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I take your point but cvs is a growth company buying up existing independent vets so this will influence what they achieve over time. https://www.ukpetfood.org/information-centre/statistics.html the stats on dog and cat ownership at the uk pet manufacturers association is a little iffy but seems to indicate that 2023 estimates show a declining number of cats and dogs owned. Perhaps post covid people are reverting to previous behaviour. I like to think the majority of people love their pets and will put them first but as the cost escalates they will think twice about having another one when their pet dies. In addition with cost of living pressures some will limit their use of vets. Insurance if they have it will vary in what they cover. eg cruciate operation - mid range package is around £6k so if you have a £4k limit you have to find £2k, and it is not a planned expense then this occurs - so xmas for the kids is not so happy this year for the woman with an 8 year old lab who has just undergone this op. With a revert to trend after COVID, plus those who give up on onership this could well offset additional owners in rented accommodation particularly if rented accommodation is less secure for the longer term. CVS will rely on buying up vets for growth in a shrinking pool so then consolidation is likely to continue growing. Im not saying cvs cant grow, I just think their end market may not be as growth oriented as they are as a company - in terms of pet population or spend per head.
The very positive trading update suggests people love their pets and always have and will continue too....with the rental market relaxing rules on pet ownership it is likely many folk excluded from pet ownership previously are likely to enter the pet market in 2024.
Costs are clearly, like in any aspect of life, a consideration, but it appears the cost of companionship/pet ownership etc is one people will put before others, as pets in most families come first. 🐕🐈⬛🐇
Hi. I have vested interests in the pet world with 3 dogs and lots of dog training interests. A straw pole of dog training friends indicates many are dropping their habit and not replacing dogs when they cross the bridge. Too expensive due to vets, insurance and pharmacy tie ups, plus of course the large dog food companies. Also a lot of advice from the 'experts' is standard vested interest driven and not best advice. Then there are the so called behaviourists who do a short online course and set themselves up as 'experts' for the gullible fools who pay their elevated charges then wonder why their problem dogs get worse not better. Ever wondered why rates of cancer in dogs are rising so fast with shorter lifespans (clue look at the ingredients of what you are feeding them - would you give your kids cornflakes and chewsticks to eat everyday?). Many pet owners bought their pets during lockdown and may now find it can be more expensive to keep them than a horse when problems start to arise. Im on the fence where this is going. For me a good vet is invaluable but their ability to do an effective job is hindered when they become a profit centre with a large group. Dogs are just revenue streams and owners are the mugs who foot the bill. With the market sewn up largely by groups now there is more and more only a have or not have choice. The medium term drivers of this choice is affordability. I would not be surprised to see companies like cvs enter the dental market which operates in a similar way.
Why would it move when it is simply in line with expectations..ie no nasty surprises.
The SP was cratered by the CMA and probably the economic outlook which again seems to be in line with expectations or even a bit ahead.
The market often seems to over react to CMA reviews which turn out to have limited impact…..my guess is that this will rise 20% when the CMA result is known…..IMO there are likely to be increase price disclosures to customers and some undertakings not to load prices of on-premises sales of medicines, there should be greater clarity about the level of local competition that has to be maintained…..I would bet that most people use the nearest Vet and few choose based on price. It is private healthcare after all and the vets can charge more or less what they want to.
A bit more admin, a few forced disposals……not much to get too excited about…and to compensate - then divert some growth investment where it has more effect (eg Australia).
Anyone care to put the downside case?
Joke share this is
...the shares didn't budge!
Fair value...(that'll do...)
2,122.9291p
26% discount
Updated 14/11/2023
Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im0jnSNYB1U
11 mins in
Medivet has ambitious plans to expand so are obviously not too worried about outcome of CMA Report
I think this is shorts taking advantage of low volume through their algo sells, they are the 5cum of the earth imo
Just a reminder as the share price appears to have forgotten CVSG is in excellent shape 👍
Revenue increased by 9.8%, to £608.3m from £554.2m,
The Group delivered adjusted EBITDA growth of 13.0%, to £121.4m from £107.4m
Profit before tax increased by 49.7% to £53.9m from £36.0m
Proposed dividend per share (p)7.5p+7.1%
Cash generated from operations (£m) £107.9m+15.9%
https://www.cvsukltd.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/CVS-Group-plc-2023-Annual-Report-and-Financial-Statements.pdf
The whole market is up - even Aston Martin...
Yet CVSG is down... what the actual!
What do they know we don't - or what do we know they don't...
Hopefully it's the latter
I might half jump off at 1700p...
It is moving up because the SP is so undervalued and the CMA debacle will evaporate. Just don’t forget to jump off at 1700p .
Not just that - many of the Covid pets are breeds that are problematic...bulldogs for example. Anything with short noses or lots of flappy skin...
OH is a vet, if I haven't mentioned that before ;)
The big money is in referrals - she went to visit Dick White's referral centre last week - HUGE referral business at Six Mile Bottom near Cambridge.
Agreed, Covid pets will only just start needing more than the usual treatment in the next year or so overall I suspect.
Any ideas on why the price has show up in the last hour?
Of course smaller dividend means more to reinvest. The *theory* is that dividend payout % has little effect on overall long term return to the shareholder. But a small % payout does make it less attractive to some investors..
I'm quite happy that they keep the money to reinvest as demand for vet services is only going to increase...all those Covid pets getting to ages when they start to need more expensive treatments
This all started with the fear of the CMA enquiry. Price is now not reflective of the business IMO. Results look solid, only thing is the Divi is tiny % which wont help, other than that just need some good news (or the CMA to sort itself out) and this will fly back the other way.
I bought back in here again today, great Business. I would not worry about parking your cash in here if you are going long. I am hoping it will be pushing 1700p in the next few weeks.
Sold 560K, bought 1.74M. Suspicious how SP could drop 4% today
Maybe general market decline of up to 10% hasn't helped...
Becoming a target for a takeover?
Have to sit on my ~£4k's worth of shares for now...
It's getting silly now 🤪...2100p 6 weeks ago to 1400p today in company that is sound and as stated by the brokers ' the Competition and Markets Authority’s review is unlikely to result in a negative outcome''