaktree 18.2%
So the baton gets handed over to these to play kingmaker
Started: majortom1, 6 Jan 2021 11:58
Last post: sain@vision, 6 Jan 2021 22:59
Major
Well they still need 75%. Neither Brandes nor Oaktree have declared their support. I am not up todate on their total shareholding but mix in a few other small investors and its definitely not home and hosed
Brandes could easily risk another £10m hoovering up shares below 395p today to threaten this and test Connells resolve and I certainly dont think 395p is their best offer .They could easily pay 500p a share for a once in a lifetime opportunity
so why not have a bash. The downside is pretty copper bottomed Connells arent going away
In the next few weeks hopefully some news for H2 What it will show is the incredible pick up and return to operational profit in no uncertain terms
Most of the expensive goodwill has now been written off From decay to growth
The bottom line diminished by all those extra costs the BODS have incurred faffing around
Any fall off in Q2 will be just temporary
In addition
Connells have demonstrated to the financial lending community that CWD has a value The company has been ruined with an inept set of BODSs so anybody turning up here with a half decent track record would garner support
Sain-surely this is a done deal now with Connell Group. Alchemy are out. No one else I can think off in Agency would want the risk.
I have no doubt if it stays as CWD and a management team put out to external headhunters an assemble of a high performing team is out there.Issue is it has been with the internal recruitment team to sort the solution.
If the deal is done at end Q1 wont any buyer be buying a diminished pipeline-ref Stamp Duty timeline.
Started: sain@vision, 6 Jan 2021 03:35
Last post: sain@vision, 6 Jan 2021 03:35
Real opportunity going begging here for someone with leadership potential to arrive and make this sing rather than a cheap sellout
The situation CWD find themselves in today is purely down to mistakes made by the BODS incurring hundreds of millions of debt unnecessarily
The last few years has been a damage limitation exercise by the BODS which has only served to put a bigger gash below the waterline
The professionals bill over the last 15 months incurred in corporate action must be well over £15m as they stagger from one piece of corporate action, to another
Knife blow to those in the frontline banging them out been hawked around like a bag of spuds fast reaching its sell by date facing possible redundancy in duplications
https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/branch/dixons-estate-agents-a****s-green-birmingham-28272/
The oldest listing not spoken for is September and they have 38/44 away
Its enuff to break your heart it is
Started: Whatprice, 5 Jan 2021 12:25
Last post: sain@vision, 5 Jan 2021 12:57
Yes just goes to show how naive the BODS were buying with hard cash and not including some paper
as part of the consideration . Absolute zero incentive for those acquired to stay on the premises with no skin in the game and have to be answerable to a bunch of lightweights they wouldn't even consider employing
In reality very few former business owners who sold out to CWD mostly for ludicrously excessive sums indeed remain. The majority either swiftly departed to enjoy a well earned early retirement, promoted their siblings as part of the sale and then like plenty simply waited for their 18 month lockout period to end and set up again around the corner. Of those I spoke to personally the last thing on their mind was getting involved with the day to day running of CWD as it was considered a desk job sat with a lap top at best ( albeit well paid ) but too far removed from the coalface to be of interest to someone used to calling the shots with hands on involvement.
Last post: sain@vision, 4 Jan 2021 12:22
Whatprice Yes indeed but what about those equity holders of businesses selling out to at CWD picked up a fat wedge been content to remain ,collect a decent salary treading water possibly using the time to build up their own property portfolios Waiting for the right moment to break out
Perhaps sent out an advance party to start up funding them behind the scenes
More than capable of running the business who can quite happily stick 2 fingers up if the BODS don't like what they hear
Unfortunately Sain you are correct in so much that the people who actually had a positive influence on the business have long since departed being either pushed out or just couldn't stand by without voicing their opinion during the disastrous Platt led era. Those that remained were more than happy to promote a ludicrously flawed business model which they knew to be madness but as a Regional MD for example on circa 100k and a big mortgage to pay happy to go along with it in public. Some very good people left CWD as a consequence of refusing to back this 'retail' vision taking their knowledge and experience with them and like me then took no pleasure i can assure anyone interested in seeing the place then run by clueless sheep only intent on lining their own pockets.
I should think Connells will be more concerned that shareholders will be updated about H2 before the meeting in February
I should imagine that the figures will be robust despite the horrendous feesfest enjoyed by the professionals as the BODS lurch from one piece of corporate action to the next
You have to beg the question surely there must be someone amongst the brands who is prepared to stand up and question the BODS or are they all just salarymen & women
Wait for the Connells Chip later on down the road
Started: sain@vision, 2 Jan 2021 14:18
Last post: 3rdtimearound, 2 Jan 2021 16:26
It should be £20 a share to truly reflect the future potential of the group and brands.
Yes definitely still half a chance but getting Paterson onside was a major coup .Noticeable that there is no mention of either Brandes & Oaktree agreeing to throw their lot in with Connells so they still have a strategic role to play
Brandes have done their proverbials on Countrywide so far. Would they be prepared to gamble a further £15m to increase their stake to force Connells back to the table and claw back some of their losses
You would have thought Connells might be prepared to stretch to 450p a share